Tread carefully in Monday’s ninth race

MONDAY’s Easter Sprint Cup boils down to whether MAHOGANY, though technically down two classes, can return off a seven-month lay-up to outsprint overnight-allowance runners at five and a half furlongs.

MAHOGANY is no stranger to winning off a lay-up. Numbered among four victories in his last five starts is an overnight-allowance win, off a six-month break, last June.

A pair of effortless open-allowance victories followed, August and September. However, fragile MAHOGANY was pulled lame from the Grade 1 Gold Cup a month later, hardly doing anything at exercise for the rest of the season, and most of this year, until stepped up within the last month.

His best effort at exercise has been a bullet 1:00.4 for five furlongs, out the mile chute, fast but not what has been accustomed to from a speedster who twice flirted with track records.

MAHOGANY’s well-being must be put under the microscope, opening up the event to many possibilities, including the scenario of a collapsing pace.

Speedy United States-bred RUNAWAY ALGO is on a four-timer and working well, 1:06.3 at the distance last Friday morning. Though the opposition was suspect, CURLIN’S AFFAIR won easily last time out at six furlongs, clocking 1:12.3, making him a dangerous stalker.

ONE DON’s trainer, Gary Subratie, relishes these occasions, sneaking under the radar with a horse who, at first glance, appears unsuited to the distance. However, it should be noted that ONE DON was sharpened at five furlongs straight two Sundays ago, finishing five lengths behind NUCLEAR NOON, three and a quarter off runner-up BILLY WHIZZ.

Don’t rule out the fly on the wall, American I AM FRED, a relentless galloper, who loves running along the rail and returns to the grade which he easily beat on his last outing. Despite preferring a longer trip, I AM FRED is a determined runner with a strong rider, Philip Parchment, who knows the four-year-old gelding well.

The impulsive bet will be to bank on MAHOGANY’s back class. However, races are not won in stalls. Therefore, tread carefully, especially in closing any exotic bet in Monday’s last race.