Global shipping container pool to decline – Drewry

THE GLOBAL pool of shipping containers for the current and coming years will contract, according to a recent analysis by maritime research and consulting firm Drewry. The forecast is influenced by continually high inflation rates worldwide, which have suppressed demand, and growing geopolitical instability affecting investor confidence, collectively reducing the growth outlook for global trade.

Drewry’s latest report on the container equipment market indicates an anticipated decline of 2.6% in the container pool for the current year, with further contraction expected in 2024. The last instance of a year-over-year decline in the container pool was recorded during the global financial crisis, which saw a 3.7% decrease in the total number of containers in service between 2008 and 2009, dropping from 27.9 million twenty-foot equivalent units (mteu) to 26.9 mteu.

The most significant oversupply of container equipment is observed in the 40ft high-cube segment. The excess stems from heightened demand for this container type in late 2020 and throughout 2021, accounting for over 85% of all dry freight containers produced in 2021, a year that witnessed a record production of over 6.6 mteu. The surplus in the 40ft high-cube category is expected to persist until 2025 unless a substantial reversal in trade dynamics occurs.

Ocean carriers and leasing companies have significantly curtailed their container purchasing programmes in 2023, with projections indicating that these entities will take delivery of no more than 1.1 mteu of new containers this year. Drewry anticipates a gradual recovery in purchasing plans for 2024, primarily driven by the replacement of ageing containers, with a more substantial increase expected in 2025. This surge is linked to the container production boom between 2006 and 2008, generating an estimated 9 mteu, which is approaching the end of its operational lifespan.

The expected recovery in container production from 2024 is contingent on a modest rebound in global trade and the continued penetration of container shipping into other freight transport sectors. This includes an expansion into specialised reefer shipping and perishables within the airfreight industry as well as a capturing of market share from roll-on/roll-off and breakbulk vessels in the movement of project and out-of-gauge cargo. These trends are anticipated to drive demand for reefer and special dry freight containers, such as open-tops and flatracks.

Drewry estimates a seven per cent increase in the global container pool by 2027 compared to the levels in 2023, reflecting the expected recovery and growth in the years to come.