Letter of the Day | GDP growth isn't easy peasy Japanesey
Published:Sunday | May 6, 2018 | 12:00 AM
THE EDITOR, Sir:
Delroy Warmington's article published in The Sunday Gleaner of May 6, 2018, titled 'Growth: No more excuses, Mr Holness', makes interesting reading, but the good points he makes are overshadowed by his failure to properly explain the reasons for the lack of acceptable GDP growth. His comments about Dr Nigel Clarke are unbecoming of a global fund manager.
The official measurement of GDP is done by STATIN, and its reports state the industries that are measured. Its quarterly reports clearly state that one of the significant contributors to Jamaica's anaemic GDP growth in 2017 has been the weather. This significantly affects agriculture and other industries.
Below is a sample of their comments.
Q4 2016 GDP +1.0%
"The positive performance of the goods-producing industries was due to increased output in agriculture, forestry and fishing (+17.1%) ... positively impacted by favourable weather conditions which resulted in higher crop yields."
Q1 2017 GDP +0.1%
A 3.6% reduction in agriculture, forestry and fishing: The performance of the agriculture, forestry and fishing industry was negatively affected by drought conditions in the south-central parishes and heavy rainfall in the northeastern parishes.
Q2 2017 GDP -0.1%
The agriculture, forestry and fishing industry fell by 9.5%, resulting from unfavourable weather conditions and the devastation of crops from the beet armyworm infestation.
Q3 2017 GDP +0.8%
Agriculture, forestry and fishing declined by 0.8%, largely attributed to unfavourable weather conditions
Q4 2017 GSP +1.1%
Agriculture, forestry and fishing declined by 1.1%. The performance of the agriculture, forestry and fishing industry was impacted by heavy rainfall.
I believe that this and other administrations have tried to achieve growth, but the fact is that achieving good growth is not as simple as Mr Warmington makes it out to be. To state that "growing the economy is not performing brain surgery in the dark. It is elementary" is an affront to our hard-working government ministers, past and present.
Studies have shown that if Jamaica had a murder rate similar to Costa Rica's, we would have a growth rate of more than 5%. A 5% growth target is indeed a stretch and not based on our historically low record as is suggested.
I urge Mr Warmington to use the privilege that he has as a writer to comprehensively and accurately inform the readers.
B. LARRY WATSON
President, Jamaica
Chamber of Commerce