Yi Fuxian | Is China too old to get rich?

In March, Chinese Premier Li Qiang announced an ambitious economic growth target of five per cent for 2024.

In a subsequent commentary, former World Bank chief economist Justin Yifu Lin endorsed the government’s target, predicting that China’s economy would grow at an average annual rate of five to six per cent over the coming decade before slowing to three to four per cent between 2036 and 2050. Lin also suggested that China could achieve high-income status in 2026, if not 2025.

Given China’s bleak demographic outlook, this seems highly unlikely.

Lin notes that 26 countries had less than half of the United States’ GDP per capita when their populations began to age. He argues that since these countries continued to improve their economies after this point, China can, too.

The World Health Organization defines the start of an economy’s ageing phase as the point where the share of those aged 65 and older exceeds seven per cent – a demographic milestone China reached in 1998. By 2023, the share of Chinese people over 65 increased to 15.4 per cent.

Historically, no country has managed to achieve four per cent growth in the subsequent 12 years after the elderly made up 15 per cent of the population. The average growth rate for high-income countries during this period is just 1.8 per cent.

An ageing population affects production, consumption, entrepreneurship, and innovation, eroding economic dynamism. As the median age and the share of people aged 65 and older increase, GDP growth slows. Consequently, Lin’s prediction that China will achieve an annual growth rate of five to six per cent between 2024 and 2035 is as improbable as an 80-year-old winning a marathon.

Lin emphasises China’s latecomer advantage, but this is offset by its rapidly ageing population. Demographic problems and shrinking labour forces have caused GDP per capita in Spain, Greece, and Portugal, respectively, to fall from 73 per cent, 66 per cent, and 51 per cent of the US level in 2008 to 39 per cent, 27 per cent, and 32 per cent, respectively. Along with other ageing societies such as South Korea and Taiwan, these countries are now at risk of falling back into the middle-income trap.

China’s ageing crisis is reminiscent of what happened in Japan and Germany, whose labour forces began to shrink in the mid-1990s. By 2023, Japan and Germany’s GDP per capita had fallen to 41 per cent and 64 per cent of the US level, respectively, from 154 per cent and 110 per cent in 1995.

Similarly, China’s median age in 2023 was the same as Japan’s in 1995 and Germany’s in 2000, while the share of people aged 65 and older matched Japan’s in 1996 and Germany’s in 1995.

Over the 12 years that followed these demographic milestones, Japan’s average annual growth rate was 0.8 per cent, and Germany’s was 1.4 to 1.5 per cent. Based on these historical trends, China’s growth rate is likely to slow to 3.0 per cent by 2028 and fall below that of the US from 2031 to 2035.

China’s GDP per capita reached US$12,681 in 2023, falling short of the World Bank’s high-income threshold of US$13,845. With an average annual increase of 2.1 per cent over the past two decades, the threshold is projected to rise to $15,715 by 2028 and $18,219 by 2035. Assuming that China’s per capita GDP growth slows from 5 per cent in 2024 to 3 per cent in 2028 and 1.5 per cent in 2035, its GDP per capita is expected to reach $17,893 over the next decade. The widening economic gap between China and the US will further impede China’s ability to cross the high-income threshold.

Moreover, several factors are expected to put downward pressure on the renminbi, complicating China’s efforts to escape the middle-income trap.

First, China’s labour force is shrinking rapidly, and its industrial value chain is shifting to countries participating in the government’s Belt and Road Initiative. Western countries’ attempts to reduce their dependency on Chinese supply chains could further weaken China’s manufacturing sector, eroding the country’s trade surplus.

Second, as economic growth slows and local governments grapple with an escalating debt crisis, Chinese interest rates are expected to fall.

Lastly, low fertility rates around the world could lead to low inflation and even outright deflation. China’s persistent low fertility rate, combined with insufficient domestic demand and excess capacity, is likely to intensify deflationary pressures, widening the interest-rate gap between the renminbi and the US dollar.

To be sure, if the high-income threshold were to remain unchanged, China might manage to reach it. But its ageing population would likely prevent it from escaping the real middle-income trap. The country’s household disposable income accounts for only 42 per cent of its GDP, well below the global average of 60 to 70 per cent.

The 2022 high-income threshold translates to per capita disposable income of US$8,307 to US$9,692, typically indicative of a large middle class capable of exerting pressure on the government.

By contrast, China’s per capita disposable income was just US$5,565 in 2023, and its middle class remains a minority. To cross the high-income threshold, China would need to boost its GDP per capita to US$19,000 to US$22,000. But achieving this requires far-reaching reforms.

Above all, China must raise household disposable incomes and tackle its demographic crisis, both of which require a political and economic overhaul.

Given that China today is even more averse to economic reforms than it was when Deng Xiaoping launched his market-oriented reforms in 1978, rapid change is highly unlikely. The required transformation may take several decades, if not longer.

Yi Fuxian, a senior scientist in obstetrics and gynaecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, is the author of Big Country with an Empty Nest .© Project Syndicate 2024www.project-syndicate.org