Holness noses ahead but Portia could bang

OrvilleTaylor, Contributor

It's still too close to call, but it appears that the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and Andrew Holness have more of the popular support than the Portia Simpson Miller-led People's National Party (PNP). However, the lead is so small, only optimists, gamblers and perhaps 'Clif-twang' Brown could eloquently predict the outcome of the election. The parties are so close in the polls that the Labourites and Comrades smell like each other.

The Gleaner-Bill Johnson polls put the JLP and Holness ahead by a nose, with 31 per cent of respondents indicating that they would most definitely vote for the Labourites, while 29 per cent reported that the PNP would get their X. This is the most important statistic, despite the numbers being augmented by a set of people who stated that they would 'probably vote' for each. This category would give the JLP an additional five and the PNP three percentage points, respectively, for totals of 36 for the JLP and 32 for the PNP. A marginal of error of four per cent puts this into a statistical tie.

Conducted around the same week, the RJR Boxill survey gave the JLP 41.2 per cent against the 38 per cent for the PNP. Although Boxill also has a margin of error, this time three per cent, and thus another dead heat, the combined sample size means that in all honesty, the JLP's lead is a real one, which cannot be explained away by the error.

no traction from JDIP

This must be annoying for the PNP because, the JLP has given the public scores of reasons not to return them to office. But the PNP got no traction from the Jamaica Development Infrastructure Programme (JDIP), with its blatant breaches and suspected corruption, the inaccurate statements by the prime minister of education as he announced the date for the election, and the assault on the press for doing its job.

Not even the obvious truth allergy and amnesia by the security minister have shaken the potential electors. Indeed, despite the aircraft being in 'plane' sight, the American journalist's revelation that the US government assisted in the Tivoli incursion, and the prime minister's unsuccessful attempt to prevent Pinocchio's nose from growing, the Labourites are leading.

The truth is, the PNP has yet to capture the imagination of the Jamaican electorate, having spent the last few years pointing out the flaws of the JLP rather than telling us why we should put them back into power. In spite of the poor macroeconomic performance of the Government, with its increase in the critical indicators of poverty and unemployment, recent polls show that the majority of Jamaicans do not blame it for the crisis. The JLP has embarrassed us with the Manatt-Dudus affair, vilified the trade union movement, unjustly interdicted the head of the Pharmaceutical Society, alienated the Jamaica Teachers' Association, unleashed the ire of its supporters on the media and is pussyfooting with information relating to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Yet its momentum has not waned.

Even the JLP's song with the catchy hook, 'me and mi neighba, voting for Layba', is being sung from the mouths of babes and sucklings, and even my orange-blooded Comrades concede that it is the most 'vibesy'.

'hack-a-Bruce' campaign

Admit it or not, Bruce Golding pulled a coup on the PNP and caught it flat-footed. Having spent its intellectual capital on a 'hack-a-Bruce' campaign as Golding became more and more a liability, the party still doesn't yet have an answer to Holness, who really is his own enemy and is showing his own slip, as opposed to the PNP disarticulating him.

It presented its slate of candidates two weeks after the JLP, and, of course, released its manifesto last week. Produced only two weeks before the election, this 63-page document is telling us what we have been asking for since they began telling the JLP they should pack their bags and go. Among its basket of goodies is the Jamaica Emergency Employment Programme (JEEP). Intended to be financed by the already undercapitalised JDIP, it has set tongues wagging about the unsustainability of this plan. Also contained in the manifesto is an intention to renegotiate the IMF agreement. Good idea, but let it be known, that renegotiation of a contract or agreement can only take place if the other party is willing to give you the chance to do so.

Still, it is clear that the JLP is not comforted by its lead and it shouldn't be. Elections have been lost in the past where the party with the most total votes still lost in seat numbers. For example, in the 1949 election, interestingly held in December as well, the JLP won 18 seats to the PNP's 14, although the PNP had the popular vote. Then, the PNP amassed 203,048 votes compared to the JLP's 199,538.

This is well-known, and it perhaps explains the apparently underhanded attempt by elements to divert votes from young Damion Crawford, who faces the JLP's Joan Gordon-Webley in East Rural St Andrew. A namesake, as silent as Harold Brady in the Manatt enquiry, popped up and got nominated.

However, the JLP takes no credit for that and seeks to rubbish any attempt to connect the interloper to it. My comment is that all is fair in a democracy and seeking a conspiracy would be a solid waste of time. However, if the other Crawford is, in fact, a decoy, he and his collaborators, as my mother would say, 'deserve a fine arson'.

For the PNP to cross it, however, it has to smash the debates and come clean on the Trafigura matter.

It is still a sticking point for the uncommitted voters who, according to the polls, are now taking one side or the other. The amount it is spending in the courts to prevent its principals from being questioned could be better spent on good campaigning.

Digesting the debates

As for the debates, you can judge as to whether the glib-tongued Audley Shaw was rolled over by Peter Phillips last Thursday or if Portia bangs Andrew into submission on Tuesday tonight. However, there is no doubt who won the first, among the young bloods of both parties: the PNP.

The JLP's Warren Newby was calm, rehearsed and in charge of his facts; Dr Longmore was unconvincing; and the learned ex-judge Marlene Malahoo Forte lost her composure. Lisa Hanna was stately, but her information was off target and she did fail the media fact check. A possible glimmer of hope for the future of the PNP was the star of the debate, Raymond Pryce. For want of a better expression, Pryce manhandled his opponents and, without needing support for his colleagues, was proven a master debater.

However, his response to the Trafigura fiasco was patently PNP and as unsatisfactory as that of his party and leadership on the whole, with the stencilled retort, "It was a donation." Such a retort, in an era when transparency is a catchword, is an affront to his intelligence. It is a pity that such fluency and wit should be sacrificed in backing a position which is not only unsupportable but downright hypocritical.

Hopefully, by the time Portia and Andrew line up, she will be prepared to simply tell the truth regarding Trafigura, which at least 10 per cent of the electorate wants to know.

She could well do with this group now, who might just top up her ballots if she comes clean on the matter.

Dr Orville Taylor is senior lecturer in sociology at the UWI and a radio talk-show host. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and tayloronblackline@hotmail.com.