FOR 2014, international trade is expected to grow between 4.5 and 5 per cent. Growth in the shipping industry is directly linked to growth in international trade, but I believe that this projected growth will have only marginal impact on the volume of cargo handled at our ports, and by extension, our economy.

There are two primary factors that will potentially affect the volume of cargo handled during the course of this year. These include the performance of our domestic economy, as it relates to local imports and exports, and the performance of the international economy as it relates to transhipment cargo.

With regard to the domestic economy, the restrictions imposed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Agreement, coupled with the steady decline in the value of the Jamaican dollar relative to other major currencies will adversely affect how much money is available to fund the import and export goods.

With plans afoot to privatise Kingston Container Terminal (KCT) Services Limited, and the proposed development of Goat Islands, it is anticipated that there will be an increase in the volume of construction materials handled at the ports. However, it is not expected that there will be any tangible progress in this regard before the fourth quarter of this year, and as such, domestic cargo volume will be flat, at best. Beyond 2014, however, if these projects come to fruition, then we should see significant growth in port traffic.

With respect to trans-shipment cargo, Jamaica could see minor growth this year mainly because of the expected growth in international trade. This will directly result from mature economies such as the United States and Europe emerging from recession and the fact that Jamaica remains a major transhipment hub in the region.