JLP not yet dead, says Shalman Scott

The governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has found itself in a spot of bother, one political commentator believes while another has suggested that the party may have time to correct its path ahead of the parliamentary election due by September 2025.

Former Mayor of Montego Bay Shalman Scott acknowledged that while there have been fluctuations in the lead held by the PNP over the JLP in recent months, the trend leans towards the Opposition.

His observation follows the latest People’s National Party (PNP)-commissioned Don Anderson opinion poll on voter intent, which revealed that the opposition party holds a 7.8 percentage point lead over the JLP.

The results show that 36.8 per cent of Jamaicans want the PNP in office, compared to 29 per cent, who want the JLP to steer the country. It has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.

Scott said time will tell whether this will hold over the next year and a half, noting that a lot can happen between now and when the election is called to cause a change in course.

“We will see between now and the time when the election shall have been called what happens to the trend. We will see if that is maintained and sustained or changed based on other domestic and international factors,” said Scott, a former mayor of Montego Bay who was elected councillor on a JLP ticket.

But veteran journalist Lloyd B. Smith, who entered the Lower House in 2011 for a single term on a PNP ticket, believes that the ruling party is in trouble.

“I definitely think it spells a lot of trouble for the JLP on the basis that based on its own perceived track record, it would have thought that it had enough trophies to [put it in pole position] ... going into the next election,” Smith said in analysing the findings.

However, he said it is clear that there has been an increasing disconnect between the JLP and the electorate.

Coupled with that, Smith told The Gleaner, comes a great deal of arrogance, apathy and disrespect. He said Jamaicans are now reacting accordingly.

Further, he said that from anecdotal and empirical evidence, people are under pressure from the high cost of living, feeling the strain whether at the supermarket or corner shop.

“The cost of food items goes up every week and I think this is one of the main pain points for the JLP. I suspect that it has to do with inflation as well as the fact that we still import most of our foodstuff,” Smith said.

He added that the Government has not been able to establish a policy to balance importation against inflation and is paying the price.

Notwithstanding the many roads that are being built and paved, and the distribution of houses under the Government’s New Social Housing Programme, Smith said the old Jamaican adage rings true – empty barrels cannot stand.

He said this has been the millstone around the ruling party’s neck.

“Yes, it has done a lot of good things, but in the final analysis, it is the bread-and-butter issues that need to be more sufficiently addressed,” Smith said.

He also said the issue between House Speaker Juliet Holness and former Clerk to the Houses of Parliament Valrie Curtis and the Government’s failures in the court on matters of the Constitution suggest that members are not aware of their role to serve and not rule Jamaicans.

He said the Government having a large majority of 49 members of parliament (MPs) to the Opposition’s 14 has caused it to become complacent, arrogant, and feeling that it has another victory in the bag.

Smith said many government MPs are now depending on the perceived popularity of Prime Minister Andrew Holness to secure a next term.

“It’s not going to happen this time around. I don’t think this election is going to be as leader-focused as the other two (2016 and 2020) were, which explains the fact that even though Holness is ahead of [Mark] Golding in the favourability ratings, the PNP is ahead of the JLP,” he said.

kimone.francis@gleanerjm.com