Are we better off today?

Raymond Pryce, Contributor

Anniversaries, by their very nature, necessitate an assessment of the period they mark. In light of that, no one should be surprised, or as some appear, angry that the populace is reflexively assessing the past three years of the Golding administration.

Characteristically of us as a people, such an automatic activity is viewed with the suspicion that comes with the scrutiny of our politically polarised lenses. Having said all that, and despite the hazard that expressing one's opinion can cause in these times, we must as a duty, assess where we are today in light of where our governors had charted we would be.

At the end of the 18-plus years of the People's National Party's consecutive four terms in office, the following macro-economic indicators were achieved. Inflation stood at 5.8 per cent, the benchmark interest rate was 11.85 per cent; unemployment was 9.8 per cent and poverty was measured at 9.6 per cent. These are key economic indices that all modern economies report and which are used to assess the general health and potential for prosperity of an economy.

In addition to these, economies are assessed by the revenues and assets held in public (government) accounts. Five such accounts in the Jamaican situation are the net international reserves, which stood at J$172.8 billion; the Tourism Enhancement Fund at $5 billion; the Petro Caribe Fund at $18 billion; the National Health Fund at $3 billion and the National Housing Trust (NHT) with more than $89 billion.

In her Budget contribution of Thursday April 15 this year, Opposition Leader Portia Simpson Miller outlined these results and reminded the public and the Government, that when Bruce Golding became prime minister, there was more than $343 billion in the proverbial "kitty". No one from the Government or any other quarter in the society challenged or refuted her presentation of these facts. Thirty six months later, with the paucity of information, no one is really sure of the amount that is now held in total across the various special-focus funds. What we are increasingly privy to however, is a raft of reports from the contractor general and the auditor general that details excesses by various ministers, sometimes without Cabinet approval (or even knowledge of the Cabinet).

PROMISES DELIVERED, PROMISES KEPT

A key strategy for governments across the globe in rating themselves as successful is the listing of manifesto promises that have been delivered upon. The main spokespersons for the Golding administration have followed suit. As a people, we are fed an almost daily diet of how such successes as the Jamaica Debt Exchange (JDX), the tuition-free education policy (which three years later the Government is still at pains to explain) and the abolition of user fees in public hospitals have been delivered. In rattling off these as the achievements that exemplify the Golding administration at work, there is no objective commentary and or explanation from within the executive as to the opportunity costs of these achievements.

So, for instance, this academic year, for the first time in eight academic years, grade 11 students will not receive the usual government support with respect to the payment of the cost of five subjects at the Caribbean Examinations Council/Caribbean Secondary Examination Certificate level. This is another case of a clear policy being replaced by an incoherent set of media releases and pronouncements for which this administration is becoming increasingly known.

Then, there is the issue of the JDX. At the time of its announcement, the disproportionate burden to pay for this exchange was placed on the Jamaican pensioner. Now, it is being discovered that the next aspect of the cost of this exchange is apparently being paid by depositors in commercial banks, who must now contend with the increases in banking fees.

The JDX is also being blamed for the significant fall-off in profits recorded by the commercial banks, despite the 'offset' attempted by the increased banking fees levied on depositors fees. With respect to the abolition of user fees in the public hospitals, well, the jury is still out there. But, evidence so far presented suggests the user fees were not the only things abolished, as the 'care' has also been abolished along with working equipment and available supplies.

Manifestation versus Manifesto

The lesson that most administrations quickly learn is that, unless the numbers and the books are balanced alongside a balance in people's lives, then no one (apart from the zealots who are most proximate to the seat of power) will believe the propaganda. In the end, it is not so much a manifesto that is important, it is the manifestation (or outcome) of what was made manifest.

So there is a doubt deficit that has been growing among young professionals and others who, at the start of 2008, saw NHT interest rates going up significantly, ostensibly to protect the Trust from insolvency, only to see those rates come down again in a back-patting exercise. The cost for that public relations moment to NHT mortgagors is still being calculated, but the increase in the arrears and foreclosures to people including young professionals who are first-time homeowners tell a specific tale.

The contraction in the economy is another well-expressed manifestation. This administration finds itself as the first in our history to preside over 12 consecutive quarters of negative growth. The economic term for such a manifestation is a depression. Another critical manifestation is the performance of the administration with respect to jobs. Some sources, including the Planning Institute of Jamaica speak of 55,000 jobs being lost. Others suggest as many as 80,000 jobs have been lost from the economy. Even at the lowest estimate the manifestation is startling, as the administration would have presided over more than 1,500 jobs being lost every quarter since taking office.

The InternationalEnvironment for Growth

I would never discount that Jamaica is a small economy in a dynamic and globalised world. We are therefore not inert from or unaffected by the throes of the world economy. Yet, there is a local component to responding to the global situation that makes all the difference. That component is a combination of competence, timeliness and appropriateness of policy responses to the changes in the world economy.

On that score, the pronouncements and statements from key members of the executive will remain as learning classics for several decades to come. Who can forget that while financial analysts and economists the world over, and here in Jamaica (Dennis Chung and Ralston Hyman respect due), advised the administration to acknowledge, assess and respond to the receding world economy, none other than the finance minister opined that the recession would have been good for Jamaica?

Recall the several televised 'conversations with the prime minister' and other speaking engagements in which the prime minister concluded that a "return to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was neither necessary nor appropriate", followed by, "we will go to the IMF on our own terms"; followed by recent statements by the finance minister that "the IMF agreement is to be renegotiated"?

So, notwithstanding the vicissitudes of the global situation, the local incapacities and mishaps cannot escape comment. Ultimately, my opinion is but my own. It's the rest of Jamaica, in the solace of their own minds, homes, kitchens, cupboards, bank accounts, pockets and the hapless gaze in the eyes of hungry children or elderly relatives denied of quality health care, who will have to answer the pertinent question: Are you better off today than you were 36 months ago?

Raymond Pryce is chairman of the Patriots, the young professionals caucus aligned to the People's National Party. Feedback may be sent to columns@gleanerjm.com.