JLP’s dominance vs PNP’s resurgence

The political spotlight is firmly on Manchester, the central Jamaica parish where the ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and the opposition People's National Party (PNP) are bracing for an intense showdown.

The PNP aims to win all four parliamentary seats, including Manchester North Eastern, which it last held in 1989. Meanwhile, the JLP seeks to maintain its current hold on three of the four seats.

As the nation approaches a general election – constitutionally due by September 2025 – both major parties have entrusted their seasoned political strategists with the crucial task of securing votes in Manchester and the neighbouring Clarendon and St Elizabeth.

The JLP's hopes for consecutive victories rest on the shoulders of Michael Stern, the deputy leader of Area Council Three and a businessman, whose national foray into politics began under the Bruce Golding-led National Democratic Movement in the 1990s. Stern's path crosses with that of the PNP's Hopeton McCatty, an experienced political player and former bauxite worker known for his grassroots campaigning.

In an interview with The Sunday Gleaner, Stern acknowledged the ruling party's vulnerabilities in Manchester.

“We are hoping to retain all that we have now, but it is going to be difficult to go beyond that, but there are two in danger right now, and, of course, we are more vulnerable in Manchester. We are a little dominant in Clarendon, but we don't say that with any boast, but we know that we have work to do ... . Once you are in power for this length of time, the people will seriously question whether to give that party a third term,” he said, noting that the Holness administration is wrapping up its second term.

The JLP identifies its most vulnerable constituencies as Manchester Central and Southern.

In Manchester Southern, Robert Chin – a first-time MP who ousted PNP's Michael Stewart in 2020 – has faced significant backlash for his perceived ineffectiveness. The PNP has positioned Peter Bunting, a close ally of PNP president Mark Golding, as the new candidate in that area.

Rhoda Crawford, the incumbent first-timer in Central who defeated Bunting in 2020, is facing challenges after a reported fallout with a key ally and the resignation of a long-time councillor caretaker. These issues have reportedly destabilised the constituency, which had been a stronghold for the PNP for decades. The February local government elections saw all four councillors elected coming from the PNP as the JLP lost the Knockpatrick division which it held for just over a decade.

“We have our own little strategies which I will not tell you, but expect some by-elections in between [now and the general election] because we have the minister of finance who is going and we have the death of the councillor in Aenon Town division in Clarendon, and that by-election can also determine who becomes the head of the Clarendon Municipal Corporation, so it's a very important election for us, and then there is the St Thomas one, which won't make any changes, but we have to get it out of the way,” Stern told The Sunday Gleaner.

He stressed the urgency of addressing community concerns, particularly regarding delayed infrastructure projects, adding that he is looking forward to the rollout of the Government's stalled $40-billion SPARK road rehabilitation programme before the next general election.

“I think we are in a different space now than before, when you would have a general coming out of a conference. I am not looking forward to that. I am looking forward to the unveiling of the SPARK Programme that the bureaucracy in the system have held up, and a lot of members of parliament don't feel well, because of the procurement process,” Stern explained.

“They (MPs) want to see these programmes initiated by the Government operational. They have dialogue with the electorate at the community level. They know the roads to be repaired and they are asking every day why the works haven't started yet, although the funds have been allocated. But they are tied up in the bidding process,” he said.

He is hopeful that the programme will start in November.

Stern cited getting potable water to communities as one way of giving satisfaction to the electorate.

“We have a lot of water programmes, and you know, that's [Matthew] Samuda's programme and he will be coming back into water after the swearing-in,” he said, referring to the former senator now St Ann North Eastern member of parliament-elect.

“You have to give him at least a six month, mek him gwaan wid him water ting. So I don't see anything developing before April 2025. So if we allow those six months, the heavy campaigning will come after April,” according to the JLP deputy leader.

“So, we are in an unusual situation this time around, because we have a more educated electorate. Politics is far more transactional. When you run a by-election without any serious competition, people did not vote because they didn't get something,” Stern told The Sunday Gleaner, noting that this was based on information from the ground.

“One of the things we have to commit to the Jamaican people, going forward, is that we have to tear down the bureaucratic walls that are holding down Jamaica ... . Jamaica needs to go faster. It's just too hard to get a project out,” Stern argued.

“So we will be seeking to connect with our people through those programmes,” he said.

On the opposing side, McCatty is in the trenches in Manchester, where Mikael Phillips is the sole PNP MP and the party has boosted its presence in the Manchester Municipal Corporation since February.

“We are going after all four in Manchester. We have targeted St Elizabeth, too. In the past, we have won six and seven in the region, and it may sound idealistic, but going for eight is not far-fetched either,” McCatty told The Sunday Gleaner, adding that the party is riding on a high following the municipal polls.

He mentioned the battleground constituencies of St Elizabeth South Eastern, where the JLP's Franklin Witter is the current MP, and South Western, where Agriculture Minister Floyd Green is the incumbent. The two constituencies have changed hands between both parties in the last five general elections.

McCatty explained why the PNP is also targeting Manchester North Eastern.

“The people have told us they want a change – a significant change. For the first time since 1986, we won the Walderston and Christiana divisions [together] in Manchester. The last time Manchester North Eastern was won by the PNP was 1989, when Calvin Lyn won the seat,” he said.

The current MP, the JLP's Audley Shaw who has ruled the roost since 1993, is expected to retire from representational politics at the end of this term.

McCatty said that based on data from the local government elections, the PNP had a deficit of 63 votes in the overall constituency.

McCatty also outlined the PNP's strategy for St Elizabeth, with candidates ready to challenge incumbents as the PNP currently holds no seat in the parish.

“The signs are trending towards the PNP and we going after it. We also believe that [J.C.] Hutchinson in St Elizabeth North Western can go because we do not believe he can go back and promise the people anything more or anything new,” he remarked.

Despite several attempts, The Sunday Gleaner was unable to reach Hutchinson, the JLP deputy leader with responsibility for St Elizabeth, for comment.

McCatty said the PNP's candidate, Patricia Scarlett Forrester, is someone from the area in whom the party has much confidence. The last time the PNP won the constituency was 1993 with Mel Brown.

Meanwhile, McCatty said Spanish Town Mayor Norman Scott will be seeking to unseat Witter in St Elizabeth South Eastern. Zuleika Jess will be seeking to unseat the JLP's Delroy Slowley in St Elizabeth North Eastern; and Miranda Wellington, who grew up under the tutelage of Donald Buchanan, will go up against Green in St Elizabeth South Western.

“Jess cannot be considered an outsider as she is actually living in the constituency now,” he stated.

Lothian Cousins is the only sitting PNP MP in Clarendon.

erica.virtue@gleanerjm.com