Byron Blake | COP28 and its implications for small island states

In my article ‘Mirror, mirror on Dubai …’ published in The Sunday Gleaner of December 31, 2023, I lamented the colossal failure of COP28 to even create a mirage of addressing the Greenhouse gas emissions issue with the certainty that the mean increase in global temperatures will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2025 and 2.0 degrees by 2040. This portends disaster for small island states (SIDS) with some destined to disappear beneath the sea.

I thought I was being radical until I saw an article in Fortune by Christiaan Hetzner headlined ‘Climate activist Al Gore blasts COP outcome as biggest failure in history’ – ‘it reads as if OPEC dictated it word for word’”. In his official statement issued on December 13, 2023, the former US Vice President was more diplomatic and posed his concern as a question: “How much longer will the world have to wait before all nations summon the political will to overcome these narrow special interests and act on behalf of the future of humanity? His frustration was palpable. As one who has been deeply involved in these negotiations since the early 1990s, he has seen 30-odd years wasted and no end in sight.

In my over 50 years of observing and participating in regional, hemispheric, and global conferences, including the 1999 World Trade Organisation (WTO) Conference in Seattle, which ended days ahead of schedule in confusion, I have never seen such melancholy at the end of a conference. The fact that the conference extended some 20 hours and through the night was no explanation. This has now become standard practice as chairmen negotiate compromised outcome documents. And apart from small delegations, participants rotate. The closing session and exit are usually animated either because there have been genuine breakthroughs, or have achieved their desired objectives, or are satisfied that they have survived to fight another day, or just out of politeness to the chair and host. Here, even the winners seem to recognise that the outcome condemns planet Earth, on which they, too, live, to irreversible and dangerous change.

CHALLENGE FOR SIDS

My first reaction was that the stark abandonment of the target of 1.5 degrees Celsius with its implications was the worst decision for Jamaica, the Caribbean, and small island developing countries. I have revised that conclusion radically. It was the best outcome. The SIDS, members of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS,) now know that they have been abandoned to the vagaries of a very disturbed mother nature. They have no reason to continue the diplomatic approach, hoping for sensitive actions by the industrialised and other countries with vested interests in the current system. They have not been moved in 30 years. AOSIS members must now depend on themselves, strategising and working cooperatively. They must figure out the best way to survive as long as nature allows. I suggest that once they have made that determination, they consider:

1. A meeting among themselves at the highest level to

a) Confirm and make public their determination to work together and concentrate their resources on the most strategic priorities for their survival. The most critical areas would logically be adaptation and human resource development. Adaptation was, in fact, the priority they had agreed on in the 1994 Barbados Summit. They made the tactical decision later to contribute to the global mitigation objective as a demonstration, and a means, evoked the positive responses needed from the major emitters, but it has backfired. The major emitters have, instead, increased their GHG emissions every year.

b) Issue a declaration that they can no longer participate in global processes where they effectively give legitimacy to actions designed to lead to their certain demise.

c) Make a declaration to mobilise their nationals, wherever domiciled, to lend their skills and resources to the survival of their homelands.

2 Establishing priority areas for adaptation in their countries and regions such as

a) Spatial planning to minimise economic and heavy social activities in areas adjacent to or on the coastlines and in low-lying and flood-prone areas.

b) Developing or strengthening building codes as appropriate to the known local hazards in specific areas.

c) Stimulating food production with a focus on production systems, crops, and animals, and varieties that are more heat tolerant and require less water.

d) Promotion of water capture, storage, and retention systems.

e) Development of energy systems based on local resources, including biomass.

3 Refocus the content, systems, and modes of delivery to include

a) In addition to the STEAM/STEM subjects, the reintroduction of subjects such as geography and geology with greater emphasis on the study of local conditions.

b) Agriculture and architecture

c) Cultural studies.

This year is going to be hot. Mean global temperatures in the three last months of 2023 exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius. This is no time for SIDS, whether in the Caribbean, Africa, or the Pacific to be coy. The boat has been overturned. AOSIS must rock it and rock it hard for any chance of right-siding it. And the global environment is not good.

COP 29 is slated to be held in Azerbaijan, whose economy, according to Google, “is anchored in oil and gas production, which accounted for roughly 47.8 per cent of the country’s GDP and over 92.5 per cent of export revenue in 2022”. While Azerbaijan, like Mexico, is a non-member of OPEC, it cooperates with that organisation in the “OPEC plus” format. It is not rocket science to recognise that it will be much weaker than the UAE, where, to paraphrase Al Gore as quoted earlier, OPEC dictated the outcome. in any effort to secure a stronger position against fossil fuels in COP 29. AOSIS cannot lose another year to get itself into an even worse position at the end of 2024 than 2023.

Byron Blake is former Jamaica deputy permanent representative to the United Nations and former assistant secretary general of the Caribbean Community. Send feedback to ambassadorblake@gmail.com.