Master plan for the aviation sector

Jamaica’s aviation regulator wants to develop a master plan that addresses expected passenger growth, the dearth of local operators, and the impact of aircraft such as drones, the technology around which is still emergent.

The plan, to span 25 years, will delve into the expectations for aviation up to year 2050, and the Jamaica Civil Aviation Authority, JCAA, is looking for a consultant to develop the master document.

The development of the 25-year Civil Aviation Master Plan, CAMP, is expected to address the technology, expected growth in air traffic, workforce, safety and security, and issues related to climate change, as all the major airports are sited close to the sea, the authority said in documents released last month.

“The CAMP will be the state-level strategic plan for the civil aviation industry that outlines Jamaica’s outlook for civil aviation within its borders. The CAMP will provide systemic guidance on the all-encompassing structure and major components needed for the safe and orderly modernisation of the national civil aviation system in Jamaica,” it said.

Various attempts to speak with industry interests regarding the plan and what role, if any, they would have in its development were unsuccessful, as were efforts made over several weeks to elicit comment from the JCAA about the plan.

In regard to technology, key considerations include artificial intelligence; unmanned aircraft; robotics; biometrics; blockchain; big data; alternative fuels; ultralight materials; hybrid electric aircraft; autonomous vehicles; urban mobility; and the internet of things, the tender for the consultant noted.

JCAA’s outlook on drones is unstated. But the technology, otherwise known as unmanned aerial vehicles or UAVs, is advancing to the level that the crafts may soon be utilised for the transport of people.

In its 2035 forecast of trends in aviation, for instance, the International Air Transport Association, IATA, a trade association of the world’s airlines, has already noted that passenger drones could see the evolution of rooftop take-offs of passenger flights, but considers it a minor threat to the business of the airlines.

So-called passenger drones are currently being tested around the globe, and the weight limits and range continue to expand.

In the event that they do emerge, local regulators may seek to geofence such drones to prevent easy exit from the island, but the operators of the craft might still be able to deploy them cross-country.

IATA considers the bigger threat to be small aircraft acting as unregulated taxis that are integrated to ride sharing apps, similar to the disruption of Uber to the regulated taxi market.

“‘Passenger drones’ or variants on personalised aircraft, for example with rooftop take-off, may have some impact, but a more substantial threat may come from the extension of an Uber-type algorithm-based integrated transport system that links up small aircraft capacity at local airfields,” the airline group said.

Passenger drones are currently being tested around the globe and the weight limits and range continue to expand.

In the event that they do emerge, local regulators would likely seek to geofence such drones to prevent easy exit from the island, but the operators of the craft might still be able to deploy them cross-country.

The face of Jamaica’s aviation industry has undergone various changes in the past two decades, including the privatisation of the country’s two largest airports, which are now owned and managed under concession by a Mexican airport operator.

While aviation in Jamaica has been steady service in relation to passenger flows and airlines entering and exiting the space, there are elements that have disappeared. Notably, Jamaica no longer has a national carrier following the sale of Air Jamaica to the Trinidad government, domestic providers of air travel have come and gone, and flight schools such as Wings Jamaica, Caribbean Aviation Centre and Caribbean Aerospace College no longer exist. In terms of market entrants, a flight school known as Aeronautical School of the West Indies is in operation at the Tinson Pen aerodrome in Kingston.

JCAA statistics show that air passenger flows have increased, but airline movements, that is, the number of times airplanes land and take off, have declined from their peak over the period.

The flight schools were the feeding ground for courier companies, such as Tara Couriers, seeking pilots for domestic deliveries via air; as well as commercial airlines such as Air Jamaica, which merged with Caribbean Airlines of Trinidad and ceased operating in 2015; and Fly Jamaica, which shuttered in 2019.

As for domestic passenger carriers, their dislodgement were marked by the closure of Air Jamaica Express in 2005, Air Shuttle in 2013, and others.

Air travel dwindled during the pandemic but has since recovered lost ground. For instance, Sangster International Airport, which is the busiest airport in the Caribbean, processed 5.27 million arriving and departing passengers in 2023, hitting a new record in the process.

Notably, in the apex year of the pandemic, 2020, Sangster handled 1.6 million passengers, down from 4.7 million in the prior year; while for the two main airports combined, Sangster in Montego Bay and Norman Manley International in Kingston, passenger traffic had declined by two-thirds to 2.25 million from 6.62 million in 2019.

Jamaica has three international airports, the third being Ian Fleming International in St Mary. And there are 17 heliports, and seven airstrips in varying states of operation. Sangster handles 26 international carriers and two domestic carriers, based on a list posted to the airport operator’s website.

Over time, that is from 2003, airline passenger movements doubled in the ensuing decade from 1.8 million to 3.5 million in 2013, and doubled again to 7.0 million in 2023, JCAA data shows.

Within the same period, the number of aircraft movements declined from 88,000 in 2003 to 62,270 in 2013 to 66,800 in 2023. Sangster accounted for 44,482 of those movements.

The International Air Transport Association projects that global passenger traffic will rise to 16 billion by 2050. Essentially, the numbers are forecast to triple relative to the pre-pandemic outturn of 4.8 billion achieved in 2019.

The expected growth is top of mind for JCAA.

“Rising air traffic demand has put additional pressure on the country’s civil aviation sector, including from an institutional perspective,” the regulator said.

“The recovery of the aviation industry remains uncertain, due to factors such as carbon mitigation, inflation, and lower disposable incomes that may yet impact the propensity to fly for business or travel.”

The agency added, however, that Jamaica has a prominent position within the corridor between North America and South America, and that the levels of accelerated growth seen in countries from which the bulk of overflights originate, such as Colombia, means that Jamaica must improve its preparations to capitalise on these trends.

Aeronautical Telecommunications Limited, a subsidiary of JCAA, expects to earn $530 million from overflights this fiscal year, which would be the largest contributor to the overall $1.3 billion of revenue it expects to earn. Overflights contributed an estimated $410 million last year, according to preliminary figures published in the Jamaica Public Bodies report.

The sectoral challenges that JCAA is asking the hired consultant to assess include the “proliferation of unmanned aerial vehicles and autonomous aircraft and integration into current airspace and air traffic management systems; inadequate data collection, analysis, storage, and exchange; demographics, shortages of aviation professionals and loss of institutional knowledge; and inadequate availability of local capacity and aviation competency development opportunities”.

Bids are due by May 6.

steven.jackson@gleanerjm.com