Empty classrooms
• Primary schools see a 9.5% enrolment drop in five years as 70,000 seats go unfilled • Declining birth rate, migration force ministry to balance equity, cost efficiency
Published:Sunday | November 17, 2024 | 12:10 AMJovan Johnson - Senior Staff Reporter
More than 200 of Jamaica’s primary schools are teaching fewer than half the number of students which they have the capacity to accommodate. This is roughly 40 per cent of 604 schools at that level operating below capacity.
The education ministry has attributed declining enrolment figures to migration and falling birth rates, although it insists that ensuring access to education is an overriding factor in keeping some institutions open.
The closures of Salter’s Hill Primary in St James and Clifton Primary in St Andrew earlier this year – Jamaica’s first school closures since 2017 – underscore the growing issue. These closures bring the total number of schools shuttered since 2014 to 29, with 25 of those closed between 2014 and 2015 as part of an aggressive rationalisation policy under the Portia Simpson Miller administration.
Clifton Primary, which had space for 160 students, did not register any students in the 2023-2024 academic year, while Salter’s Hill had 13 – just eight per cent of its 145-student capacity, according to the education ministry’s figures for the school year that ended in July.
The 14 teachers affected by the closures were redeployed to nearby schools, the ministry said.
Over the five years from 2019 to 2023, Salter’s Hill’s average enrolment was 24 students – 13 each in 2023 and 2022; 40 each in the COVID-19 rampant years of 2020 and 2021; and 32 in 2019.
Both schools were located in “remote rural” communities that have been hollowed out by migration as families moved to more urban areas to better access to economic opportunities.
Primary school education, for children between the ages six and 12, is compulsory in Jamaica and the data shows that with 384,689 enrolled last year, 85 per cent of the 453,590 spaces available in public schools islandwide were occupied.
But the overall 15 per cent vacancy masks the challenge facing dozens of schools, the data highlights an ongoing challenge in ensuring equitable access to education, especially in rural areas.
WORST-AFFECTED SCHOOLS
The 2023-2024 figures reveal that nearly 40 per cent of Jamaica’s primary schools – 240 out of 604 – are operating at 50 per cent or less of their capacity. Among these, 34 schools are operating at 20 per cent or less of their potential. These schools together offered 72,205 spaces in 2023, but only 25,113 of those seats were filled. Many of the worst-affected schools are located in rural and remote areas across 13 parishes, where access and transportation costs remain significant barriers for students.
A crude analysis using ministry data for the last school year reveals that the 34 schools seeing the lowest percentage occupancy – with 1,368 students and an average population of around 40 – collectively received some $960 million in funding.
This resulted in an average per-student cost of about $754,701 – more than twice the national average of $320,844.
Among the schools with the lowest enrolment, as a percentage of their capacity, were Clifton; Mount Hermon Primary in Portland with 19 students registered for its 325 spaces; White Marl Primary and Infant in St Catherine, with 46 out of 555; Somerset Primary and Infant in St Andrew with 22 out of 245; Claverty Cottage Primary in Portland with nine out of 70; Clydesdale Primary in St Ann with 18 out of 110; and Elletson Primary and Infant in Kingston with 93 out of 650.
Claverty Cottage Primary, which had the least number of students nationally, averaged 14 students over the 2019-2023 period – nine in 2023-24; eight in 2022-23; 11 in 2021-22; 20 in 2020-21, and 22 in 2019-20. Government support for the school stood at $14 million last academic year.
Other schools have experienced dramatic declines in enrolment since 2019. For example, Crofts Hill Primary in Clarendon saw its enrolment halved – from 489 students in 2019-20 to just 244 in 2023-24. Lalor Primary in St Elizabeth experienced a 60 per cent decline, registering only 16 students in 2023, compared to 40 in 2019.
The broader national trend shows a 9.5 per cent decline in enrolment at primary and infant schools between September 2019 and July 2024. Without infant schools, the decline is even steeper – 11.5 per cent. From 209,137 enrolled students in 2019, the number dropped to 189,371 by 2023. Despite the overall decline, some 69 schools saw increases in enrolment, with a few even experiencing overcrowding.
9.5% DROP IN ENROLMENT
The broader national trend shows a 9.5 per cent decline in enrolment at primary and infant schools between 2019 and 2023. Without infant schools, the fall was 11.5 per cent. From 209,137 enrolled students in 2019-20, the number dropped to 189,371 by 2023-24. Despite the overall decline, some 69 schools saw increases in enrolment, with a few even experiencing overcrowding.
The Ministry of Education reports a 99 per cent completion rate for enrolled primary school students. However, it acknowledges that less than one per cent of girls and two per cent of boys are not attending school, according to a 2022 survey.
The ministry said that the declining student population in primary schools is “shaped by several interconnected factors”, including migration, lower birth rates, and shifts in demographic patterns. Some schools have also cited crime as a contributing factor to the exodus from certain areas.
“STATIN (Statistical Institute of Jamaica) has indicated that Jamaica has an ageing population. The decline in births has led to a smaller proportion of school-age children as the overall demographic shifts. With fewer young families, fewer children are entering primary schools,” the ministry told The Sunday Gleaner.
It also pointed to cultural shifts as “more individuals may prioritise career and personal development over starting larger families”.
It added that: “The family also experiences economic challenges, such as unemployment and the high cost of living, contributing to a decline in birth rates. Families may choose to have fewer children due to financial constraints.”
Jamaica’s fertility rate has seen a significant decline from 4.5 births per female between 1973 and 1975 to 1.9 in 2021, the 2021 Reproductive Health Survey Jamaica released by the National Family Planning Board earlier this year shows.
The figure, while aligned with a global downward trend, falls below the replacement rate of 2.1 needed to sustain population levels.
The health ministry also recently reported that in 2021, there were 31,276 live births, compared to 40,508 in 2010 and 56,134 in 2000. Migration and an annual population growth rate of less than one per cent have raised labour and productivity concerns.
The answer to how long the ministry can sustain operations at severely underpopulated schools is not straightforward, the ministry suggested in its response to why it keeps those institutions open.
It acknowledged that declining numbers can affect government funding given enrolment numbers are used to provide operational grants, hire teachers, and provide books and online resources.
But it said when it comes to the issue of sustainability, the ministry is primarily concerned with “equity and inclusivity, access and community”.
“The ministry’s mantra, ‘Every Child Can Learn, Every Child Must Learn’ can only be fulfilled if we provide access to every child. Access and equity are pillars of investment in our human capital. In Jamaica, there are some rural districts where the population is not significantly high and the GOJ (Government of Jamaica) has a responsibility to ensure that school-age children are able to access public education institutions,” it said.
The policy on closure, it said, mandates an assessment to determine the need for closure and consultations with stakeholders, including parents and the local community and an evaluation of alternative solutions to ensure access and equity.
“Where schools remain in operation, it is as a result of the need for the institution in the particular community which is considered an investment and our fulfilment of the children’s inalienable right to an education,” the ministry said.
It pointed to several policies aimed at improving access and quality in schools with declining populations, including the school feeding programme, the rural bus transportation programme, incentive programmes such as the Programme of Advancement Through Health and Education, implementing specific programmes for vulnerable groups such as school-age mothers, and reforming the curriculum.
Other strategies being implemented to optimise public resources include to incorporate infant departments at the primary school and upgrade underutilised spaces to create labs for STEM and technical and vocational areas.
Dr Julian Devonish, a demography expert, argued that policymakers must address the root causes of migration from rural areas to urban centres.
“So, if you don’t put things in place to curb emigration, then you’re going to have this problem with low fertility,” said the senior lecturer at The University of the West Indies, Mona.
He suggested that while school closures can help in resource reallocation, they should be handled carefully, with support such as transportation to ensure continued student access to primary education, a constitutional right to Jamaicans.
Devonish also noted that smaller school populations could have some advantages, such as lower teacher-student ratios and more individual attention.
Noting that the trend is Caribbean-wide, Devonish agreed with the ministry’s social approach to closures even with consideration of the costs of operating small schools. He said Jamaica’s geographic size makes it harder to close institutions, compared with smaller countries such as Barbados.
“It’s not just fixing something today or this year and then it remains stable. You have to look at next year. What is the size of the cohort of students coming up? What’s the intention of women to have children in the next year, in the next two years, in the next five years? it has to be data-driven,” he told The Sunday Gleaner.
“Whenever the Government takes the decision to close schools, then we have to think about: Where would the individuals from that school be absorbed? What is the next closest school to that area? And how do we get students to that school without having a family incur greater costs or the child incur greater stress or strain to actually reach the school?” he added.
Jamaica Teachers’ Association President Dr Mark Smith said the organisation is “concerned” at the local trend, which he acknowledged to be a “complicated” matter with “no quick fix”.
“As a union, we have to ensure that nobody is forced to move. It is a dynamic that ensures that teachers’ rights are preserved, but understanding that, you know, there is a reality that if you don’t have enough students at school, you may need to close those schools,” he said, noting that the association is working on a position paper that is expected to be released at its conference next summer.
Pointing to the 1970s ‘Two is Better than Too Many’ birth control national campaign, Smith said a strategic approach may now be required to urge Jamaicans who can afford it to have more children.
“I am not advocating that people go and have children that they can’t take care of or cannot provide any emotional support or financial support for. But, definitely what is important is that as a society, we recognise that for our own viability, we have to ensure that we have the [appropriate] birth rate,” the school administrator said.
Schools with lowest rate of enrolment for 2023-2024 academic year
School Parish Capacity Enrolment Enrolment percentage
1. Clifton Primary St Andrew 160 0 0
2 Mount Hermon Primary Portland 325 19 5.8
3. Trinityville Primary St Thomas 475 31 6.5
4. White Marl Primary and Infant St Catherine 555 46 8.3
5. Mount Vernon Primary and Infant St Thomas 120 10 8.3
6. Salter’s Hill Primary St James 145 13 9.0
7. Somerset Primary and Infant St Andrew 245 22 9.0
8. Cascade Primary and Infant Portland 360 35 9.7
9. Mount Horeb Primary and Infant St James 165 19 11.5
10. Claverty Cottage Primary Portland 70 9 12.9
11. Brainerd Primary St Mary 240 32 13.3
12. Hillside Primary and Infant St Thomas 295 41 13.9
13. Elletson Primary and Infant Kingston 650 93 14.3
14. Winchester Primary St Thomas 100 15 15.0
15. Camberwell Primary St Mary 145 22 15.2
16. Clydesdale Primary St Ann 110 18 16.4
17. Tavares Gardens Primary and Infant St Andrew 415 69 16.6
18. Avocat Primary Portland 320 55 17.2
19. Giddy Hall Primary St Elizabeth 210 37 17.6
20. Johns Town Primary St Thomas 220 39 17.7
21. Lalor Primary St Elizabeth 90 16 17.8
22. Victoria Primary and Infant St Catherine 330 59 17.9
23. Bath Primary St Thomas 690 124 18.0
24. Beecham Hill Primary and Infant St Mary 305 55 18.0
25. Dallas Primary and Infant St Andrew 375 68 18.1
26. Watt Town Primary and Infant St Ann 270 49 18.1
27. Jackson Primary and Infant St Mary 360 66 18.3
28. Content Gap Primary St Andrew 200 37 18.5
29. Sunderland Primary St James 105 20 19.0
30. White Hall Primary St Thomas 155 31 20.0
31. Penlyne Castle Primary St Thomas 210 42 20.0
32. Bloomfield Primary Portland 135 27 20.0
33. Mount Grace Primary & Junior High Westmoreland 645 129 20.0
34. Main Ridge Primary Clarendon 100 20 20.0
Source: Ministry of Education