PNP HOLDS LEAD

Voter apathy has jumped significantly over the last three months, with 35 per cent of Jamaicans now indicating that they do not intend to cast a ballot in the next general election.

The figure represents a 14.4 percentage point increase since September, when 20.6 per cent of Jamaicans said that they would not vote in an RJRGLEANER Communications Group-commissioned survey.

Added to that, 18 per cent of the 1,015 Jamaicans who participated in the latest survey conducted by pollster Don Anderson and his Market Research Services Ltd team were undecided – a 5.8 percentage point decrease since September.

The new poll was carried out between November 24 and December 7.

Still, it would be a ding-dong dogfight between the country’s two main political parties with the opposition People’s National Party (PNP) leading the governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) by three percentage points at 25 per cent.

Twenty-two per cent of Jamaicans, 18 years and over who are registered to vote, said that they would vote for the JLP.

The figures represent a four percentage point falloff for both political parties when compared to the September poll. At that time, 29.5 per cent of respondents indicated that they would vote for the PNP while 26.1 per cent said that they favoured the JLP.

That poll had a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent at the 95 per cent level.

Similarly, the latest survey, which was paid for by senior executives of a private-sector company who asked not to be identified, has a sampling error of plus or minus three per cent at the 95 per cent confidence level.

GAPS REMAIN SAME

“… I think people are saying we’re going to have local government elections before. Here is where our thoughts are. General [election], they know, may be some time afterwards. I think there is less commitment at this point in time to vote,” Anderson told The Gleaner.

“But what’s interesting is that the gap remains the same. The falloff has been equal for both parties,” he added.

Twenty-four per cent of the men polled indicated that they would vote for the PNP, compared to 23 per cent of the women.

For the JLP, 26 per cent of the women found the party favourable while 22 per cent of the men said that they would vote for the governing party.

“What’s interesting is that when you look across the age groups, in recent years, you have found that the JLP has been able to attract more of the younger voters. But in this particular situation, more of the younger voters said that they would vote for the People’s National Party.

“At the same time, when you go to the other extreme, the persons in the 65 age group are the ones who said that they would vote for the PNP. So in the middle is where the Jamaica Labour Party tends to have their greatest support,” said Anderson.

He said Jamaicans aged between 25 and 34 years showed a four percentage point gap in favour of the PNP, while in the 55 to 64 age group, there is a similar four percentage point gap in favour of the JLP.

“So there is a fair amount of shift in the age profile of the respective supporters,” Anderson said.

kimone.francis@gleanerjm.com