Strategising for victory

Amid the low voter turnout in the 2016 local government elections, 14 divisions saw winning candidates raking in more than eight per cent of the votes cast, with 11 of those divisions in Kingston and St Andrew.

The remaining four such divisions were in St Catherine (three) and Clarendon (one).

The Corporate Area divisions are all in constituencies which traditionally vote heavily for either the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) or the People’s National Party (PNP) over several election cycles, with the challengers receiving negligible support. Many eventual losers were tossed into the political arena at the very last minute with the parties acknowledging the futility in extending energies and financial resources in trying to reverse long-established voting patterns.

Heading the list of constituencies where those divisions are located are the JLP’s bedrock of Kingston Western, represented in Parliament by Local Government Minister Desmond McKenzie, and St Andrew West Central, represented by Prime Minister Andrew Holness. These are followed by the PNP bastions of St Andrew Southern, represented by Opposition Leader Mark Golding, and St Andrew South Western, represented by PNP Chairman Dr Angela Brown Burke.

Brown Burke was a councillor (Norman Gardens) and mayor when the elections were held in 2016. She has since been elected member of parliament of St Andrew South Western, following the 2017 retirement of former PNP President and then Opposition Leader Portia Simpson Miller.

The 2016 local government polls saw a nail-biting finish in the Rae Town division in Kingston with Rosalie Hamilton claiming victory for the JLP by a single vote after a magisterial recount. The result allowed the JLP to take control of the Kingston and St Andrew Municipal Corporation with the council split 21-19. A loss for the JLP in Rae Town would have resulted in a 20-20 tie in the corporation with the reins going to the PNP based on the popular vote.

Since then, the PNP has lost two of its councillors – Kari Douglas (Trafalgar) and Venesha Phillips (Papine) – to the JLP, giving the governing party a 23-17 majority. Both Douglas and Phillips are set to face the electorate on JLP tickets when the long-overdue polls are called.

FOCUS ON THREE AREAS

Lawrence Rowe is the PNP’s caretaker for the violence-plagued Kingston Central constituency in which Rae Town is nestled. Turf wars and violence have frequently resulted in bloodshed in the constituency, especially within Spoilers – a community which usually shows strong support for the PNP.

Residents told The Sunday Gleaner that no one knows the genesis or reasons for the war, which is punctuating life with gunfire, grief and the agony of senseless deaths, including those of children and teenagers on the cusp of adulthood.

Neither does Rowe.

“Rosie Hamilton won the Rae Town division for the JLP by one vote. The PNP’s candidate was Shawn McGregor, but he is now replaced by Dane Lynch. Shawn is now Dane’s campaign manager. I believe Dane can unseat Rosie in Rae Town, but there are three communities which he must focus on,” Rowe told The Sunday Gleaner.

He named the communities Rae Town Proper – from the area of the beach “all the way up to Windward Road”, Tel Aviv, and Rose Gardens as key areas.

“We need to pull out our support in the communities in spite of the violence, which may impact the turnout on election day. If we can pull out all our numbers, ... we should be able to topple Hamilton. We have seen where the PNP keeps getting closer and closer to her,” he added.

GANG WARFARE

Hamilton survived a gun attack in 2007, gaining victory even as she laid at the Kingston Public Hospital in doctors’ care. She then lost the division in 2012, but regained it in 2016.

The JLP stalwart said she has been targeted by gangs in the area for her efforts to negotiate peace between the warring factions.

Yesterday, she told The Sunday Gleaner that her margin of victory in 2016 would have been significantly higher if it weren’t for the murder of a party worker on election day, which resulted in the police cordoning off the area and preventing individuals from going out or coming in.

“People don’t understand the margin on election day, but it would have been much bigger. As you see in the 2020 [general] election, this division won the constituency for MP (Member of Parliament [Donovan] Williams by over 1,000 votes. PNP can’t cut off dat,” she said confidently.

“The Rae Town division is not really a marginal one. The PNP and JLP have a number of votes in there. It is made up of four communities – Rae Town, Spoilers, Tel Aviv and Southside. The PNP have three communities and the JLP have one. If you are rational, it would be in the PNP’s interest at all times to win the division because they have strong support in three of the four communities, but the JLP has always won it,” she explained.

HEADING INTO FINAL STRETCH

The elections announcement is expected shortly in keeping with the minimum requirements of the Representation of the People Act of five clear days between announcement and nomination day, minus Sundays and public holidays, and a minimum of 16 to 23 days, minus Sundays and public holidays, after nomination for the holding of the polls.

The announcement must be made by McKenzie, the local government minister, and would give electors a chance to vote for local representatives for the first time in eight years after multiple postponements since November 2020, when they first became due.

On Saturday, PNP General Secretary Dr Dayton Campbell said that both major parties are aware of the politics at both the municipal and constituency levels.

“Results are often determined by those in the middle and [this] guides where resources of all kinds are expended. In the Corporate Area, for example, we know where the results will come from, and the other party knows, too. About 10 divisions in Kingston and St Andrew will determine the control of the council, so it gives a clear indication of how to mobilise,” he told The Sunday Gleaner.

“When we make our pronounce-ments, it is not just based on talks. It is informed by data. After that, all we need is the proper mobilisation and communication to get things in place on election day,” Campbell said.

He also disclosed that because of the urgency, the PNP has identified a replacement for the late Maxine Salabie, who was set to contest the Friendship division in Westmoreland. Out of respect for her memory, he said the party is delaying publicly announcing that person until Salabie is laid to rest.

Sunday Gleaner calls to JLP Chairman Robert Montague were unsuccessful all of last week, but the party yesterday called all its potential candidates to a meeting.

A JLP source acknowledged that patterns from bedrock constituencies and divisions were clear indicators in devising campaign strategies.

“Kingston and St Andrew council was won by a single vote. The same thing happened in Clarendon, with the Toll Gate division won by a single vote and which allowed [Winston] Maragh to be mayor. So, yes, the voting patterns are the best indicators of how to campaign,” said the official, who asked not to be named out of concern that it may be viewed as disclosing campaign strategies.

Patterns also allow the parties to put some municipal corporations in the winners’ enclosure with relative ease, said the source.

“There are about 30 of the 228 divisions which determine the outcome of the elections and control of the councils. Both parties, I believe, know all those divisions and each is categorised differently. Some may well be called problem divisions with complaints and complainants. So both parties, including the JLP, will pay attention to those,” said the JLP official.

Electoral Office of Jamaica data show that in the 2016 local government polls, some 94 of the 214 remaining divisions had candidates with winning margins between 60 and 79 per cent. Fourteen were in the same Kingston and St Andrew constituencies. Seventeen of St Catherine’s 41 divisions were also won by those margins.

BANKING ON TRACK RECORDS

Vanrick Preddie is the councillor for the Hellshire division in St Catherine South, which is represented by multiple-term PNP MP Fitz Jackson. Preddie, a member of the PNP, received 70.9 per cent of the votes polled to earn a seat in both the St Catherine and Portmore municipal corporations.

He is confident that he will be returned.

“My term is about service and the evidence of that service is everywhere in the division and also in Portmore. Nothing that I have done I have put any orange colour on ... . When I’m doing things, I do it for the benefit of the community of Portmore – and Hellshire, in particular. There are welcome monuments all over Portmore and in different divisions and bus stops. Drains are cleaned and they benefit everybody, and recently, I concreted sections of a retaining wall that collapsed,” Preddie told The Sunday Gleaner.

Preddie said while driving through the community, near the health centre, one Wednesday during heavy rains, he saw many “old people” with bandages sheltering in less-than-comfortable positions and standing in water.

“I looked and said, ‘My God! They could be my mother and father, and definitely my grandparents.’ I said, ‘No, we have to treat our old people better.’ So I went to my office and just start sketching the design for a bus stop. Within four weeks, it was completed,” he said.

He said many persons were insisting that he inscribe his name on the bus stop, but he refused.

“This is not Preddie bus stop. It may be built by Preddie and I will use it if needs be, but I do not have to go around putting my name on things. The people know. So I am not afraid to put my record of performance to the voters in the division,” he expressed with confidence.

His potential challenger, Richard Mendes, could not be reached by The Sunday Gleaner.

The PNP won 10 of the 12 divisions in Portmore in the last local government elections, but lost one councillor to murder (Ainsley Parkins, Southboro, 2023) and another to a terminal illness (Yvonne McCormack, Greater Portmore East, 2021). The party retained the Greater Portmore North division after its councillor, Michael ‘Fisher’ Edwards, died in 2017.

The JLP councillors in the municipality are Joy Donna Brown (Gregory Park) and Courtney Edwards (Independence City).

Yesterday, Brown said she is confident of a return, telling The Sunday Gleaner that the JLP will increase its numbers in the municipality.

“I can speak for myself and I can tell you I have done the work. Six months after my election, I began zinc fence removal in the division. I was born here, I was home-delivered, and that was my address for many years of my life. I now live elsewhere, but it’s just a stone’s throw away,” she said.

“I don’t have any doubt that I will win again. No doubt at all. I am not here to tear down the other side, but I know what I have done. I believe when you do the work, the people will reward you. So I am putting my work to the electors,” she said, adding that Edwards, too, will retain his division.

“And others, too” will triumph, Brown predicted.

“I was first elected in 2016, and I got one shot. I have made the best use of the one shot that I have and I have done well with the resources that I got,” she stated.

TIGHT RACES

Although eight years and 15 updated voters’ lists later, the last local government elections data also show the parishes of St Thomas and Hanover as ones to watch as the highest winning percentages in that western parish was 59.5 per cent for the Sandy Bay division and 56.9 in Hopewell. The PNP won four of the seven divisions.

In St Thomas, both parties won the same number of divisions – five – but the JLP won the popular vote. Trinityville’s Councillor Lenworth Rawle was first named mayor of Morant Bay, but stepped down in 2018 ahead of a no-confidence vote against him and his deputy, Michael Hue (Port Morant). Hue succeeded him.

Rawle died in October 2022, triggering Hue’s resignation as mayor as the balance of power shifted in the PNP’s favour. The PNP’s Hubert Williams (White Horses division) now holds the reins.

Westmoreland, a former PNP stronghold, has seen shifting political winds in recent times as two councillors have defected to the JLP. However, the PNP’s Bertel Moore remains mayor. Just last week, PNP Councillor Lawton McKenzie indicated that he will be running as an independent candidate in the upcoming polls.

Manchester Central MP Rhoda Crawford has promised to deliver that municipal corporation to the JLP, as it is one of three controlled by the PNP. The JLP has three of the four constituencies in the parish, with only MP Mikael Phillips surviving the 2020 general election swing.

Portland and St Ann have also been identified as parishes for interesting battles.

The JLP won 130 of the 228 divisions in 2016, and the PNP 98.

The PNP also won the only mayoral election, which was held in Portmore.

erica.virtue@gleanerjm.com