Jamaica grows 1.9% in September quarter

The Jamaican economy expanded by 1.9 per cent during the September 2023 quarter and is projected to grow further, but remains vulnerable to shocks, the Planning Institute of Jamaica, PIOJ, said in its quarterly briefing on Wednesday.

“The recent heavy rains which followed a sustained period of dry conditions in the previous quarters, have further highlighted Jamaica’s vulnerability to these shocks and the negative impact on the economy,” said Director General Dr Wayne Henry.

Jamaica still is assessing damage following the passage of tropical cyclone number 22 on the weekend. The storm passed without any reported loss of human life in Jamaica, but in neighbouring Hispaniola over 21 persons died.

The 1.9 per cent economic growth from July to September 2023 arose from a 2.3 per cent expansion of the goods industry and 1.8 per cent for services.

Over nine months ending September, growth in the Jamaican economy was estimated 2.8 per cent.

The PIOJ presents preliminary estimates on economic performance for each quarter. Its findings are based on early information available from the major data providers. Consequently, its figures are subject to adjustment as additional information emerges.

The final estimate of growth for the quarter will come later from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica.

PIOJ’s preliminary estimate showed 102 per cent growth of the mining and quarrying sector in the September 2023 quarter, reflecting the reopening of Jamalco alumina plant. But the economy was dragged down by ‘agriculture, forestry and fisheries’, which contracted by 9.0 per cent, having been beset by droughts before last week’s nationwide showers from the passing storm.

The performance of the construction sector was flat at zero during the quarter. It was negatively affected by a two-thirds decline in groundbreakings for new residential housing projects, particularly those led by state-owned National Housing Trust. Also, the value and volume of mortgages disbursed declined by 45 per cent. Tempering the performance was the spike in road construction and the projects by the power utility Jamaica Public Service Company.

Tourism activity increased 8.0 per cent due to a rise in foreign national visitors. Henry noted that from July to September arrivals increased 5.5 per cent to some 682,590 visitors by plane. Those by cruise dipped 20 per cent to 178,410 passengers. However, visitor spend increased by about 6.0 per cent to $991.0 million during the quarter compared to year earlier levels.

PIOJ is also forecasting growth of 1.0 to 2.0 per cent for the October to December quarter; 2.0 to 3.0 per cent for the full calendar year; and 1.0 to 2.0 per cent for the fiscal year ending March 2024.

Jamaica’s economy declined 10 per cent during the initial phase of the pandemic, which decimated business activity, jobs and disposable incomes. That was the largest contraction in at least a generation. Henry previously said that it also led to higher levels of poverty and widening inequality.

The economy rebounded at a faster than expected pace with employment moving towards record levels.

The unemployment rate stands at 4.5 per cent with the addition of 47,100 jobs mostly in the outsourcing sector, based on the July survey conducted by Statin.

Henry said that the Government recognises that it needs higher-skilled workers. Various arms of the state are engineering programmes to train youth, as well as upskill existing professionals, he said.

steven.jackson@gleanerjm.com