Iván Duque Márquez | The Dominican success story

In late May, Dominican President Luis Abinader was re-elected with 58 per cent of the vote, securing the majority needed to forgo a second round of voting. In addition to Abinader’s resounding victory, his Modern Revolutionary Party retained its overwhelming parliamentary majority, after having swept February’s municipal elections.

These electoral successes can be largely attributed to Abinader’s technocratic approach to governing, underpinned by his commitment to democracy, freedom, and a market economy. This style of governance contrasts sharply with the demagogic populism – and the attendant ideological polarisation – that plagues many countries in Latin America and the Caribbean.

While leftist LAC governments have driven away investors, created uncertainty, and reverted to resource nationalism and growth-dampening regulatory measures, the Dominican Republic has a thriving private sector, especially in tourism, infrastructure, green energy, digital services, and agriculture. The country has become a beacon of effective and efficient public management, while also setting itself apart from the rest of the region by improving living conditions for its most vulnerable people.

The numbers speak for themselves. The Dominican Republic’s GDP is expected to increase by 5.1 per cent in 2024, making it one of LAC’s fastest-growing economies. Moreover, since Abinader took office in 2020, the government has increased social spending, opening nearly 45 hospitals and more than 500 medical centres.

It has also expanded access to education by establishing more than 120 institutions of learning, improving hundreds of school facilities, and overseeing the enrolment or re-enrolment, after the pandemic, of some 320,000 students in early childhood centres and primary and secondary schools.

In a region beset by high crime rates, Abinader’s focus on security has yielded impressive results. His government has implemented police reforms, including training more than 3,000 officers in human rights, citizen security, and social coexistence. In 2023, the homicide rate – already one of the lowest in the region – fell nearly two per cent, to 11.5 per 100,000 inhabitants. The country has also advanced the fight against drug trafficking, leading to a large increase in seizures. By comparison, the drug trade has expanded in populist-governed LAC countries.

The recipe for Dominican prosperity also includes policies to support job creation, reduce labour informality, and strengthen the social-protection system. Another ingredient is tourism: Abinader’s government has made bolstering the sector a high priority.

The Dominican Republic received 10.3 million visitors in 2023, more than any other Caribbean country, and is seeking to capitalise on its popularity by developing and promoting new destinations beyond the booming resort town of Punta Cana.

To be sure, serious challenges lie ahead. In its second term, the Abinader administration must remain committed to fiscal stability and increase revenues in order to continue expanding social programmes. It will also be crucial, in light of the climate crisis, to protect at least 30 per cent of the country’s marine and land areas by 2030, and to accelerate the energy transition by adding renewable capacity and facilitating access to affordable and reliable clean-energy sources. And achieving the country’s goal of becoming the Caribbean’s technological hub will require investment in data centres, other infrastructure, and job training.

Implementing this agenda would help the Dominican Republic meet its aspiration of becoming the first Caribbean country to join the OECD. It would also demonstrate the effectiveness of pro-investment, pro-business reforms, and position Abinader’s government as a leading example for other emerging markets.

Of course, the future of the Dominican Republic will be shaped by the travails of Haiti, with which it shares the island of Hispaniola. Since Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry’s resignation in March, the country – which has long suffered from rampant inequality and institutional decay – has descended into anarchy, with gangs filling the power vacuum. A famine or an escalation in violence would trigger a humanitarian catastrophe.

But the Dominican Republic cannot absorb any more migrants, nor can it solve a crisis that requires collective action. The international community must therefore help devise solutions to Haiti’s problems, rather than remaining indifferent to them.

Far from a caudillo, Abinader has brought economic prosperity to the Dominican Republic – an outcome that the Puebla Group, comprising leftist parties and leaders from across LAC, has failed to achieve. It serves as a reminder that moderate politicians will almost always be more effective than populist demagogues in the long run, as they prefer actual results to ideological bluster.

Iván Duque Márquez, a former president of Colombia, is Chair and Distinguished Fellow at the Wilson Center’s Iván Duque Center for Prosperity and Freedom.

© Project Syndicate 2024

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