Denise Eldemire-Shearer | Ageing population and a decreasing workforce

The ageing of the Jamaican population has not happened overnight. It started in the late ‘60s with the improvement of basic public health and the introduction of population control policies. We are now at the goal of 2.7 million identified then. It took 40 years.

As early as the 1990s, the demographic shift was recognised as beginning. Over the years, discussions around the increasing number of older persons have focused on providing for older persons in need, pensions and increasing healthcare costs in the later years. Ageing is multifactorial and the ageing of the population is actually associated with a broad range of challenges and opportunities beyond health, social, and financial some of which are now appropriately being discussed.

One such is population ageing which affects the size and composition of the workforce. In 2007, the International Labour Organization (ILO) predicted the Caribbean labour force would start to decline after 2020.

The original approach of considering older persons as needing care has shifted to include meeting the needs of active functional older persons and how to prepare for an ageing society while still discussing pensions and the changing health profile. One of these areas is the falling number of people under 30 in the workforce because of the falling birth rates and migration. Since the declining number of those under 45 is a result of falling birth rates, it is natural to suggest increasing the birth rate as a solution. But, is it the only or the best suggestion?

It is important to note that while the young age falls, there is an increase in the 45-60 age group so the older population, now 375,000, has not yet stabilised and will continue to increase and is expected to be 25 per cent of the population by 2050. An increased birth rate will in the medium term (25 years) increase the numbers in the workforce but this will not solve the immediate need. It will also, in the long term, continue to increase the older population. In considering whether the proposed increase in birth rate is viable, one must examine the circumstances identified as underlying the need for population control in the ‘60s.

These concerns included preserving natural resources, protecting the ecosystem, and improving quality of life. Have these changed or improved to the point of being available to meet the needs of increased numbers? Water supply, congestion on roads and hospital services, for example.

WIDE TOPIC

Addressing the needs associated with an ageing population is a wide topic. There are other policy initiatives that could be considered to address the immediate problem of workforce issues. The discussions need broader participation from groups affected, such as worker organisations and the private sector. The challenges have been identified and it is time to identify solutions and approaches for each concern. There are several ways to increase the workforce. One is increasing the retirement age, and there are several considerations in the area.

In 1982 when the retirement age was set at 60, life expectancy was 70. Today, it is 78 and, at age 60, it is projected a person has 20-25 years more life. Programmes around active ageing have promoted wellness and independence in older persons, resulting in higher functional levels now than in 1980. The 2011 national study reported 92 per cent of older persons as functional. A discussion around an increase in retirement age would need to examine several options. Would it be across the board or for selective groups identified as having shortages? One African country increased the retirement age of academics to 70. Barbados has increased the overall retirement age to 67.5. What would work for Jamaica?

Other areas to be discussed if increasing the age were accepted include the differences between younger and older workers and their exposure to new technologies. Training, retraining and uptraining are considerations. As are adapting work processes and work environments to better support older persons. Another option is flexible retirement with post-retirement opportunities. In some countries, older persons are being offered pension plans that reward later retirement. Job arrangements that allow a combination of income from pension and work are another alternative.

THREE COMPONENTS

The ILO has been discussing the issue of older workers since 1990, stressing the three components needed are lifelong learning, flexibility and health. Lifelong learning allows older persons to adapt to new technologies, increase digital work compliance, and increase self-confidence and sense of worth. It is accepted that while older workers can be productive and add value to the organization they will have more chronic disease and health needs and to be successful increasing the retirement age of older workers should be accompanied by appropriate workforce health programmes.

A public education programme is vital, as studies have shown there can be strong resentment toward keeping older workers. Ageism will provide challenges and has to be combated. Another workplace consideration is that changes in consumption patterns occur in the ageing population, and this provides opportunities as it can lead to new job opportunities around providing care. Discussing the ageing of the population is very complex and each area is related to other areas. At some time soon, the challenges and opportunities need to converge into an integrated holistic approach. Importantly, the dialogue is broadening and getting more attention, but must continue to include discussion around person and pension adequacy and viability and healthcare.

Dr Denise Eldemire-Shearer is Professor Emirita UWI Mona Ageing and Wellness Centre Regards. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com