Ned Brown | Coronavirus: More bad news for Jamaica

Last Friday, during a tour in Atlanta at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, President Donald Trump made the following statements:

“The disease is contained in the US.”

It is not; and is still spreading.

“Anybody who wants to be tested, will be tested.”

Categorically false, as only a very limited number of testing kits are available.

“My uncle was a brilliant scientist, and like him, I understand the facts around this disease as well as the experts.”

Oh boy, you decide.

Over the weekend, I spoke about the spread of the disease in the United States with chairman of two powerful committees in the US House of Representatives. They have already been alerted that Congress may be called into recess to:

a) Keep the members from assembling in Washington, DC and spreading the disease among themselves and staff, and;

b) Remain in their districts and states to monitor the situation.

What does the above have to do with Jamaica? In addition to Health and Wellness Minister Christopher Tufton having to deal with the health issues in Jamaica, ministers Edmund Bartlett and Nigel Clarke will likely have to deal with the negative impact on tourism and the economy.

Transmission Point

Jamaica’s gross domestic product is impacted somewhere between 35 and 50 per cent by tourism. Nearly two-thirds of the five million-plus tourists who come to Jamaica annually are from the US. There are large numbers from Canada and the United Kingdom, and growing numbers from Italy, Germany and Spain.

We now know that airplanes, airports, resorts and cruise ships are places conducive to people coming into contact with others who might have the disease.

Let’s say for a moment that a healthy US tourist, staying at a Jamaican resort, comes into contact with an Italian tourist infected with the disease. After several days of incubation, the American tourist gets back on an airplane filled with other American tourists headed home to disparate parts of the States. You can envision the exponential spread of the disease resulting from ‘tourism interaction’.

Many events, both in the US and Europe, that bring large numbers of people together have been cancelled over the past two weeks; and more will come. The US will want to avoid quarantining its citizens, as China and Italy have. However, the US government is on the verge of issuing guidelines for ‘essential’ and ‘non-essential’ travel to help reduce exposure, and hopefully contain the spread of the novel coronavirus.

It does not take a genius to understand that taking a vacation, and coming into contact with persons infected with the disease, is in the latter category. The worst is potentially yet to come for Jamaica.

Ned Brown is a Washington, DC political adviser based in Charleston, South Carolina. His forthcoming book, ‘The Caribbean Golden Era: Jamaica 1946-1962’, will be released in fall 2020. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.