Orville Taylor | Curry, GOAT and politics

Between the two main political parties, there is a residual 30 to 35 per cent faithful, who will never vote against their ‘born’ party. Within those groups are some of my dearest friends, for whom the party leaders can do no wrong and their opponents can do no right and push political lines with their eyes wide shut.

Last Sunday, the People’s National Party’s (PNP) conference had to be viewed on my largest television set, because of the massive crowd, big like ‘out a door’. Energised Comrades chanted “Time come” and other party tag lines. Of course, it would be hypocritical for me to deny that when the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) ‘shub out’ a few months ago, it also packed the venue.

So, here is the reality check; none of those tangerine-clad supporters last Sunday or the aforementioned Labourites dressed in emerald, will make any difference in the outcome of the next election. The largest group of registered electors is neither Comrade nor Labourite.

Within this heterogeneous group are the disaffected, nonchalant, who think that it is a choice between dog and monkey. Also, in this category are those who are interested in the issues and doubtless, ask, “what will the party do for me, if it wins?”

Comrade leader Mark Golding is slowly inching past the JLP’s Andrew Holness by a measurement in horse racing terms, less than a head. Recent Don Anderson polls indicate that some 35 per cent of Jamaicans would vote PNP versus 27 for the JLP. If the last local government elections are an indicator; then the PNP is slightly more popular and if the same set of voters turn up and mark their ‘Xs’, the green fruit will ripen and Golding will be the golden boy.

However, even the committed Comrades did not all turn out last time. More than 70 per cent of electors stayed away from the recent local government elections. Anderson’s June 2024 data show 19 per cent undecided and 19 per cent will not vote for either.

STAY ON COURSE

With an election about a year away, the party leaders need to stay on course and focus on the things that matter. Incumbent Holness may have a different objective from aspirant Golding. He is the two-time defending champion and perhaps, might have achieved all that he personally wanted to.

Given the persistence of the curry stain from the inquiries of the Integrity Commission (IC) and the departure of star-baller Finance Minister Nigel Clarke, who knows if his priority is to win next time?

Truth is, having achieved financial comfort, a prime minister’s salary as a pension for the rest of his life and self-actualised with a doctorate, he has nothing else in life to prove … except his affirming his innocence of the suspicions surrounding him. Moreover, the macroeconomic data are not negative.

On the other hand, apart from the low-hanging fruit of the popular vote and more seats in the last local government elections, Golding has won nothing yet. Moreover, he has more intra-party consensus to ‘Rise up’. Be not mistaken! He does have the majority support of the 30-plus per cent of Jamaican electors who are Comrades. However, a ‘belly-carrying’ minority needs to be wooed back into the fold. Only 73.1 per cent of Comrades think favourably of Golding, compared to 86.5 per cent of Labourite support for Holness. Significantly, 14.2 per cent of Comrades have a positive opinion of Holness as opposed to only 10.5 of Labourites for Golding.

Some 35.8 per cent of voters view Golding positively, who nips Holness at 34.6 per cent.

Therefore, Golding’s questions must be; will last week’s events make the apathetic Comrades come out and vote. Secondly, and most importantly, will this stimulate non-PNP registered voters to vote ‘yes’ to the head on election day?

DEFEND THE DECISION

Undoubtedly, I defend the right and decision of mega star Vybz Kartel to attend the conference. He is a citizen, from a PNP garrison and should defend the party even publicly if he wishes. Add to this, the ‘Emperor,’ Mr Sebolious, LA Lewis, and Accompong Chief, Richard Curry, and there is no ambiguity regarding these persons’ rights under the Constitution. Section 13 (3)(b) guarantees freedom of conscience and political choice.

Adding Curry to the agenda, however, is a calculation that must have been aligned to the fundamental goal of winning an election. There is yet no evidence that he represents anyone except himself and certainly nothing indicates that he carries the Maroon vote.

In fact, he might very well be a divisive presence. Still, that is a choice that the PNP has to live with, and only time will tell if it was the prudent decision.

As regard the ‘Gaza Boss’, although not a Shabba Ranks, his faithful, who see him as the ‘greatest of all time’ (GOAT) and will likely rampack his concert next year.

Still, Golding and the PNP leadership needed to know two things before bringing him up on stage. First, will he increase the support among those committed to the party as well as those who are yet undecided?

Most important, will he make the apathetic 71 per cent vote PNP. As popular as he is, some chunks of the voting population are antipathetic towards him. Is he more a consensus builder than divider?

We do not know if the Curry/GOAT alliance will translate into votes on election day.

Kartel might have upstaged the message of the Comrade Boss. By becoming the main news item, he deflected focus from the germane message from Golding. Even now, the majority of the silent 71 cannot recall what Golding’s very lucid electoral promises were.

When you put a bigger star than yourself to grace your stage, you run the risk of playing second fiddle.

For both parties, here is what history says; i) the party that loses support of the working poor, the security forces, anti-corruption elements and media, invariably loses the next election.

Lesson to the wise.

Dr Orville Taylor is senior lecturer at the Department of Sociology at The University of the West Indies, a radio talk-show host, and author of ‘Broken Promises, Hearts and Pockets’. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and tayloronblackline@hotmail.com.