Can Jamaican democracy endure?

Robert Buddan, Contributor

Two trends in political studies of the past 40 years are captured by the titles, What Makes Democracies Endure and Why Men Rebel. Scholars have tried to find out how democracies emerge, survive and consolidate themselves. They had thought that there was a wave of democratic consolidation following the rebellion against military regimes from the 1970s and the fall of communism post-1990. They had been optimistic, and many people had come to believe that democracy was the best system there was.

But there was caution, even fear. Many democracies were not genuine democracies upon closer inspection. Scholars described them as farcical democracies, pseudo-democracies, illiberal democracies, fragile democracies, and so on. Many only met minimal conditions, like holding elections. But even then, usually only one party stood a realistic chance of winning. They could go on pretending they were democracies if powerful countries like the United States or those of Europe regarded them as important allies and were willing to look the other way.

Political scholars might now want to enquire why people are rebelling in Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen. They might want to find out why there was so much rebellion in the United States and Europe last year? There was a march on Washington in 2010 and French protests were especially massive. Why did people in Kyrgyzstan overthrow their government in 2010? Why did the United Nations predict growing political instability around the world in 2009 and after?

Why Men Rebel

When Ted Gurr published his book, Why Men Rebel, in 1970, he might as well have been asking what caused the phenomenon we now know as 'people power'. The phrase 'people-power movement' became popular during the rise against the Ferdinand Marcos regime in the Philippines and against the 'Baby Doc' Duvalier regime in Haiti in 1986. As recently as November and December 2010, Haitians rebelled against an election result they felt was fraudulent. They forced a review of the results and their suspicions were proven correct. That is people power.

People are rebelling because regimes are corrupt; leaders have been in power for too long; global prices are rising and wages are not keeping up; more governments are imposing austerity measures and people are losing hard-won benefits. Some democracies will endure and others will not. Even some pseudo-democracies and plain authoritarian regimes will survive, but others will not.

Those who study what makes democracies endure and those who study why men rebel might find that their questions are as relevant as ever. Can democracies like Jamaica's endure? The system need not collapse outright or fall into the hands of authoritarian military, gang or some other force. But it can reverse across the line between democracy and pseudo-democracy, doing so imperceptibly behind a veil of propaganda about the circumstances of the economic crisis, fighting some 'enemy' or under a personality cult. When it happens, we might not even know. In fact, it might have already happened. I certainly believe it has. Trevor Munroe wrote in 1999 that Jamaican democracy was in need of renewal or it would decline and decay. Whatever the state of renewal it was undergoing at the time, it has since rapidly degenerated.

It was alarming to me that despite having all the qualities that American scholars say make democracies endure, American democracy decayed during the George W. Bush years under the veil of the propaganda war against terrorism. The wholesale reversal of many cherished human rights and the wild-eyed attack on anyone who looked un-American was shocking. The reversal happened in a few months. American democracy has regressed under electoral skullduggery, civil-rights reversals and human-rights violations. Those who studied what makes democracy endure could not have predicted that their thesis was being undermined right in front of them.

Jamaican Democracy

So it has in Jamaica. Whatever the promise that Golding's JLP represented renewal, that promise quickly faded after the revelations of the Coke-Golding-Manatt affair. Incredibly wild election promises, brazenly bought elections, shocking defence of a gang leader from extradition, shameless lying to Parliament, and questionable award of contracts all add up to democracy's decay in Jamaica. It will need more profound renewal from here on.

These are interesting times for those who study why men rebel and why they don't. Ted Gurr added a different perspective. He did not say that people rebelled for all the reasons we are hearing now. In fact, he did not characterise the problem as having much to do with the regime. It had more to do with the people and their psychological state. But Jamaicans haven't rebelled, even when the conditions for frustration and anger exist. They haven't rebelled when they are deprived relative to what they expected to get and where they wanted to be.

Gurr might be saying that in a case like Jamaica, people might not have expected much from or of the JLP Government. So, relative to their expectations, they do not feel deprived. But I think Gurr also leaves us with a lot to ponder about - why don't people rebel when you would expect them to? Why didn't Americans rebel when their rights were being taken away? Why aren't Africans rebelling? Why are Arabs rebelling now after all these years? Here we are on new ground.

Scholars have ignored the question: why have people not rebelled even when they are frustrated and angry? There is much frustration and anger with democracy in many places because it has fallen short of its promise. I suspect that many things have changed about how people view and behave in politics. One line of thinking in the United States is that people there have become distracted by all the things they can do alone, like watching television, playing video games, and going out for entertainment, that they do less serious political things and do them less as a collective. Another view is that all the previously radical change agents, like political parties, trade unions and civil-society movements, have become too much part of the establishment and cannot destabilise it without upsetting their own interests.

Is it also the case that people now have many opportunities for escapism? The hope and the fantasy of migration, the get-rich quick mentality, Ponzi schemes, getting famous through the opportunities for music, sports and fashion, getting careers and 'making it' all might be part of the new escapism promised in the ideology of globalisation and neoliberalism. Is it that the new mentality is for people to find their own rather than a collective way out? Politics itself might also be a mere form of entertaining escape for them, not really an arena for collective action.

The PNP Youth Organisation has supported the actions of young people protesting in Egypt. It has subsequently called for the resignation of Jamaica's attorney general and minister of justice on allegations of not telling Parliament the truth in the Manatt affair, according to the commission of enquiry. The YO's press release said, "The PNPYO has pledged to spare no effort in a national campaign to have heads roll over this issue in the interest of Jamaicans." We'll see if men will rebel and democracy will endure.

Robert Buddan lectures in the Department of Government, Mona, UWI. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and Robert.Buddan@uwimona.edu.jm.