Sensational Move, Provocativa for Sunday’s Dawes Memorial

GARY Subratie’s SENSATIONAL MOVE should start favourite to win division one of Sunday’s James B. Dawes Memorial after chasing home NEO STAR at nine furlongs and 25 yards on New Year’s Day when making his overnight-allowance debut.

SENSATIONAL MOVE has not been out of the money since winning at odds of 62-1 last November with Rudolph Paige, landing the Money Time Trophy at six and a half furlongs.

In division two, Rohan Crichton debuts United States importee, PROVOCATIVA, facing seven local-breds at five and a half furlongs, having swept December’s US$150,000 Mouttet Mile with Gulfstream Park invader ROUGH ENTRY on the American’s first local outing.

Similar to how ROUGH ENTRY ducked under the clockers’ radar at exercise, Crichton has kept his cards close to his chest with PROVOCATIVA, a January 14 gallop from the gate in 1:01.1, listed as easy, after opening splits of 46.3 for the first half-mile.

A five-year-old dark bay mare, PROVOCATIVA has won three races on the Florida circuit, the last being eight months ago at Tampa Bay, going a mile and 40 yards, beating US$14,000 claimers on dirt in 1:43.3. Prior to that run, PROVOCATIVA had placed third at the same distance.

Returning to Gulfstream Park where she had found the competition stiff after winning a maiden claiming in September 2022, PROVOCATIVA finished in the money in back-to-back races, second and third, last year June.

Though she appears to be a staying type, consistently campaigning at a mile and a longer, a strike rate of 50 per cent in-the-money on overseas soil, since June 2022, suggests PROVOCATIVA, similar to ROUGH ENTRY, should prove better than her local-bred rivals.

Casting back to ROUGH ENTRY, the American appeared suspect at a mile, but sceptical pundits failed to take into consideration the pace he maintained to win at six furlongs at a top-tier United States racetrack.

PROVOCATIVA might not be as quick as ROUGH ENTRY but must have faced torrid pace to maintain speed ratings of mid-60s to 70s in her last 14 starts, a high of 76 when placing second at Gulfstream Park in June.