Gordon Robinson | What man has done ...

So the last set of Panderson Poll numbers for a poll conducted August 30 to September 14 have dribbled in.

Responders were asked to rank leaders’ “likeability” out of 10 with one being the lowest. 47.3 per cent scored Andrew Holness from 6-10; while 27.6 per cent scored Mark Golding similarly. This is a crushing result for PNP’s electoral chances despite some commentators suddenly asserting that Jamaican voters are no longer “leader-centric.”

The poll results don’t justify that paradigm shift since nobody declined to rate either leader or say “not sure” (if that option was available). In every other Jamaican poll, when it came down to brass tacks (for which party would you vote) there’s a large group of “not-sures” or “won’t-votes.” So leaders still attract most attention.

PNP clearly has no option but to propagate that the electorate is no longer leader centric because they’ve spent two years carrying a previously unknown leader island-wide; introducing him to “die-hearteds”; and conjuring up every conceivable party trick (pun intended) to make Mark more likeable.

It. Hasn’t. Worked!

The 27.6 per cent of the electorate that finds him “likeable” is significantly less than PNP base (now circa 30 per cent according to Polls) . This base seems disenchanted with his constituency candidate selection techniques; his apparently autocratic tendencies; and his patronising political platform performances.

But, in our system of shamocracy, likeability isn’t important. Evidently PNP’s base isn’t in Mark’s exclusive “topanaris” fan club. But the crucial issue is, like Mark or not, will they vote PNP? This is critical because our muckocracy operates like Jamaican men’s favourite sport, horseracing. Why? Elementary, my dear Watson. In Jamaican elections, as at Caymanas Park, who comes first wins! It’s worse in Jamaican politics because, unlike at Caymanas Park, there’s no second prize.

June’s PNP commissioned Panderson Polls resulted in a statistical dead heat with PNP favourites (30-25 per cent; margin of error plus or minus three per cent) to win the photo-finish. In September, Nationwide News Network commissioned Blue Dolt Polls also resulted in a statistical dead heat but named JLP as photo-finish winners (30-25 per cent; margin of error plus or minus 2.75 per cent). Interestingly Blue Dolt also had Andrew Holness far ahead (26.88 per cent) in a direct vote for PM but TWO PNP politicians, neither President nor Vice President, polled ahead of Mark Golding as the people’s choice for PM. Damion Crawford (16.88 per cent) and outgoing MP Lisa Hanna (13.93 per cent) both finished ahead of Mark (12.32 per cent).

If a MP who announced a year ago she’s quitting representational politics can still poll ahead of the leader and less than 1 per cent behind the highest rated party member to be PM what does that tell us? As my horseracing pal would say “sump’n inna sump’n.”

There’s good news for PNP just in case it might be discouraged from supporting constitutional reform for a direct PM/President election based on these poll results. In any such race, PNP would nominate one candidate not three. Blue Dolt responders have given the top three PNP choices a combined 42.13 per cent of a direct PM vote while the top three JLP candidates polled 39.82 per cent. So, one against one, with Parties united behind its candidate, it remains a statistical dead heat slightly favouring PNP. But I’d respectfully advise PNP to run Damion for a directly elected PM instead of Mark.

Just saying…..

September Panderson Poll party standings are hot off the press and JLP/PNP remain firmly in a statistical dead heat with the gap tightening. PNP scored 29.5 per cent; JLP 26.1 per cent (margin of error plus or minus three per cent). Why Beyond the Headlines would lead on Wednesday with “PNP would form the next Government if election was called today” is beyond me. The within-the-margin-of-error gap is now smaller than it was in June’s PNP commissioned poll. On any of the Polls, or on a combination of Polls, it’s still a coin toss.

A General Election isn’t due until 2025. But, in our passion to pretend to be British, we still allow one PM, unelected save by a gaggle of MPs kow-towing to Party Delegates’ dictates, to whimsically decide the election date. This sad, pathetic relic of colonialism has stayed longer than the mother-in-law and remains 12 years after our former masters introduced fixed election dates at Westminster for themselves.

Sigh.

But I’m unsure what effect changing this alone can have while we’re mired in a fetid electoral system that allows only a vote for MP after which Prime Ministerial Dictatorship automatically trips in. So, here we are waiting in vain for Constitutional reform’s promised Phase II as we’ve been waiting to sleep with our windows open; for a promised vote on CCJ; promised fixed election dates; promised term limits; and promised political job descriptions.

Until we arrive at that Never-Never Land, the next election date is up to Brogad. What’ll he do? If he waits two years he’s sure to be tortured by Integrity Commission’s (IC) drip, drip, tap drip approach to releasing reports regarding six parliamentarians “under investigation”.

As an aside, I must educate Tribalists that Party Leaders’ assertions that none of their MPs have received letters regarding “illicit enrichment” are useless deflections. I guarantee you not one single IC communication uses that phrase. As PM frankly said IC writes to MPs regularly. These letters normally contain queries relating to contents of statutory declarations seeking explanation or clarification. IC’s purpose may be to investigate possible illicit enrichment but no investigator starts by exposing his purpose.

It’s also reasonable that the six under investigation are more likely to be JLP MPs because of the simple reality that PNP MPs only have access to CDF funds. Accordingly, any attempt at illicitly enrichment is likely to end in disappointment and any aspirations in that direction squashed. JLP MPs are in the big trough’s neighbourhood so more prone to attracting suspicion.

So a lurking IC is a huge downside to waiting two years to call election. The obvious upside to waiting is the completion of several huge infrastructure projects; continued improvement in economic growth, employment; and opportunities for vote-buying tax relief. Also, there’s the distinct possibility that these benefits counter any IC action against any JLP MP especially after the passage of nine days or so.

Then there’s an additional complication called Local Government Elections. These must be held in November, January or early February. Will Government combine Local Government and General Elections?

If the Local Government Elections produce significant PNP gains (even within the framework of an overall loss) then every day passing before the next general election is a day JLP loses more support.

But, if JLP wins emphatically…..

The political strategy for both parties is to win at all costs. Al Davis’ mantra was “Just win baby!” As a superior political strategist with more political savvy in his Clarks than Mark has beneath his beret, you can depend on Andrew Holness to make the right call.

Which will it be? My answer has more to do with my anticipated near-at-hand future than any of the matters raised here.

Depends.

My quirky analysis says that Jamaica’s next election date could depend on happenings outside Jamaica. I’m as old as summer temperatures (too darn old) so I remember March 13, 1979’s Grenadian coup by the New Jewel Movement (NJM) that ousted Eric Gairy’s long standing Government and replaced it with a “People’s Revolutionary Government” (PRG) led by Maurice Bishop. By 1983, NJM internal divisions resulted in a group led by Deputy PM Bernard Coard placing Bishop under house arrest and taking control of the PRG government.

Bishop was then executed in circumstances that remain unclear. Prompted by Edward Seaga and Dominican PM, Eugenia Charles, President Ronald Reagan ordered a USA invasion of Grenada. Gairy was re-installed as PM.

In the local euphoria generated by Seaga’s claim to having rescued Grenada and the region from communism, ably assisted by clumsy PNP politicking especially from Paul Robertson (a future PNP GenSec), Seaga called a snap General Election on an outdated voters’ list despite prior assurances to the contrary. In a huff, Michael Manley boycotted the election.

So keep a close eye on Haiti. Not so, long ago USA ordered its citizens out of that already war-torn nation. I predicted then (on Twitter) that an invasion was nigh. Jamaica has promised troops which are already in training.

Two weeks ago Joe Biden asked United Nations to authorize a Kenyan led multinational military intervention in Haiti. “I call on the Security Council to authorize this mission now,” Biden said. “The people of Haiti cannot wait much longer.”

Legendary educator Margaret Sasso (Musgrave Prep) always said “what man has done, man can do!” Will an American “liberation” of Haiti with Jamaican soldiers pee-pee-cluck-clucking along combined with clumsy PNP politicking cause history to repeat itself?

Peace and Love.

Gordon Robinson is an attorney-at-law. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com