Amina Taylor | Get the popcorn ready for the ultimate election show

They say ‘politics is show business for ugly people’, and if you’re a political junkie like myself, you can see how it makes a warped kind of sense. As a former entertainment, correspondent and magazine editor, I spent over a decade involved in the thrust and pull of the latest celebrity machinations; the movers and shakers, those desperately clinging onto the greasy pole of fame, and those who were being catapulted into superstardom or earmarked for big things.

If you look at the current status of British politics, it is the equivalent of a massive drama with life-altering plot twists and cast reshuffles. Across the wider British landscape, instead of awards, it’s policies in the spotlight, and who doesn’t love a good snap election over a surprise album drop (think Cowboy Carter, but instead of Beyoncé doing country, the Tory remix sees PM Sunak dropping early elections on the country)?

If, like so many of us, you’ve grown disillusioned with politics (and politicians) in general, wanting to cast the whole sorry lot in one dirty barrel that you’re quite happy to roll out to sea, you’re not alone. However, if there were ever a time when you could see things play out in a fashion that was both dramatic and meaningful, 2024 UK elections would be a great place to start. The last change of PM we had saw my mortgage skyrocket and cost of living spike, so imagine what’s at stake during this episode.

When PM Rishi Sunak announced snap elections on May 22, even members of his own party were caught on the back foot. Many of us political ‘old heads’ thought an autumn vote was on the cards. It would be buying breathing room for under-fire Sunak, giving the Tories time to show the economy wasn’t in freefall. More time would allow Britain to extricate itself from some of its foreign policy misadventures. With Labour leading by over 20 points in some polls, additional room would allow that gap to shorten - somehow.

WORST SHOWING

Like any good soap opera, the writers at Tory HQ decided a major plot twist is on the cards. July 4 is now the date. Ready your photo ID and get out there. It’s like voting on Britain Got Talent, but minus the Botox… and sometimes the ‘talent.’

Perhaps Sunak would have been wiser to hold fire before pulling the election grenade, because one recent poll by Savanta showed a 25-point gap between Labour and the Tories, with some predicting ‘electoral extinction’ for the Conservatives.

To add some electrical salt into gaping Tory wounds, in some polls Nigel Farage’s Reform Party (aka UKIP, aka Brexit Party, etc) are actually polling ahead of the Tories, making them the potential opposition. With Sunak lacking main character energy, the party he now leads potentially faces returning just 72 MPs out of 650 in the House of Commons–their worst showing for 200 years.

For a mixed bag of reasons, but dare I suggest the anticipation of electoral defeat being chief among them, 75 Tory politicians have indicated that they will not be standing for re-election. These include Tory ‘big beasts’: former Liz Truss acolyte and Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng; ex-PM Theresa May and former puppet-master-in-chief Michael Gove (I might have made up that title), and smoother-than-butter, former MP for Windsor Adam Afriyie are also calling it a day.

Some of these big hitters, stepping down before they are unceremoniously rejected by the electorate, have denied me that Portillo moment– named for former Conservative Minister Michael Portillo, who lost his seat in dramatic fashion to a Labour upstart in the 1997 elections. His defeat added a new term to the political lexicon ‘doing a Portillo’ or to experience a radical ‘change in fortunes’. One day you’re a future PM, the next you’re on TV waxing lyrical about the joys of trains.

TOP OF THE FLOPS

There are a few ‘big beasts’ who I do hope are slain come election night. Pollsters have highlighted 15 high-profile Conservatives, including ministers and secretary of state, but these are just my favourites for the ‘Top of the Flops’.

1. Jacob Rees-Mogg. Repping North East Somerset since 2010 and defending a 14,729 majority. Watching the smug smile be wiped off his face in the early hours of July 5 is enough to have me stay up with my coffee and snacks.

2. Jeremy Hunt’s social media shows he’s aware his seat is in danger and is throwing the kitchen sink at the local MP angle. The former health secretary, chancellor and Tory leadership hopeful could be riding off into the political sunset.

3. James Cleverly is out here fighting for his political life, despite defending a normally untouchable 25,000 majority. Cleverly might find the good people of Braintree in no mood to reward ministerial mediocrity. Never has a politician’s surname and reputation been so at odds.

4. Grant Shapps is having a real ‘squeaky bum’ campaign with a giant target on his back. The parliamentary chameleon once had football legend Gary Lineker deliver a put-down so brutal, I had to reproduce it here: ‘A tad rich coming from someone who can’t even stick to one name. 4 chapsShapps.’ Ouch.

5. It’s hard to choose between Penny Mordaunt and fellow party faithful Iain Duncan Smith because they’re facing different challenges, with both being serious Labour targets in their constituencies. Don’t be surprised if they’ve already lined up media agents ahead of their new television careers.

These elections will be the ultimate show with results that could literally mean life and death for so many. It is not a foregone conclusion that Britain will wake up on July 5 to the news we’ve replaced one Conservative government with another, with very few distinguishing policy differences between them, but it’s looking like a good bet. A Labour government with a thumping majority will have its own issues, and one that I will be happy to dive into in a future article.

In the meantime, take some solace in the fact that despite the predictability of the political script, there are still a few spoilers ahead, including smaller parties making their mark; independents speaking up for issues often ignored by ‘the big two’; and a more switched on electorate who are happy to publicly call out and disrupt the status quo. Please join me on election night in grabbing your popcorn and assorted snacks. If you’re drinking man, get your shots ready and knock one back for every big name who loses his seat, and steady yourself for Britain: The Sequel.

Amina Taylor is a journalist and broadcaster. She is the former editor of Pride magazine and works as producer, presenter and correspondent with Press TV in London.