Editorial | No questioning crime statistics

Last year’s reported 19-per-cent reduction in murders, meaning that 265 fewer people were intentionally killed in Jamaica than in 2023, are important statistics which the vast majority of the island’s citizens will, unquestionably, be happy were achieved.

There are several reasons why this is significant, not least of which is the sanctity Jamaicans overwhelmingly place on human life, notwithstanding social optics that sometimes suggest the opposite. Further, the decline in homicides, if it is sustained, is good for the country’s sense of security.

Indeed, the country’s high crime rate, and particularly homicides, physically and psychologically diminishes people’s sense of freedom. It circumscribes their capacity, or willingness, to actively engage in community life.

The murder statistics are important in another way. Given people’s wish to preserve their own lives, they are the ones that have the greatest bearing on citizens’ sense of security. And critically, data on homicides, compared to all offences, are the ones that are most likely to represent the real state of the specific category of crime.

Victims, for various reasons, but mostly because they believe that little or nothing will become of it, often choose not to report crimes. Robberies and burglaries may be responded to with resolutions to be more careful with personal safety or to install additional security and surveillance apparatus around homes.

Murders, however, get reported, generally in real time. Dead bodies are not easily and readily hidden. And missing persons – who, unfortunately, may eventually turn up dead – are usually reported so to be.

LIMITED ABILITY

The point is, there is very limited ability or opportunity to undercount. And neither is it in the interest of the constabulary to attempt to do so with this or any other category of crime. For even in the absence of statistics, people had a good grasp of their lived experiences.

In that regard, this newspaper has no questions, as was asserted by the police chief, Kevin Blake, that crime data published by the Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF) are “rigorously compiled, analysed and transparently shared with the public”.

Indeed, the police’s return in recent years to the regular publication and updating of crime statistics is a welcome development. This access enhances the ability of interested persons to analyse crime data, although the constabulary could improve its offering with additional breakout of data sets and trend analyses.

But this newspaper having confidence in the police statistics does not put them beyond question by individuals. And neither would scepticism, even if absurd, from a few individuals equate to an attempt by malign forces to erode the public’s trust and confidence in the JCF, as Dr Blake seems to suggest is the case.

FULL EXPLANATION

Perhaps a better response would be a calm, full explanation of how the police statistics are compiled and of the verification processes to give integrity to the system.

Indeed, as Dr Blake asserted, “transparency remains the cornerstone of public accountability”. Even when it is assumed that perceived protagonists are either deeply ignorant or deliberately troublesome.

With respect to the 2024 crime statistics, while we cheer with the JCF over the decline in serious crime, especially murders, we are cautious of, and warn against, intoxicated celebration. Which, of course, Dr Blake has himself acknowledged.

So, while we support the idea of a broad partnership against crime and criminality, in the context of Jamaica’s democratic norms, certain facts have to be taken into account and which should help to inform, as well as the articulation of Jamaica’s approach to the problem.

Notably, even with 265 fewer murders in 2024, there were still 1,139 intentional homicides, or 42 per 100,000. This remains among the world’s highest, which impinges on people’s sense of security.

Further, the optimists will be reminded that Jamaica has been here before. It periodically enjoys a downward dip, only for the numbers to spiral again.

What Dr Blake suggests is different this time, is the improved professionalism and strategic orientation of the constabulary, as well as the trust it has, in recent years, developed with the public. The Gleaner hopes that holds true and translates of a continued and greater fall in the crime numbers.