Economist urges politicking parties to stick to facts
Published:Wednesday | January 17, 2024 | 12:13 AMLivern Barrett/Senior Staff Reporter
The country’s two main political parties should avoid trying to “weaponise” data about critical economic indicators, an economist has warned.
However, if the two parties cannot resist the urge to cite economic data in their public squabbles amid the impending local government elections, they must at least ensure that the information is accurate and serves to edify the public, economist Keenan Falconer cautioned.
An assertion by Prime Minister Andrew Holness on Sunday that in 2016 his incoming administration did not inherit a growing economy ignited the latest squabble between the governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and the Opposition People’s National Party (PNP).
The PNP rejected the claim in a statement on Monday, claiming, through its junior shadow spokesman on finance, Cleveland Tomlinson, that the Jamaican economy had a growth rate of 1.4 per cent in February 2016 when the party handed over the reins of government to the JLP.
It claimed that this was in contrast to an economy with a growth rate of negative 0.6 per cent near the end of 2011 and days before the PNP took office under the leadership of then Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller.
‘Low’ foreign reserves
Tomlinson claimed, too, that when the PNP took office in 2012 it faced “critically low” gross foreign reserves of around US$0.9 billion, sufficient for only about six weeks of imports and increased that figure to “nearly US$3 billion” by 2016 when it demitted office.
However the JLP, citing data from the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) and the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), blasted those figures as “patently” and “dangerously false” in a statement yesterday.
STATIN reported quarterly growth rates of 1.6 per cent; 2.1 per cent; 0.4 per cent and 1.5 per cent, respectively, for the 2011 calendar year, JLP General Secretary Dr Horace Chang noted in the statement.
Citing figures from the BOJ, the country’s central bank, the JLP noted, too, that gross foreign reserves were US$2.8 billion at the end of 2011 and US$2.7 billion by the end of January 2012, a far cry from the figure claimed by the PNP.
At the end of the PNP’s term in office in 2016, gross foreign reserves stood at US$2.7 billion, the JLP said, citing BOJ data.
“Starting with US$2.7 billion and ending with US$2.7 billion does not constitute a ‘significant improvement’ in the level of gross reserves.”
Falconer said the data shared by the PNP on the country’s foreign reserves in late 2011 and early 2012 “would be incorrect, based on the data that is published by the Bank of Jamaica”.
Further, he said the data cited by the JLP on the growth of the economy in 2011, along with the PNP data on debt and inflation, are correct.
“I don’t think economic data is something that should really be weaponised on a political platform. It should be for the purpose of edification rather than political one-upmanship,” Falconer told The Gleaner yesterday.
“While both parties have had their successes and failures, the economy is something that definitely affects all Jamaicans, regardless of political persuasion. So accuracy is really the best policy from both sides.”
He said any falsehoods put in the public domain will undermine the “local collective effort with respect to our economic programme”.
“The truth is, both parties have made gains across a wide spectrum of macroeconomic and fiscal indicators so it is really in the best interest, both locally and internationally, for that to be made clear and accurate to both local and foreign audiences,” the economist posited.
He urged the two parties to ensure that they verify data before publishing “because it is not difficult to verify from local and international sources”.
Said Falconer: “It is really hard to combat or counteract disinformation if that were to happen.”