Holness leaves PNP empty

Ian Boyne, Contributor

The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) seems determined to retain state power and not to smash this window of opportunity presented by the impending Golding resignation. The JLP has, in two weeks, moved from a party whose electoral chances many had written off to one which a number of people feel has the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) in consternation.

The Holness youth card which the JLP has skilfully played seems, in the opinion of many, to have left the PNP empty. Not only have both The Gleaner-Bill Johnson and Don Anderson polls revealed that, stunningly, the JLP has come from way behind in just a few days to be neck and neck with the PNP and its popular and charismatic leader: The Gleaner-Bill Johnson polls show that even if we could contemplate the unthinkable, that Portia Simpson Miller would follow Bruce Golding, that would not help the PNP, as 'youthful' Peter Bunting would trail Andrew Holness by 12 points in any electoral contest. So it seems the 65-year-old Simpson Miller is still the PNP's best bet.

The PNP, therefore, can't take the bait of Prime Minister Bruce Golding, who mischievously invited the PNP party leader, in his national address last Sunday, to follow "the worldwide trend" of having a younger person lead as "there are young people ... in both parties who are capable of providing the leadership that the country requires at this time." He then went on to suggest that "we must not, for the sake of personal ambition, block their emergence". But making way for a younger leader in the PNP would not help, if we follow the Bill Johnson polls. The PNP is in one helluva dilemma, some would say.

Beautiful choreography

This is not helped by the fact that the Labourites seemed determined to make all the right moves and to break the curse of fractiousness and divisiveness which have characterised them in the past. Last Wednesday at the Terra Nova, some key JLP parliamentarians and Cabinet members came out to endorse Andrew Holness as leader - with them, main potential contenders Christopher Tufton, Audley Shaw and Bobby Montague seated at the head table with Prince Andrew to show their full solidarity with him.

All made speeches of endorsement, deferring to the man whom The Gleaner/Bill Johnson polls showed on that very morning would win by a landslide if they dared face him in an internal party contest.

The JLP is choreographing this one beautifully - with the PNP starved of appropriate clips of bleeps and blunders with infighting and charges and countercharges. Party leader Bruce Golding seems to be guiding this transition process smoothly and ensuring that Daryl Vaz does not ruffle any more feathers. Daryl can be contrite and diplomatic when he needs to be. Whatever the factions are in the JLP, they are all united in one overarching aim: to beat the PNP in the next elections and to gain a second term in office.

But I keep cautioning you not to underestimate the PNP's strategic brilliance. In terms of communications strategy, political marketing and the management of perceptions, the JLP has been pupils to the PNP masters. The PNP will devise strategies to respond to the wave of enthusiasm and excitement gripping the country over the prospect of Holness' leadership of Jamaica. Already, the PNP has been going after him and you can expect that to continue, not just with empty propaganda but with a substantial critique of his record of performance, including his voting record and behaviour in Parliament.

But I am sure that the PNP understands that elections are not primarily about reasoned arguments and coldly rational calculations. As the philosopher David Hume said famously, "Reason is slave to the passions." And a whole slew of studies in neuroscience have been showing the non-rational factors involved in decision-making and perceptions. In decision-making, emotions, biases, prejudgements and prejudice play a far greater part that we realise.

Power of hope

Books such as Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces that Shape Our Decisions (Dan Ariley); Sway: The Irresistible Pull of Irrational Behavior (Ori Brafman and Rom Brafman); How We Decide by Jonah Lehrer; and The Believing Brain by Michael Shermer draw on an abundance of scientific studies and anecdotal experience to show how irrational and emotive-driven we are when making decisions. This is why parties with the best ideas and programmes are not necessarily those which win state power. It is those parties which can most effectively market themselves and connect with people's emotions, fears and desires which usually win electoral contests.

The Holness appeal has a great deal to do with the power of hope. Hope springs eternal in the human breast. The PNP will try to rationally argue that Andrew Holness was part of that "old, discredited Golding Cabinet which signed off on disastrous decisions which significantly increased poverty, unemployment and hopelessness among the poor and which tried relentlessly to protect that convicted mobster and criminal don Christopher Michael 'Dudus' Coke".

They will show that he has been around for many years, promoting "failed, anti-people policies which have held back poor people and which have set back people's hopes".

It's the same old damnable, unworkable JLP policies being repackaged as new and different; Andrew Holness representing just another reincarnation of Bruce Golding. All this talk about youth and renewal, the PNP will maintain, is just a three-card trick to stay in power. The PNP will be going to town, you can bet. Don't expect them to roll over and die. It will be an intensely fought contest, and don't start making safe bets just yet.

But one thing you can say: There has been a renewed sense of hope, a heightened expectancy of change; a relishing of a prospect for something new and truly different in a handsome, well-spoken, gentlemanly, decorous and amiable Andrew Holness. People are seeing Andrew Holness not as a Labourite, but as Jamaica's bright new hope. This point is not to be missed. People always want to hope; to believe in new messiahs. People have boundless faith. We are cultured in Christianity. We don't feed on just hard, cold facts. We don't walk by sight, to quote a popular scripture. We walk by faith.

All around, people are telling me they will give Andrew Holness a chance. Many of them don't care one damn about the Labour Party, and even less about Bruce Golding. They just see in this young man competence, decency, cleanness, sincerity, good-naturedness, good 'broughtuptcy' and a desire to serve his country.

The PNP will have a hard time in robbing people of this hope. Andrew gave an impressive speech at the Terra Nova last Wednesday, striking the right notes and reaching out to the right segments of the society and the global community. He talked of pursuing equity (trying to eclipse the Progressive Agenda?) and efficiency - which he went on to define as inherently against corruption. For, indeed, as is well documented in the economic literature, corruption and rent-seeking behaviour severely harm efficiency.

Andrew had the right tone, at one point seeming to be on the verge of tears. (That seemed genuine, as anyone thrust in power so suddenly would be.) He talked about his sobriety and his inclusiveness. He reached out to independent people and to PNP supporters. He pledged to be a prime minister of all the people. He said the right words.

Can't afford to misspeak

But while apparently sending signals to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the international community, he might have blundered to talk about "continuity" with present JLP policies. That is not something he wants to prattle about too much. Wisely PNP apologists latched on to that and sought to discredit his freshness by referring to his pledge to continue the Golding policies.

Andrew must clearly identify those policies which have gained broad national consensus to stake his continuity on and not leave it so broadly for him to be attacked. He needs to have seasoned communications practitioners to script and coach him. For he can't afford to misspeak even once in this high-stakes contest.

Mark you, he has been doing well generally, apart from his continuity gaffe. Significantly, in St Ann, he rejected the binary youth-experience contrast, saying we need both, and adding, "We have Edward Seaga and Bruce Golding." (The resurrection of Eddie Seaga is both genuine and a clever strategy to woo old-time Labourites and to demonstrate his inclusiveness.) So the octogenarian is praised alongside "people coming after me" to show the balance of youth and age in the JLP.

For now, Andrew he is riding the wave. He's the man now. But we are a fickle people .We don't stay in love for too long. So he had better get ready to consummate this marriage before people change their minds! Some say December is an excellent season for marriage: It's also the season of goodwill and good cheer; the season of hope, of forgiveness and for focusing on positives, not on negatives like Manatt, Dudus, IMF and other things we want to put behind us.

Near the end of the week, the PNP got back into the news, after being chased from the front pages and the headlines, by drawing attention to our troubled relationship with the IMF. The party wants to bring us back down to earth, to reality. If they can show that Andrew still won't be able to safely guide us out of the claws of the IMF beast, we might begin to think twice and the adrenaline rush might abate.

I am all for thinking and not just using emotions to decide issues, as I don't need to tell my regular readers. The PNP will now be forced to deal with ideas, programmes, alternatives. They can't just sell Portia for her charisma, compassion and love for poor people and for her emotional appeal. The JLP has played a countercard to deal with that. Holness seems to have colted the PNP game.

That might not be bad thing. For it might force the PNP to elevate substance over style, critique over charisma, and policies over propaganda.

Ian Boyne is a veteran journalist. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and ianboyne1@yahoo.com.