Earth Today | ‘No more hot air’
Report urges less talk and more action to reduce emissions that fuel climate change
Published:Thursday | October 31, 2024 | 12:06 AM
COUNTRIES ARE fast running out of time to make good on the commitment to limit the increase in global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius, as part of efforts to keep the planet safe from climate change calamity.
That is the picture painted by the 2024 Emissions Gap Report of the United Nations Environment Programme.
Titled No more hot air … please!, the report makes it clear that countries need to demonstrate not only ambition, but also a strong commitment, through significantly scaled up and successfully implemented actions in order to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
GHG emissions, caused in part by the human consumption of fossil fuels such as coal and gas, fuels the warming of the planet and triggers climate impacts – from extreme weather events to sea level rise and the associated implications for food and water security, as well as for public health.
Given this reality, countries have committed, through the historic Paris Agreement, to “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels”.
CRUNCH TIME
But without nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that reflect scaled-up ambition and commitment, it will be impossible to get there. Writing in the foreword of the latest Emissions Gap report, UNEP boss Inger Andersen said it is now “crunch time”.
“Nations must accelerate action now, show a massive increase in ambition in the new pledges (NDCS) and then deliver urgently with policies and implementation. If they do not, the Paris Agreement target of holding global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius will be dead within a few years and two degrees Celsius will take its place in the intensive care unit,” she wrote.
The report, meanwhile, revealed that global emissions set a new record in 2023.
“The increase in total GHG emissions of 1.3 per cent from 2022 levels is above the average rate in the decade preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (2010-2019), when GHG emissions growth averaged 0.8 per cent per year. The rise is in all sources of GHGs, except land use, land-use change and forestry CO2, and across all sectors,” it said.
Among the sectors that grew rapidly in 2023 were the power sector, transport, agriculture, and industry; as well as aviation, “which dropped significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic, [but which] showed the highest growth at 19.5 per cent in 2023 from 2022 levels”.
Further, the report said the emissions gap in 2030 and 2035 “remains large, compared with pathways limiting warming to 1.5 degrees and two degrees Celsius”.
EMISSIONS GAP
“The emissions gap is defined as the difference between the level of global GHG emissions resulting from full implementation of the most recent NDCs and levels under least-cost pathways aligned with the Paris Agreement temperature goal,” the report explained.
“The emissions gaps in 2030 and 2035 have remained unchanged since last year’s assessment, as there have been no submissions of new NDCs with significant implications for global emissions, no updates to the quantifications of their implications, and no updates to the least-cost pathways,” it added.
In order to get back on track, the report said, sharp declines will be necessary.
“Unless global emissions in 2030 are brought below levels resulting from current policies and from the full implementation of the current NDCs, it will become impossible to get to a pathway that limits global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius with no or limited overshoot (>50 per cent chance), and strongly increase the challenge of limiting warming to two degrees Celsius. Starting from the global emissions implied by the current unconditional NDCs for 2030 would double the required rate of annual emission cuts between 2030 and 2035, relative to immediately enhanced action,” the report explained.
“Specifically, if action in line with two degrees Celsius or 1.5 degrees Celsius pathways were to start in 2024, then global emissions would need to be reduced by an average of 4 and 7.5 per cent every year until 2035, respectively. If enhanced action that goes beyond current unconditional NDCs is delayed until 2030, then the required annual emission reductions rise to an average of 8 per cent and 15 per cent to limit warming to two degrees Celsius or 1.5 degrees Celsius, respectively,” it added.
Meanwhile, Caribbean small island developing states, backed by the science, have continued to champion the pursuit of the 1.5 goal, noting that for temperatures to rise above those levels it will mean disaster for them.