Local gov’t polls a referendum on Holness admin, says Anderson

If the People’s National Party (PNP) secures the majority of municipalities in the upcoming February 26 local government polls, this could be construed as a national referendum on the performance of the ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) administration, according to pollster Don Anderson.

However, as candidates line up to be nominated in the 228 electoral divisions across the island's 63 constituencies today, Anderson has indicated that a poor showing by the PNP could send the clearest signal that dramatic changes are needed within the organisation that suffered a crushing defeat in the 2020 general election.

He said the PNP did so badly in the 2020 general election that any improvement in the upcoming polls would provide some comfort to the party.

“But, if they lose badly again, it will certainly be an indication that things need to change,” he said.

Some political watchers see the February 26 polls as a high-stakes race that will give the political party that wins the majority of municipalities strong momentum heading into the general election, which is constitutionally due in 2025.

“It is coming before the general election, and obviously, the Government, I believe, wants to put a considerable amount of emphasis on the campaign leading in so that they can win this because, if they don’t, it will definitely be an indication of the level of support nationally,” the pollster said yesterday during a Gleaner Editors’ Forum at the newspaper’s North Street offices in Kingston.

Anderson said there was the feeling nationally that one of the reasons the governing party did not call local government elections earlier was the level of uncertainty about its prospects of defeating the PNP at the polls.

The pollster said this was not his personal opinion but what he was picking up from empirical data that suggest that the Government delayed the calling of the local polls because it was not sure about the level of support from voters.

“People have said to me, and I can’t corroborate it because it is not my data, that they have data which suggest that they (the Government) are in difficult waters. I can’t verify it. It is not my data,” the pollster added.

A sweep of the municipalities by the ruling party would spur the Government to call the general election within a short period, Anderson suggested.

However, if the governing party loses the local government polls, Anderson argued that the administration would be going full term.

Urban planning consultant Professor Carol Archer, who also participated in the forum, said the upcoming elections will be a signal to the Government of either the disaffection or strong support its leadership has garnered from the electorate.

edmond.campbell@gleanerjm.com