Japan scientist ‘very pessimistic’ Olympics will happen

TOKYO (AP):

A Japanese professor of infectious disease says he is “very pessimistic” the postponed Tokyo Olympics can open in 15 months.

“To be honest with you, I don’t think the Olympics is likely to be held next year,” Kentaro Iwata, a professor of infectious disease at Kobe University, said yesterday, speaking in English on a teleconference. “Holding the Olympics needs two conditions; one, controlling COVID-19 in Japan, and controlling COVID-19 everywhere.”

Toshiro Muto, the CEO of the Tokyo organising committee, expressed his own reservations 10 days ago. Since then, the organising committee and the International Olympic Committee have said there is no ‘Plan B’ other than working for the Olympics to open on July 23, 2021.

“I am very pessimistic about holding the Olympic Games next summer, unless you hold the Olympic Games in a totally different structure such as no audience, or a very limited participation,” Iwata said, speaking at a forum arranged by the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan in Tokyo.

“You have to invite so many athletes from many, many places, which is not very compatible with this COVID-19 infection that is causing a pandemic. Japan might be able to control this disease by next summer. And I wish we could. But I don’t think that will happen everywhere on Earth.”

Japan was spared during the initial stage of the coronavirus outbreak. But cases are now spiking, particularly in Tokyo and other large cities. As of yesterday, there were about 12,000 detected infections in Japan and about 250 deaths.

Devi Sridhar, professor of Global Health at the University of Edinburgh, said holding the Olympics may hinge on finding a vaccine.

“I think it all depends on whether we have a vaccine,” Sridhar said late last week. “And so I think if you talk to some of the scientists, they’re saying we’ll have a vaccine by the fall and we can manufacture it quickly and we can get it out to people. If we do, then I’d say, actually, we have a great chance of going ahead with the Olympics.”

Sridhar said without a vaccine, the Olympics in 2021 were unlikely. This could also apply to the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, which are to open in China in February – just six months after the Summer Games are to close.

The Olympics draw 11,000 athletes, with 4,400 Paralympians also attending – all the athletes with large staffs of trainers, coaches and support teams. Athletes are to stay in a sprawling housing complex on Tokyo Bay. The Olympics draw thousands of foreign visitors, and depend on air travel and hundreds of hotels.