Gordon Robinson | Crime has always been out of control

Peter Bunting’s incessant insistence that murders were lower when he was national security minister is beyond tiresome.

He always has numbers nearby to support his immaterial and misleading boast, including comparative budgetary allocations. Well, numbers, schnumbers! Violent crime, especially murders, has been out of control since 1975. It was out of control when Peter Bunting was national security minister, and he admitted as much when asking for divine intervention. It’s still out of control now. It’ll continue to be out of control so long as a corrupted police force is Jamaica’s main defence against violent crime.

So what on earth is the purpose of this puerile penis-measuring contest?

But if it’s numbers you want, here are some numbers. Starting with 1970 and ending with 1979, the annual number of murders were: 1970 - 152; 1971 - 145; 1972 - 170; 1973 -227; 1974 - 195; 1975 -266; 1976 - 367; 1977 - 409; 1978 - 381; 1979 - 351.

The increase in murders in 1975 (36 per cent) and 1976 (38 per cent) led to an island-wide state of emergency being declared in June 1976 that lasted a year. Yet murders increased by another 12 per cent (54 per cent above 1975 numbers) in 1977.

So according to Bunting’s favourite debating tool (numbers), murders were obviously out of control in the 1970s.

In 1980. Jamaica recorded a debilitating 699 murders, but that massive increase was driven by vicious political warfare with international “assistance”. So as unfeeling as this sounds, we must draw a line through 1980 and try to pretend it never happened. Let’s begin again and take a look at the 1980s, starting with 1981.

Number of murders recorded during 1980s (I can’t find 1985 numbers):

• 1981 - 490 (40 per cent above 1979);

• 1982 - 405 (decrease of 18 per cent);

• 1983 - 424 (five per cent increase but still a decrease from 1981);

• 1984 - 484 (increase of 15 per cent);

• 1986 - 449 (down by eight per cent);

• 1987 - 442

• 1988 - 414

• 1989 - 439.

The ‘80s began with 490 murders and ended with 439. The average was 443 per year even including the 1981 number (obviously a hangover from war-torn 1980). After 1981, there were fewer than 450 murders in every year. Still, compared to the 1970s average (1971-1979) of 279, the average annual murder rate increased by 62 per cent!

This is the definition of out of control.

Five hundred and forty-three murders were recorded in 1990 (24 per cent increase on 1989). The rest of the ‘90s (three years’ numbers missing in action presumed dead):

• 1991 - 561;

• 1992 - 629 (13 per cent increase);

• 1994 - 690;

• 1995 - 780 (another 13 per cent up);

• 1998 - 953;

• 1999 - 849.

The 1990s produced an average of 635 murders per year or a 44 per cent increase on top of the 62 per cent 1980s increase.

This is what out of control means.

At the dawn of a new millennium (2000), Jamaica recorded 887 murders – a record high. The “noughties” recorded:

• 2002 – 1,045 murders (a new record);

• 2003 – 975 (still higher than the old record);

• 2004 - 1,471 ( 51 PER CENT ABOVE 2003).

Murderers: “Yu t’ink sey wi done? We jus’ a cum!”

• 2005 - 1,674 murders (another 14 per cent increase).

Thereafter, Jamaica never saw triple digits again as 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009 recorded 1,340, 1,574, 1,601, 1,680, respectively, to close the “noughties” on yet another new high.

From 2000-2009 (excluding 2001), the average annual murder rate was 1,361 or a 115 percent increase on the 1990s. This came on top of a 44 per cent increase in the 90s and a 62 per cent increase in the 80s.

One more picture (hold it): This is the epitome of out of control!

In 2010 we celebrated a drop in murders to 1,428, but that was 51.5 murders per 100.000. In that category, we peaked at 61 in 2005 and again at 56 in 2017. Then we were fifth in the world. In 2021 (49 and rising), we are second behind perennial “winners” El Salvador.

COUNTERPRODUCTIVE, SENSELESS, AND IRRELEVANT

Finally, let’s look at 2010-2019. In 2010, 1,428 murders represented 15 per cent down from 2009. In 2011, we went down again (by 22 per cent) to 1,125.

So with all his hullaballoo, Peter Bunting’s beloved statistics prove that in 2012, he took over a portfolio that had been showing significant declines in murder rates. 2011’s number was 33 per cent lower than 2009.

This is what Peter Bunting did with those numbers:

• 2012 - 1,097 (three per cent down);

• 2013 - 1,200 (10 per cent increase);

• 2014 - 1,005 (17 per cent decrease);

• 2015 - 1,192 (19 per cent increase).

His last year produced 67 more murders than 2011 (six per cent increase) and his four-year average was 1,124, which was 11 per cent less than the “noughties” 10-year average (itself a 115 per cent increase on the 1990s - difficult not to improve on that), but he closed his brief, volatile tenure asking God for help with murders higher than when he took over.

It’s a pity he didn’t get another five-six years so we could compare apples with apples using nine- to 10-year averages, but PNP lost an election it and every pollster predicted it would easily win. PNP lost that election on two major issues, one of which was out-of-control murders. That loss has permitted him to use four-year numbers to pretend murders weren’t out of control under his watch. But they were.

When Bunting arrived, our murder rate per 100,000 was 39 and declining. When he departed, it was 42 and on a steep upward trajectory (source: World Bank).

Annual murders 2016 to 2021:

• 2016 - 1,350 (14 per cent increase);

• 2017 - 1,647 (22 per cent increase);

• 2018 - 1,287 (22 per cent decrease; lower than 2016);

• 2019 - 1,339 (four per cent increase; lower than 2016);

• 2020 - 1,323 (one per cent decrease; still lower than 2016);

• 2021 - 1,463 (11 per cent increase).

The six-year average is 1,402 (25 per cent above Bunting’s four-year average) and three per cent above the “noughties” average.

Overall, the 2010-2019 average was 1,275 – thirteen higher than the “noughties” average. 2020-2021 produced a two-year average of 1,393 (10 per cent above the 20-teens and 11 per cent above the disastrous “noughties”). 2022 (so far) numbers suggest that murders are again heading “up, up, up!”

The only lesson to be learned from Bunting’s favourite crutch (stats) is that murders have been out of control for 50 years through many PMs and national security ministers, including Peter Bunting. This silly, childish measuring of my numbers against your numbers is a nationally counterproductive, senseless, and irrelevant game.

It’s time to channel Michael Finnegan:

There was an old man named Michael Finnegan.

He grew whiskers on his chinnegan.

Shaved them off but they grew in again.

Poor old Michael Finnegan, begin again.

Begin where? The consensus must be that violent crime, especially murders, is out of control. What happened when another party was in power doesn’t matter a flying fig because it’s the same difference. Both parties have tried blame deflecting crime plans (including sweeping up and indefinitely detaining youths of ill repute or unfortunate association), which have been abject failures. It’s time to try something new.

ROOT OF THE PROBLEM

I propose that BOTH political parties start with the man in the mirror and admit the painful truth that BOTH have been and are responsible for the out-of-control violence. BOTH have associated with gunmen; encouraged politically affiliated gangs; undereducated too many Jamaican youth, making them more susceptible to gang recruitment; turned a blind eye to growing police corruption, including gang membership of too many cops; and often encouraged criminal activity by the police with the formation of “elite” squads with deadly missions to eradicate crime by any means necessary.

THIS is the root of our crime problem. It lies in our politics and not on the streets. So we must reform our politics to ensure that government by whimsy doesn’t continue indefinitely. The nonsensical political football game already begun with solutions to violent crime as the ball (PM finally calls for “consensus” and Bunting says Government must first “repent”) proves that BOTH parties prefer political gimmickry to citizens’ interests. Neither wants “consensus” not only because they are equally responsible for violent crime and clueless as to solutions, but also because any true “consensus” would have to include we the people.

BOTH parties want nothing to do with us. They only want to protect power bases, promote selfish agendas, and win votes. When SOME of us get involved, our “National Consensus on Crime” is treated like a routine colonoscopy - temporarily uncomfortable but soon forgotten.

So long as politicians can act in secret; be funded in secret; suffer no check, balance, responsibility or accountability, violent crime will continue to spiral further out of control. “Vote dem out” is no solution. That only ushers in more of the same in different clothes. We must insist that political representatives are systemically forced to represent us and act in our interests. If we don’t, they’ll continue to govern themselves while unruly citizens do the same ignoring law, order, method, or common sense.

And chaos shall surely follow.

Peace and Love!

- Gordon Robinson is an attorney-at-law. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com