Elizabeth Morgan | Implications of a second Trump administration for Jamaica, CARICOM

Well, referencing my article from last week, by early morning on November 6, it was known that a majority of Americans who voted, with eyes and ears wide open, took the leap. They chose to give Donald Trump a second term as the 47th President of the United States of America (USA).

At this point, it appears that the Republicans have control, of not only the presidency, but also of the Senate and the House. That is a democratic process at work – the will of the American people prevailed. As said last week, we here in the Caribbean and around the world are onlookers, but the results of the US general elections matter to us. They impact us. This is the most consequential of all the elections held this year.

The Prime Minister of Jamaica, Andrew Holness, and the Leader of the Opposition, Mark Golding, in keeping with international protocol, joined other leaders in CARICOM and the world in congratulating president-elect Donald Trump on his victory.

VICE PRESIDENT, ADVISORS AND CABINET

For the analysts in Jamaica, other CARICOM countries, and the secretariat, they now need to look very closely at the administration’s personnel designate, beginning with the vice president-elect, James David (JD) Vance – lawyer, ex-US Marine, politician, and author.

He was elected to the US Senate in November 2022 and served from January 2023 to the present. He had come to national attention with his biography and its movie, Hillbilly Elegy, about being white and working class in the states of Kentucky and Ohio. He actually grew up in Ohio. Vance was a surprising pick as Trump’s vice president. His wife, lawyer Usha Chilukuri Vance, is the daughter of Indian immigrants.

JD Vance is important, as CARICOM leaders could be dealing with him at the executive level.

Key Trump advisors are given as: Susie Wiles, who managed his campaign; Lara Trump, his daughter-in-law, co-chair of the Republican National Party; Dana White, longtime friend; Stephen Miller, known for his hardline positions on immigration issues; Richard Grenell, a foreign policy advisor; Robert Kennedy Jr, environmentalist and anti-vaccine activist; and Elon Musk, billionaire businessman and owner of the X social media platform, and others. These are the people who have the ears of Donald Trump.

Trump is now in the process of establishing his Cabinet, vetting candidates. From media reports, so far he has selected his chief of staff, Susie Wiles; a deputy chief of staff for policy, Stephen Miller; Tom Homan, for immigration (the deportation policy); Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, as US Ambassador to the UN; and former Congressman Lee Zeldin to head the US Environmental Protection Agency.

Of particular importance to CARICOM is the post of secretary of state (foreign affairs). Senator Marco Antonio Rubio of Florida (of Cuban descent) is the designated secretary of state. He has served on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. This is a process to watch, as lower level State Department appointments are also important, as well as the appointment of ambassadors. Other important Cabinet posts are secretary of the treasury and the US trade representative.

Most of these posts require congressional approval.

POLICY ISSUES

Some main policy issues are as follows:

Bilateral/regional levels – trade and aid are important issues for the region. Donald Trump has proposed imposing tariffs across the board on all items imported into the USA. Refer Gleaner article of September 18 on the implications of the Trump tariff proposals.

There seems to be some views at the local and regional levels that such proposals will not apply to CARICOM, as the countries’ exports are small and the USA has a trade surplus with CARICOM. There is no guarantee about this. CARICOM trades under the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI), the World Trade Organization (WTO) waiver for which expires in September 2025. CARICOM countries also trade with the USA under its Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), which, in fact, has been suspended since 2020, with its renewal under consideration. These are unilateral provisions. One should not assume that they will be renewed.

There could also be indirect trade policy impacts. It has happened in the past that US-provided sugar and ethanol quotas disappeared practically overnight. Aid to the region could also be under scrutiny.

The next issue is immigration, as Donald Trump has pledged to deport over 10 million undocumented immigrants, including people who were born in the USA (dreamers), possibly people married to US citizens, and those with temporary protection status.

On security, CARICOM has raised with the USA the issue of illegal guns coming into the region which are used to commit crimes. The Republican Party has not been very supportive of effective gun control measures.

Haiti – the situation of Haiti is both regional and multilateral. The US is an important player in addressing the current turmoil in that country. A question is the extent to which the Trump administration will remain engaged in the resolution process.

Multilateral issues – in the multilateral arena, it will have to be seen whether President Trump continues his 2016-2020 negative attitude to various multilateral institutions in which he proposed reducing funding, monitoring the votes of members, among other things. The United Nations (UN), it is reported, is warily awaiting the return of the Trump administration.

It is known that the previous Trump administration did not support climate change and withdrew from the Paris Accord. This is an important issue for CARICOM. The UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) is now in progress in Azerbaijan and will be the last meeting attended by the Biden administration. Trump is seen as a threat to climate change mitigation and other environmental regulation measures.

The World Trade Organization was also another multilateral body in the crosshairs of the Trump administration. Given Trump’s current talk of increasing protectionist policies, work in this organisation might make even less progress. The body could be moribund and global trade could be in crisis.

So, Jamaica and its CARICOM partners need to be seriously considering the implications of a new Trump administration and developing strategies going forward for US/CARICOM engagement at the bilateral, regional and multilateral levels.

Elizabeth Morgan is a specialist in international trade policy and international politics. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com