Habemus Papam: The Pope is selected

A man, born in 1972, the same year that current Prime Minister Bruce Golding took his first bite of Parliament, Holness was in gestation for the first five months of Golding's novitiate and was only eight years old when his political sire, Edward Seaga, tasted his first and only legitimate election victory, in 1980. This is an important fact because, unlike his likely opponent, in the next general election, due any time before December 2012, he had nothing to do with any of the political developments which marked the 1970s and 1980s, some of the darkest days of our political life.

Indeed, the only 'viable' JLP obstacle standing in the way of his acclamation, Mike Henry, was not only part of that period, but he has been a political icon for so long, he might have wet his feet when crossing the Red Sea. Holness, notwithstanding this, is not a rookie.

Entering Parliament in the eighth year of Seaga's 16-year odyssey in the political wilderness, Holness, then fresh with the stains of maternal milk on his lips, went on to win three elections in West Central St Andrew.

Holness a threat for PNP

Holness presents a daunting challenge, if not a leviathan, for the People's National Party (PNP). For the past two years, the portly Peter Phillips led a PNP inquiry and revelation of surreptitious dealing regarding the delayed extradition of Christopher 'Dudus' Coke. In a saga which wound like a Sherlock Holmes or Agatha Christie novel, the matter ended with Coke's voluntary departure to face the music in the United States and an enquiry by a commission, hand-picked by Golding and henpecked by PNP attorney K.D. Knight and others.

In the end, we knew nothing. The main protagonist, 'Labourphile' Harold Brady, who stated that he was contracted by the Government to engage the American law firm, Manatt, Phelps & Phillips, batted his eyes, stared blankly and said nothing, remaining as silent as Commissioner Anthony Irons during the enquiry. The commission found no one culpable, and to date the JLP maintains that the party had engaged the firm, and the commission agreed. Significantly, Holness, like the Pope, was celibate of the whole affair.

Let us not pretend: Inasmuch as Holness has been in Parliament for more than 14 years, and is the rising star; like the namesake contest, it is not a case of the most talented winning but the person who can amass the most votes. Call a spade a trowel, and shovel the PNP into the discourse. In the run-up to the 2007 election beginning with the fight for the leadership of the PNP back in 2006, Sista P, for all her popularity, was not the preferred persona of elites within the PNP. Founded by intellectuals and university men, including Professor M.G. Smith and educator Howard Cooke, the PNP hosted a bitter battle to succeed the departing P.J. Patterson.

Many awful things were said about Portia's intellect and abilities by her own party, and I will not repeat them here; ignorance is bliss. In the end, Portia was the happy victor.

I have no evidence to think that Holness is smarter or more capable of being prime minister than the other would-be candidates. Mike Henry has loads of political experience and has run private enterprises and sporting clubs. Pearnel Charles, trade unionist, has more than 40 years of politics behind him, where his best days are. But he is savvy. The eloquent Bobby Montague, who knows the rounds and has been an elected politician for more than two decades, is no chicken, although he ran afoul of the public with his strident treatment of an infirmary official two years ago.

No hope in Shaw

At 59, Audley Shaw is not yet in the valley, although he is just getting over the hill, but important, he is minister of finance. Even though he, with a bad case of foot-in-mouth disease, predicted no ill effect of the global financial crisis in 2007, he is managing the economy in the most challenging times. However, without refuelling his electoral energy at a Cool Oasis, the polls suggest that his leadership won't make him take the Labourites across the political desert.

Christopher Tufton, Dr Cassava, who did a decent job in agriculture, is a university lecturer, with loads of research. In his new portfolio of commerce and industry, he looked like a shoo-in. Having recovered from the slip of his tongue a few years ago; this genuine 'front-runner' would not encourage persons to put their X beside the head this time. But he would not beat Portia in an election now.

Saving his brain?

In comes Holness. Seaga endorsed him in a wink, his face scarcely recovering from the smirk in the aftermath of Golding's announced fugue. Picture his stand-off with the Jamaica Teachers' Association over a number of issues, including the poorly thought out, and even more poorly defended, appointment of Alphansus Davis as chairman of the Teachers' Service Commission. It took the departure of Golding and his Gorbachevesque intervention for Holness to relent from senseless petulance. And as soon as Bruce was getting loose, he was joining the Brady brunch. Such a move could only suggest that Holness was saving his brain from the political challenges of leadership.

Nevertheless, the public, in several polls, have indicated that of all government ministers, he was doing the best job. Boxill/RJR researchers found that he was the person the public would most prefer to lead the JLP. Hot off the press, surveys by The Gleaner's Bill Johnson and Don Anderson demonstrate that Portia has a mere four points on him. That is a statistical dead heat.

The PNP is now caught off-guard, even to the point of one spokesman forgetting that P.J. was in office after Portia was elected president, and criticising the JLP for the same anomaly. Portia and her older passengers in her JEEP have a major hurdle in young Holness, who may very well take it home if he times the elections better than she did. When the smoke settles, the nation, and not just the JLP, might say, habemus papam.

Orville Taylor, PhD, is a sociologist and university lecturer. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.