Bruce's rapture, KD's Knightmare

Ian Boyne, Contributor

There is strong consensus among many that the Manatt-Coke commission report has merely sought to pull a 'George' on us and that it is a report for the birds, as it were. Meanwhile, the prime minister has reportedly been raptured, safe in the knowledge that he has escaped the heat, leaving it to K.D. Knight, who has vowed to take to the streets of a sweltering Kingston to protest the judgement that has been handed down on him.

Never in the history of Jamaica has a commission of enquiry report been so stridently, vehemently and vociferously condemned. Critics are running out of adjectives to damn the Emil George report. The three commissioners might now be competing with doomsday preacher Michael Lewis in the unpopularity contest, but at least they have been amply rewarded for it.

But let's cut to the chase and come to the raw politics of it all: Bruce Golding has gambled big time and won - again. The People's National Party (PNP) could bawl blood, but the fact that the PM could go on his vacation a day after tabling the Manatt report itself tells a story. "Dem nuh worry we," the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) leader seems to be saying to his political opponents on this one.

Golding bowed to enormous public pressure, after resisting for some time, and finally established a commission of enquiry into the Dudus extradition issue, taking daredevil risks with his political future and that of his Government. There were some in his party who strongly disagreed with his move, knowing that it could backfire and bring down the Government.

High stakes

The stakes were, indeed, high. The PNP knew the stakes were that high and that is why, even with its protest over Golding's selection of at least two of the commissioners, they still participated fully in the hearings. They lobbied, along with civil-society groups, for Golding to establish the commission, and they sought to extract every ounce of political juice from it. They got much from the televised hearings themselves, what with the drama and first-class theatrical skills on display. The Golding Government was, indeed, damaged by those hearings and the PNP should have some good footage for its next election campaign.

Indeed, when tensions mounted between the PNP attorneys and commission Chairman Emil George, Knight, Patrick Atkinson and A.J. Nicholson (sotto voce) said on more than one occasion that the people were listening and drawing their own conclusions and did not need to wait on any report to be written. But don't be naïve about these matters. Despite all the favourable publicity the PNP got from the commission and the enviable sound bites, nothing beats a commission's formal findings, conclusions and recommendations.

The PNP knew that very well. That is why K.D. and others were openly threatening the commissioners before their report was written, warning what would be the consequences if they did not write what they wanted. It's one thing for Jamaicans to draw their own conclusions from seeing government ministers on the witness stand. It's one thing for the press and the commentariat to pour scorn and ridicule on the "I can't recall" statements of witnesses and for Jamaicans to talk on their verandahs, offices and street corners about how politicians lie, but it's quite another thing if the official commission report validates all of that.

mild judgment

If the report had made a harsh judgment about the credibility of the testimony given by Government ministers and had recommended resignations and charged people with misconduct, the prime minister would be on no vacation today, reading this article online before daylight Sunday morning. The Gleaner editorial would not have been so mild in its comments on the issue on Thursday, and the Observer could not afford to ignore the issue editorially up to Thursday, commenting instead on stale news about Gladstone Turner's raid on a Vaz. You would have already heard officially from the Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica, the Jamaica Council of Churches, Jamaicans for Justice, and the civil-society coalition group. They would not be as silent as they are today.

Golding could proceed on his vacation, for he knew that the dynamite which could have come from the commission report turned into a dynamite of disillusionment for the PNP, which would have loved a report which floods newsrooms with press releases. There was none. Journalists had to be searching out spokespersons of organisations for comments. Golding had won a major political victory - and the PNP knows it.

delicate proposition

But I give the PNP high marks for strategy. Even when many journalists were pressing party spokespersons for definitive statements about street protests which were threatened, they wisely dodged the issue, saying they were consulting among themselves and among stakeholders. Those stakeholders would have included powerful business interests - which the PNP cannot afford to anger - and civil-society groups, which only come out in unison when there is a perceived crisis. This George report has not occasioned any national crisis; certainly not a crisis which would send Golding to "pack your bags and go" anywhere, except to enjoy his vacation.

A commission of enquiry report which charged Golding with misconduct, recommended his dismissal and/or that of his justice minister would attract the attention of the international press, damage Jamaica's reputation, and perhaps lead the United States to add pressure on Jamaica. It would certainly cause disquiet in our capitalist class. Golding could not survive that perfect storm. No one can estimate the value of a report like this, which finds Golding not guilty of any misconduct, just a little "inappropriate" action. No wonder the JLP was ready to signal its acceptance of this report. As a man on death row would "accept" his reprieve!

The PNP will still try to whip up moral outrage, ride the trust issue, manipulate moral language and push for angst, but for many ordinary Jamaicans struggling to eke out an existence and who had long suspected that "nutten nah come outta it" (As Ernie Smith sings), they have had enough of Manatt, Manatt Manatt. The PNP is carefully testing the temperature. They are not going to make a fool of themselves by calling for protests that will backfire and show lack of public support. They will only mount winnable protests.

For the Government's part, it knows that the struggle over the seven and a half per cent for public-sector workers is far more important and explosive to them politically than any issue about Dudus or Manatt at this time in 2011. The Government is working desperately and feverish to solve this one. If it does that, most of the ministers can safely go on their summer vacations - leaving the PNP to sweat while they search for another issue. (The fact that even the information minister could proceed on his vacation shows the JLP's confidence that Manatt is effectively over.)

Lacking in rigour

But what of the report itself? When even Mark Wignall, who prefers bars to books, complains that the report is only 58 pages long, you know the report is seriously flawed and lacking in rigour! In my view, there were important pieces of evidence adduced before the commission which the commissioners failed to comment on or interact with. Length does not equal depth (as my critics often point out!), but for all that was brought before the commission, 58 pages is woefully inadequate. That did not represent value for money.

Knight, apart from his theatrics and rudeness, marshalled some brilliant, intellectually rigorous and compelling arguments which the commission report does not engage at all. And I agree with critics that the commissioners should have been more forthright and courageous in pronouncing on the credibility of witnesses. They even had a section for that, but they wasted it.

Importantly, though, the commission found that the justice minister may have signed the authority to proceed immediately if she was satisfied there was evidence to support the allegations against Coke. Was there not evidence? Says the report: "There are arguments that she had a choice to examine the evidence to see if extradition could be pronounced in law and in fact. We think, however, that she should have left this matter to a magistrate," which is precisely the point this newspaper and others had made in the midst of the crisis. The commissioners make an excellent case for the minister to have signed immediately without delaying (though we must keep in mind that her solicitor general backed her in her refusal to sign.)

And while the Government was maintaining that Coke's constitutional rights had been breached - which the commission now upholds - there was other evidence apart from intercepted communication which gave sufficient grounds for his early extradition. Why was that not used? The commissioners should have engaged that issue, and done so rigorously.

The commissioners could have done a much better job, which would have staved off some of the criticisms of them. Of course, some of the criticism is due to the fact that the PNP is deeply disappointed that what could give them a knockout punch at this time just evaporated before their faces. But apart from the usual partisan noise, an objective analysis of the report, plus what we can recall from the actual evidence presented at the commission, showed that much more analysis needed to have been done.

Some of the comments were downright silly. For example, the former commissioner of police is chided for going to Major General Saunders and to his security minister to tip them off about an extradition request before it had reached proper channels. Says the report: "The commission can understand the police commissioner's concern for security, but he may have gone too far." That's absolute nonsense. The man had a duty to inform his security minister and alert his prime minister - as he did - about what was coming.

The JLP has won this one, but I am afraid at the expense of a deepened cynicism by many non-partisan people.

Ian Boyne is a veteran journalist. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and ianboyne1@yahoo.com.