Garth Rattray | Destructive weather phenomena – a promise of things to come

Our oceans are warming and producing more frequent and more extreme weather phenomena. These destroy coastlines, infrastructure, buildings, lives, and economies. Hurricane Beryl set several records. It was the first major hurricane [east of the Lesser Antilles] for June; and it was the first to reach Category 5 this time of the year.

These are ominous signs of the acceleration of global warming because of human activity. On July 3, Beryl’s eye barely missed the southern coast of Jamaica, but left a trail of devastation. Several deaths were attributed to her.

Some months ago, our coasts were battered by a series of unusually high waves. People were concerned that, although there was no significant weather phenomenon, the waves were aggressive and invasive. It made many citizens feel extremely vulnerable to the effects of global warming.

Waves from the oceans and seas mostly occur because of wind. They are called wind-driven or surface waves, which are formed because of the friction between the wind and the surface of the ocean. Sometimes we also experience tidal waves. These are formed as a result of the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon. They are not to be confused with tsunamis, those are caused by earthquake activities. Although waves will always occur, we used to have ample mangroves and coral reefs to reduce their kinetic energy and therefore protect our shorelines.

I used to enjoy going to Hellshire (in St Catherine) just to stand on the beach and look out at the beautiful sea. I was shocked at the amount of beach erosion that has occurred, because of wave action.

ENVIRONMENTAL DESTRUCTION

A prime example of environmental destruction is plain to see at the Norman Manley Highway (formerly known as the Palisadoes Road) from Harbour View to the Norman Manley International Airport. There is a stark difference between the thick mangroves in 1962 (during the filming of the first James Bond film, Dr No) and today’s huge and ugly boulders used to protect that peninsula from the ravages of heavy waves. The mangroves were subjected to raw effluent from a non-functioning Harbour View sewerage treatment plant, for many years.

Between global warming, pollution (especially from plastics and effluence), waste from some factories and other developments, excessive deforestation for housing and mining, our planet is experiencing an environmental crisis. We are also denying the aquifer its needed moisture by paving everything in sight. The water runs off without being absorbed, scours, and denudes everything in its path to the sea.

We are accelerating global warming and causing our polar ice to melt. When added together, the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are losing somewhere between 750 billion and 1.2 trillion tons of ice each year. All that water will cause the sea levels to rise. When this happens, we will experience erosion of our beaches (thus ending our tourist industry) and damage to our wetlands. The increased inland salinity will invade and inundate our wetlands, destroy our many marshes, and pose a serious problem to our coastal aquifers. Eventually, many crops will die.

At the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, France on December 15, 2015, an international [legally binding] treaty on climate change, the Paris Agreement, was adopted by 196 participating countries. It was entered into force on November 4, 2016. Its goal was to limit the increase in global temperature to below two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. It is generally believed that the limit should be 1.5 degrees Celsius, and that, if we passed and sustained that limit for several years, there would be dire consequences to our environment.

TEMPERATURES

Most scientists believe that we are currently at 1.1 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures. Some believe that we are at the 1.3 degree Celsius mark. However other scientists believe that we have been at 1.7 degrees Celsius above the limit for years now. Those scientists have been studying six sclerosponges … they grow very slowly, live in underwater caves, are protected from ocean currents that alter water temperatures, and therefore lock climate change data within their limestone skeletons.

The heat change is so bad that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has added three more levels to its coral reef alert system because of the increasingly severe coral bleaching (about 90 per cent of Jamaica’s corals are bleached) and higher mortality rates resulting from elevated and long-lasting temperatures. In a February 8 news release, the NOAA said, “The widespread intensity of this heat stress was the catalyst to this new update in December 2023.”

Additionally, there are warnings that the circulation of the Atlantic Ocean is heading towards a critical, unstoppable point of collapse. None can predict when this will occur, but it is evidently on track for a shift. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation system includes part of the Gulf Stream and other powerful currents. It acts like a marine conveyor belt, taking heat, nutrients, and carbon from the tropics towards the Arctic Circle. There, it cools and sinks into the deep ocean. This constant stirring helps to distribute energy across the globe and controls the impact of human-caused global heating. The last sudden shift occurred over 10,000 years ago.

Thanks to human activities, scientists predict that this year will see more deleterious climate impacts from the El Niño/La Niña climate cycle. Climate change is ostensibly a fait accompli; so, we must prepare for droughts, aggressive hurricanes, beach erosion, and coastal flooding.

Garth A. Rattray is a medical doctor with a family practice. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and garthrattray@gmail.com