‘POLITICAL POSTURING’
Analysts sceptical over claim by parties they’re ahead in local gov’t election race
Published:Tuesday | January 16, 2024 | 12:11 AMKimone Francis/Senior Staff Reporter
Simultaneous claims by Jamaica’s two main political parties that they are ahead in the local government election race have been met with scepticism by political pundits who are demanding a release of internal poll results for proof.
Dr Dayton Campbell, general secretary of the opposition People’s National Party (PNP) on Monday countered Prime Minister Andrew Holness’ argument of a strong Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) lead in most divisions on Sunday, calling it a false.
According to Campbell, it is the PNP that is ahead in 12 of the 14 municipal corporations following internal audits.
“I’ve heard the assertions from the prime minister and the Jamaica Labour Party with the same polls but the truth is that if they were so confident they would have announced an election,” said Campbell at a press conference held at the Office of the Leader of the Opposition in St Andrew on Monday.
Still, neither of the two organisations has furnished the findings of their commissioned polls for public consumption and assessment ahead of the widely expected local government elections, constitutionally due next month.
“There are reputable polls and there are worthless polls,” argued former politician Ronald Thwaites, who successfully contested general elections on a PNP ticket.
“Neither party has said, as far as I’ve heard or read, who did the polls; what the scope of the interviews were. All of those things normally add to their credibility or take away from it.”
The former education minister in the Portia Simpson Miller-led Administration said the claims are to be expected and that it is within the nature of an extremely competitive political system to portray your organisation ahead.
“We have a system where there is no silver medal. It’s a gold or nothing … I expect these statements to be made but I have no basis on which to verify them,” Thwaites told The Gleaner.
Lloyd B. Smith, who also ran and won St James Central for the PNP, called the claims “political posturing”.
“The polls have indicated that it is going to be a close race one way or the other. So for either to be claiming that it is ahead in any major way is wishful thinking,” said Smith.
The most recent public opinion poll conducted by veteran pollster Don Anderson reflected the two parties in dead heat with 23 per cent of the electorate indicating that they will vote for the JLP versus 22 per cent for the PNP.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent. One thousand and fifteen Jamaicans were polled between November 24 and December 7.
Thirty-seven per cent said that they will not vote while 18 per cent expressed uncertainty.
That aside, former Cabinet Minister Derrick Smith is backing the JLP to win convincingly.
“It’s not unusual in the run-up to an election that both parties claim that they are going to be victorious. People assume that it’s going to be close but I don’t have a feel right now from where I am that that will be the case.
“I believe that the JLP is in a much better place now than it was a few months ago and I believe they will win,” said Smith, who served as national security minister in the Bruce Golding administration.