COP-in or COP-out?:

The geopolitics of climate change

Joan Grant Cummings, GUEST COLUMNIST

The 19th Meeting of the International Climate Conference of the Parties (COP 19) was recently concluded in Warsaw, Poland (November 11-22, 2013). The importance of the COP is to gain a global consensus on: mitigation; adaptation; financing, among other things, on climate-change effects. COP 19, held at the Warsaw National Stadium, were aptly dubbed 'The Warsaw Games'. Characterised by tears, walkouts, COP-outs, 'huddles', red lines, and fasting (hunger strikes), nicknames included: 'The Hunger Games Too', 'Play Dirty for Me', and 'The Great Escape'.

In October 2013, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung - Jamaica (FES) partnered with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Government to hold pre-consultations on COP 19. Participant Dr Mariama Williams, a Jamaican economist and researcher at the world- renowned South Centre, expressed optimism that Warsaw would establish an international mechanism on loss and damage (LAD). Post COP 19, she reported: "It almost didn't happen ... something squeaked through!"

This fact should be celebrated. You may ask what this has to do with the 'average Jamaican' or the price of sugar? Or even Goat Islands? Consider this! Each major flood, drought, hurricane or other extreme weather event potentially wipes out economic gain, undermines production, and destabilises the Budget. A logistics hub must take this into account, too!

We experience increased intensity and occurrence of weather events. Food security and scarcity, increased prices of basic foods - sugar, cornmeal, bread, vegetables, fruits; water woes and housing insecurity will again make the news. Fishers, farmers and industries reliant on their products are significantly affected. This is climate change.

On January 29, FES, with the Government and UNDP, reassembled Jamaica's team of mainly government officials and civil-society representatives to receive the report on the outcomes of COP 19 and to preview the planning towards COP 20 in December 2014. Climate Change Minister Robert Pickersgill was in attendance.

He reiterated the words of UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, who noted that climate change is the "most critical issue of our era". He made reference to the extreme flooding in St Vincent that had killed about nine people and caused US$108m damage - 15 per cent of the country's GDP. He further shared that 40 per cent of the top-10 risks to the global environment are linked to climate change, with two of the largest global corporations (Coke and Pepsi) now on a campaign to get governments to deal with it. Climate change will affect global GDP by 12 per cent. We need to apply this analysis to the Goat Islands scenario.

THE COP 19 TRAILER

The major goals for Jamaica (G77 & China) going into COP 19 were to get agreement on:

Finance - with regard to the Green Climate Fund;

Movement within the ADP, a working group formed at COP 17 (Durban 2011) (COP 17) to establish a new commitment plan by 2015 on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and financing.

Adaptation

Loss and damage (LAD) - the third pillar with adaptation and mitigation - 'squeaked through'.

THE GOOD, THE BAD, AND THE UGLY

The three major stars are: The G-77 & China; the Umbrella Group; and the European Union (EU). The Umbrella Group, mainly developed/Annex I countries, includes the United States, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Russia. Their position: Developing countries should undertake quantified emission-reduction commitments with the developed countries, regardless of being responsible for 80 per cent of the existing GHGs.

The EU, civil society observes, "hide under a halo". Their mission: Remove a core UNFCC principle - 'common but differentiated responsibilities', or CBDR .

The G77 and China represent the interests of the developing countries in the climate negotiations and include the BASIC nations - Brazil, South Africa, India and China; the Africa Group; the Alliance of Small Island Developing States (AOSIS), among others.

Their position: Developed countries should make greater commitments to cutting carbon emissions, while the developing countries, aided by financial and technical support, should also make efforts to cut their emissions on a voluntary basis.

THE PLOT

The LAD was first put on the table by the Caribbean in 1991, observing that LAD is financing beyond adaptation and mitigation, and is related to climate change-impacted weather events.

Financing of the agreed Green Climate Fund 2020 has stalled and is of major concern to countries like ours. The need to avoid warming of global temperatures below two degrees - to prevent sea-level rise - directly impact the Caribbean and other small islands who stand to be submerged.

While as expected, opposition or red lines were put up by the US and the EU, to the shock of many, Japan announced it was COP-ing out of its higher GHG target. A few days later, Japan proceeded to offer the G-77 bloc US$16b in funds. A negotiator observed that this was intended to placate developing countries after their strong condemnation of Japan. CSOs termed Japan's game-playing, 'Play 'Dirty' For Me'.

NATURE SPEAKS

As with COP 18, when Hurricane Sandy ravaged the US, the COP 19 games were held as the most powerful typhoon (hurricane) in history, Haiyan, affected the Philippines. The Philippines head of delegation made an impassioned plea, to "end the madness".

His pleas went unheard. Near conference end, China warned that talks were on the verge of delivering virtually nothing and expressed solidarity with the more than 800 leading representatives of CSOs who walked out. The CSOs charged that the blatant attempts by the US to get out of its commitments could only be described as "The Great Escape"!

LESSONS LEARNT

The cohesion in the final hours within the G-77 and China, with the actions of global civil society, demonstrated what can be achieved when governments and peoples pull together as one team.

Despite these challenges, the full operationalisation of an international mechanism that deals with the issue of LAD, vital to vulnerable countries like Jamaica, is now possible. Climate change compromises the lives and livelihoods of all - with a disproportional impact on women, youth, seniors and people with disabilities! Much work leff fe do! Come, my lizard posse!

Joan Grant Cummings is a development specialist and a volunteer with the Jamaica Civil Society Coalition. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.