Yaneek Page | Jamaica’s low birth rate not just bad for business

Is there unnecessary hysteria over Jamaica’s new, historic, low birth rate, now estimated to be below the population replacement rate?

Absolutely not. Our low birth rate predicament isn’t an orphan. It resides under the same roof with three other major problem children: an ageing population; high migration; and small population with stagnant growth.

Now picture this: classrooms with fewer children, more of your tax dollars diverted to social safety net programmes for the vulnerable, but still inadequate to meet the growing needs. Imagine long lines of elderly patients filling overcrowded, understaffed hospitals. Young adults will find themselves working harder and caring for their ageing parents and grandparents, while facing low wages and fewer opportunities for advancement. The healthcare system, already stretched thin, will struggle to cope with the influx of elderly patients suffering from chronic diseases.

More skilled professionals, including teachers, doctors, nurses, will leave the country in search of better opportunities abroad; the strain on those who remain will only intensify, deepening a brain drain that further cripples the country’s capacity to care for its people. Some businesses will be forced to close or downsize, as they can no longer find qualified workers. Low levels of innovation and productivity will plummet even further, and there will simply not be enough talent to sustain growth. The lyrics from Buju Banton’s 1995 hit song Untold Stories will ring true – Who can afford to run will run, but what about those who can’t? They will have to stay.

Without intervention, this may be Jamaica’s reality if current demographic trends persist – declining quality of life, economic slowdown, and the crippling weight of caring for a generation growing older without enough support. For the working class, the burden will become unbearable. Although some may argue that this is already the case, it will only get worse.

The writing is on the wall, our consistently high negative migration rate has been hovering at -4.0 per cent to -7.0 per cent in recent times, outside of pandemic years. Many are leaving, in search of better economic opportunities, to countries like Canada, United Kingdom and Unites States than those who are coming. For context, Jamaica has been the largest source of origin for black immigrants to the United States for years, followed closely by Haiti.

Greying population

Our birth rate declined by over 10 percentage points from 21.7 per 1,000 in 2000 to 11.4 per 1,000 in 2022. By 2030, over 11 per cent of the population will be elderly, rapidly growing beyond the current 7-plus per cent, and more reliant relatives to support them, amid low and inadequate pension coverage.

It’s not hysteria. Yet, many social media users have expressed annoyance with the spotlight on our demographic crisis. As one 32-year-old professional put it: “ENOUGH! We don’t need to hear any more about this.” But we do. Indeed, the growing apathy among many child-free millennials who have chosen to forgo family and parenting in a significant ideological shift is an overlooked, but critical dimension.

For many of these adults, the decision is rooted in more than financial uncertainty or desire for personal freedom. There is deep dissatisfaction with the traditional economic systems and societal expectations. There is also anger at the glaring inequalities within societal structures.

The decision to remain child-free is often intertwined with a broader sense of disgust at the growing disparity between the rich and the rest of society. While the wealthy continue to accumulate more wealth, enjoying opportunities for growth and security, the middle class, the backbone of the economy, finds itself slipping into financial instability, with fewer opportunities for advancement. The dream of owning a home, securing decent work, liveable pay, and surviving without crushing debt is increasingly out of reach for many.

At the same time, the poor remain trapped in cycles of poverty, seemingly condemned to a life of struggle with little hope of upward mobility.

The systems designed to create opportunities, such as education, healthcare and housing, are failing. In fact, they perpetuate inequality. The barriers to success appear higher than ever, with the cost of living rising faster than wages, and economic growth benefiting only a small portion of the population.

The conundrum

No academic, policymaker, or politician can call on younger citizens to “do their part” by starting families, and frame it as a solution until they see life through their lenses. Some may feel their choices and lifestyles are under attack. They may even reject what they perceive as an outdated narrative that ties personal fulfilment to family and children, and argue that the environmental, economic, and personal realities of today are far different from those of previous generations.

The traditional natural progression in life – marriage, children, and family – has, for them, become a symbol of struggle, compromise, and sacrifice without adequate societal support. We must determine if our biggest hurdle is now an anti-family, anti-children ethos as an act of defiance against a system that is broken.

Let’s face it: it’s hard to ignore how the wealthy continue to profit from these failing systems, while the rest are left behind. Society constantly bears witness to how government policies often favour big business and certain private-sector interests, often with deep ties to political parties, while little is done to address social and economic injustice. Inequity breeds resentment, and many young people feel disillusioned with a society that promises fairness but delivers only for the privileged.

To move forward the question must be answered: what’s the incentive to bring children into a world where quality of life is declining, parents feel trapped between pay, rising cost of living, and greater demand to tackle work and home stresses?

Without thoughtful engagement, that ideological divide will deepen. Until younger generations feel heard, understood, and genuinely supported, they’ll never heed a call to reverse population decline.

One love!

Yaneek Page is the programme lead for Market Entry USA, and a certified trainer in entrepreneurship.yaneek.page@gmail.com