Duncan: Jamaica poised to grow even after IMF exits
Published:Tuesday | February 26, 2019 | 8:08 PM
Keith Duncan, co-chairman of the Economic Programme Oversight Committee, EPOC, Duncan described the budget tabled in Parliament earlier this month as “responsible” and one which provides a glide path for the final review of the Jamaican economy by International Monetary Fund.
“The budget is balanced, conservative and measured,” said Duncan at the EPOC press briefing on Tuesday.
The Estimates of Expenditure for fiscal 2019/20 – which is yet to be debated and approved by Parliament – at $803 billion is $30 billion or four per cent higher than the previous year. The capital budget remains conservative.
“Capital expenditure is expected to increase from $68 billion to $72 billion in 2019/20, so we are not seeing a real increase,” said Duncan.
The final IMF review is set for the June quarter.
“The Minister of Finance and the Prime Minister said that are we moving away from the IMF, so Jamaica will be on its own. Therefore, I believe that the level of Net International Reserves, GDP levels about 93 per cent Jamaica is in a good place to be able to move on its own,” said Duncan.
The fifth review under the current Precautionary Standby Arrangement, PSBA, began this week and will be by March 8 by a visiting IMF team. The IMF mission is assessing Jamaica’s performance in meeting the targets set for the end-December 2018 period.
The final review is to be conducted in the June quarter.
“Based on the preliminary results for performance to date through the end of December 2018, the GOJ is on track to meet the targets for the quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets for the IMF PSBA, with the exception of the inflation target which triggers a staff consultation clause whereby the Bank of Jamaica will consult with IMF Staff on the outlook for inflation and the proposed policy response,” said Duncan.
For the review period, April to December 2018, revenue and grants of $449 billion exceeded the budgeted amount of $437 billion by 2.6 per cent. Duncan added that tax revenues of $389 billion outperformed the IMF PSBA target of $360 billion and Government of Jamaica's first supplementary budget target of $378 billion.
The EPOC co-chair also noted that while still unable to achieve high levels of growth, Jamaica made tremendous progress to set the foundation for increased growth in the future.
“Jamaica is poised to take off," he said. "We should be happy that we can take the bull by the horns as a country to remain discipline for the programme between 2013 to 2019 and we have missed very few targets.”