Elizabeth Morgan | WTO: looking ahead

THERE HAS not been much focus on the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its work since the 13th Ministerial Conference (MC13) was held in February and Jamaica had its trade policy review in July. This organisation has been endeavouring to implement the work programme from the outcome document of MC13 – the Abu Dhabi Ministerial Declaration.

It will be recalled that trade should be playing a critical role in achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The WTO promotes free trade, but in the last decade, with many challenges, it would seem that enthusiasm for trade liberalisation has been waning, especially in the trade policy of a specific member. On the bilateral front, it seems that the EU and South America’s MERCOSUR trade bloc have recently completed negotiations on an agreement after 25 years. This indicates how trade negotiations have been progressing both at the bilateral and multilateral levels.

For now, it is projected that there is likely to be an increase in global trade. The WTO is projecting an increase in goods trade of 2.7 per cent for this year and possibly by three per cent in 2025, all things remaining on the current track.

STATUS OF NEGOTIATIONS

From the MC13 Declaration, among other things, negotiations were continuing on trade-related aspects of intellectual property rights (establishment of a multilateral register for geographical indications for wines and spirits), agriculture, development (special and differential treatment), and fisheries subsidies. You may recall that the WTO Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies, adopted at MC12 in 2022, is incomplete. The impression is that not much in the way of serious negotiations towards achieving consensus has actually occurred in the lead up to the July meeting of the General Council.

At the meeting of the Trade Negotiations Committee in July, the Director General, NgoziOkonjo-Iweala, told members, “Now is the time to walk the talk and move from reflection and brainstorming to action.” Members, she stated, needed to not only take, but be prepared to give. They needed to compromise, be flexible and open-minded, and to reach out to others, understanding their concerns and finding mutually agreeable ways forward. The director general, it is reported, issued an impassioned plea to members to negotiate in good faith with the common good in mind, calling on members to adopt the spirit of compromise in order to deliver on the key issues.

Clearly, enough progress was not made to arrive at agreement for the July General Council meeting. Following the summer break, work resumed with the aim to make progress by the General Council meeting on December 16-17. No one should be surprised if not much is achieved when this meeting is held.

DISPUTE SETTLEMENT REFORM

The WTO dispute settlement mechanism has been hamstrung since the Donald Trump administration of 2016-2020, when the US opposed appointment of new members of the Appellate Body. The US’ opposition continued through the Biden administration. The MC13 Ministerial Decision on Dispute Settlement Reform states that discussions should aim to resolve, by 2024, all outstanding issues, including those relating to the appeal and review process. There is no indication that this deadline will be met.

WTO members, it is reported, have been bringing fewer disputes to the WTO, which would use only the panel process, and have been using other means to resolve disputes, such as arbitration and bilateral approaches.

SMALL, VULNERABLE ECONOMIES

The MC13 Declaration continued the Work Programme on Small Economies (SVEs) within the Committee on Trade and Development to facilitate the integration of these members into the multilateral trading system by continuing to highlight their priorities and seek solutions in all aspects of WTO work. Areas of focus include e-commerce, supply chains, and trade-related climate change adaptation and mitigation policies. Discussions have continued based on papers presented. The agenda of this Trade and Development Committee is of specific interest to CARICOM’s WTO members.

REAPPOINTMENT OF THE DIRECTOR GENERAL

At a meeting of the General Council in November, NgoziOkonjo-Iweala was appointed by consensus in the WTO membership to serve a second four- year term to commence on September 1, 2025. It is stated that her reappointment reflects broad recognition of her exceptional leadership and strategic vision for the future of the WTO.

Dr Okonjo-Iweala is the first woman and African, a Nigerian, to hold this post.

She was first appointed in 2021 and has thus overseen the WTO at a very challenging time of pandemic, wars, other global geopolitical tensions, and environmental issues, including climate change. She oversaw two WTO Ministerial conferences, MC12 and 13.

Her next four years may be even more challenging as the Trump Administration starts a second term in the US on January 20, 2025. President-elect Trump has been proposing to immediately impose quite high tariffs on all imported goods into the USA, especially those from China, Mexico and Canada. Although tariffs are the preferred trade defence measure in the WTO, their indiscriminate application will be problematic there, signalling further resort to protectionism and the commencement of trade wars which could lead to recession. As stated, the WTO encourages trade liberalisation. Donald Trump’s nominee for the post of US Trade Representative (USTR) is Jamieson Greer, an international trade lawyer, who served in the Office of the USTR during the previous Trump Administration. Apparently, he is not a free-trade enthusiast and is anti-China. So, there is little hope of a softening of the US positions at the WTO.

The next WTO Ministerial Conference (MC14) is scheduled to be held, most likely in 2026, in Cameroon. This would be the second WTO Conference held in Africa. MC10 was held in Nairobi in 2015.

Interesting times are ahead in international trade and in the WTO leading to MC14.

Elizabeth Morgan is a specialist in international trade policy and international politics. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com