Energy sustainability and supply security

Zia Mian, Guest Columnist

Governments globally are faced with the challenging task of deciding on the energy source or mix of sources on which their strong economic pillars can be built. In making this decision, the sources decided on need to be affordable and in sustainable quantities so as to ensure energy security.

This decision is of paramount importance with the currently high and increasing cost of oil. There are those who believe that the answer is in renewable sources. While the availability and environmental benefits of renewable energy sources are being touted, research has shown that significant benefits can also be derived from the use of nuclear energy, an option that should not be overlooked.

Concerns regarding the use of nuclear as an energy source may have arisen since the March 11, 2011 earthquake (measuring 9.0 MW) and tsunami (with waves of up to 14 metres) that devastated Japan. The tsunami disabled emergency generators required to cool the reactors at the Fukushima I Nuclear Plant. Following this destruction, radiation releases at the plant necessitated evacuations in the surrounding 30km radius. However, significant technological advances have been made in nuclear energy which warrants that, at the very least, it be given serious consideration.

The 15th biannual International Conference on Enhanced Nuclear Energy Systems recently held in San Francisco, coincided with the 51st anniversary of the first laser demo that was held in 1960. There were about 92 nuclear expert speakers from all over the world in attendance. The issues intersected the interests in fusion, fission and hybrid nuclear-energy systems; enhanced safety and security; and the role of nuclear energy in global energy supply security and sustainability. One key host of the conference was the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in Livermore, California. The NIF was completed in 2009 at a cost of about US$2.2 billion, and is an impressive facility with 192 powerful laser beams. It is the single-largest construction project of the US Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration.

Technology of the future

The NIF is the world's largest and most energetic laser, which has the goal of achieving nuclear fusion and energy gain in the laboratory for the first time. Dr Ed Moses, director of NIF and Photon Sciences, highlighted the importance of laser technology by stating that: "Achieving ignition on NIF can be a defining moment for the world's energy future." The fusion is the technology of the future (expected to be commercial by 2050). It will help to attain energy independence in the United States by reducing reliance on imported hydrocarbons to generate electricity or fuel the transport sector by providing cheap electricity to run hybrid electric cars.

Professor Charles Forsberg, executive director of the MIT Nuclear Fuel Cycle Project, while discussing the energy challenges that the United States faces, postulated that the global energy future would be determined by two sustainability goals: a) non-reliance on imported crude oil; and b) ensuring that there is no climate change. He argued that oil and gas reserves are mostly concentrated in politically volatile regions (such as the Persian Gulf) and their availability and prices are driven by political decisions. He challenged the participants to research the history and discover for themselves that all major global conflicts, including the World Wars, originated from the political desire to control the global oil resources.

Dr Steven Aumeier from Idaho National Laboratory articulated: "The magnitude and timing of growth in energy consumption will, likely, create a global imperative to deploy energy-production technologies that balance the three pillars of energy security:

• Economic stability - relates to the affordability of energy products, stability and predictability in their price, and the efficient and effective deployment of global capital resources in their development;
  
• Environmental sustainability - relates to minimising the negative impacts of energy production to air, land, and water systems and advancing the long-term viability of using particular resources in ways that do not limit future generations' ability to prosper;
  
• Resource security - relates to the ability to access energy resources and products where and when necessary, in an affordable and predictable manner. For a sustainable energy future, therefore, a reduction in reliance on imported oil is a prerequisite."

Dr Aumeier further added that: "... Developing methods and approaches to integrate nuclear energy into a broader range of energy markets and energy carriers (beyond electricity) may be valuable in meeting these challenges."

It is clear that the global energy future would be determined by sustainability goals. Oil is not likely to provide sustainability, as its price would continue to be determined by non-energy fundamentals (eg geopolitics, financials, hedge funds or commodity-price speculations). It is within these sustainability goals that the nuclear energy would play an important role in the future supply and security. Vision 2030 Jamaica, having recognised these sustainability goals, has placed emphasis on:

"An energy sector that possesses the flexibility and creativity to adopt and adapt to new and appropriate energy technologies (such as fuel cells, small nuclear plants) that may emerge over the long term."

Growth hurdle

When one speaks of nuclear energy, it is interpreted by some that a nuclear lobby is driving the thought process. Nothing could be further from reality. Countries need to have a vision to move forward and secure their future. In the case of Jamaica, energy cost has been a hurdle to growth, as well as an impediment to international and regional competitiveness of the productive sector.

It is a fact that more than 94 per cent of Jamaica's energy needs are met from imported oil. Reluctance of successive administrations to make timely decisions to add adequate generation capacity, thus avoiding costly blackouts, have resulted in the acquisition of high-cost peaking generation plants on an emergency basis. These plants are run on diesel oil and, at present, provide a substantial part of our baseload electricity. Such baseload capacity is expensive in comparison to conventional baseload generation. If this situation is not reversed, we face a bleak future.

During the early 1990s, the vision for Jamaica's power sector was to develop coal-fired baseload generation capacity at Salt River to be commissioned in either 2001 or 2002. A lot of preparatory work was done to achieve this objective, including a Japanese grant through the World Bank to provide technical assistance for this project. Unfortunately, lack of investment decisions on this strategy ultimately resulted in the addition of diesel fuel-based generation capacity that was acquired during the early 2000s to avoid blackouts.

By 2001, developments in the LNG industry had made it more attractive to deploy combined-cycle technology while using low-cost natural gas as the diversification fuel. This vision proposed a timeline to bring LNG to Jamaica by 2005. We are now hoping that LNG will fire the proposed 480MW of new generation capacity expected to be commissioned by 2014-2016. In the meantime, Jamaica has paid heavily for the importation of liquid fuels to keep the economy humming.

Considering global developments, in achieving its vision for the 2020s and beyond, an alternative option for Jamaica is to deploy hybrid nuclear technology with plant sizes that do not compromise its system reliability and safety. This is the vision that will allow Jamaica to bring cheap electricity, while reducing its dependence on imported oil, with its politically volatile prices.

Clean energy

Although the Fukushima I accident has somewhat tarnished the image of nuclear energy, the fact is, this facility was commissioned in 1971 and was not designed to withstand a 9MW category earthquake or tsunami exceeding six-metre waves. Dr Steve Kidd, deputy director general at the World Nuclear Association, believes that it is unlikely that Fukushima is going to change the world energy supply and demand outlook. The world still needs large quantities of clean energy and nuclear is one of the possible answers to that. Fukushima I doesn't change this assessment.

There is a big role for nuclear in the future of world energy - that hasn't changed for many countries around the world. Dr Kidd further states that nuclear is a very good and very safe way of generating clean electricity in large quantities. So the new assessments will overcome the immediate rather negative sentiment that has resulted from Fukushima (see: www.mineweb.co.za - The State of Nuclear after Fukushima and Germany).

At present, there are 439 nuclear plants in the world that provide about 370GW of generation capacity. By 2020, this capacity is expected to increase to 500GW when there will be more nuclear-powered countries, particularly in Asia, Africa and the Middle East (including oil-rich Saudi Arabia). It is likely that both in China and India, the regulatory regime will become more stringent and independent. Fukushima I would definitely have an impact on bringing changes to the existing plants with similar designs and upgrading them. However, the modern plants do not suffer from such weaknesses.

So let us hark and not kill the messenger.

Zia Mian, a retired senior World Bank official, is director general of the Office of Utilities Regulation (OUR). Views expressed in this column are those of the author and do not directly or indirectly reflect those of the Government of Jamaica or the OUR.