Peter Bunting | Restoring order, building peace

Reflecting on 2024, Jamaica has seen a significant decline in murders, marking a shift from the previous years of escalating violence under the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) administration. The number of murders in 2024 has, for the first time in nine years of the current JLP administration, returned to the lower range that obtained in the previous People’s National Party (PNP) administration.

This reduction is a testament to the effectiveness of targeted policing strategies over the ineffective states of emergency (SOEs) previously employed by the Andrew Holness administration. The People’s National Party has long advocated for data-driven, focused action to combat crime - a stance validated by the security forces’ recent adoption of these strategies. This progress, though overdue, offers hope for a safer Jamaica.

LEARNING FROM THE PAST

While 2024’s numbers are encouraging, it is critical to assess the eight preceding years of stagnation and missed opportunities in crime reduction. Under the PNP’s administration from 2012 to 2015, the average annual murder figure was 1,129 — still high but the lowest in two decades. By contrast, the JLP’s first eight years (2016–2023) averaged 1,416 murders annually, a 25 per cent increase that resulted in 2,300 more lives lost than if the PNP’s numbers had been maintained.

Jamaica’s homicide rate remains alarmingly high, compounded by an increase in mass shootings in 2024. Additionally, financial crimes such as scamming and bank fraud that are estimated to fleece victims of over US$1 billion annually, remain untracked by the Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF) in their weekly Serious & Violent Crimes Report. These crimes often fund organised violence and must be addressed through comprehensive tracking and enforcement.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Policy leadership has not demonstrated competence analysing, interpreting, and extrapolating data. The prime minister (as recently as at November 3, 2024) was predicting that “we are on track to record fewer than 1,000 murders by year’s end – fewer than we have experienced in 20 years”. He was wrong on both counts as the preliminary numbers show 1,140 murders in 2024, well above the 1,005 murders in 2014, which is the lowest in the last 20 years.

Concerns persist about the accuracy of the JCF’s crime statistics, particularly allegations of suppressed murder totals. Reports from internal JCF sources suggest that over 100 deaths are currently classified as “undetermined” pending forensic examination, raising doubts about the reliability of published data. The commissioner should address these concerns quickly and transparently to maintain public trust.

THE FAILURE OF SOEs

The doctrinal reliance on SOEs has proven to be a costly misstep. These measures, aimed at projecting toughness, failed to dismantle criminal networks or address the root causes of violence. Instead, they eroded community trust and diverted critical resources. By contrast, the PNP’s advocacy for selective targeting of violent criminals has shown measurable success without the economic damage or stigmatisation caused by locking down entire communities.

EMBRACING A PUBLIC-HEALTH APPROACH

The adoption of a public-health approach to violence prevention, as seen in the private sector’s Project STAR, aligns with the PNP’s earlier Unite for Change initiative. This model treats violence similarly to a contagious disease and addresses root causes such as poverty, poor socialisation, unemployment, and inadequate education. Although abandoned by the JLP, this approach has gained regional traction with countries like St Kitts and Nevis, and just recently, Trinidad and Tobago, now adopting similar strategies. Jamaica has an opportunity to re-embrace this model and lead by example.

A VISION FOR 2025

To solidify the gains of 2024, Jamaica must adopt a comprehensive, holistic approach to crime reduction. This includes:

- Focus on hot people and hot places: target interventions on the small percentage of people and places responsible for the majority of violence. This includes enacting legislation proposed by the PNP for a court-supervised process of pre-charge detention of serious criminals on whom there is credible intelligence. This will facilitate prosecutable cases to be built and charges being laid within a prescribed timeframe.

- Balance enforcement with prevention: Law enforcement should focus narrowly on violent offenders, while community programmes address underlying causes like poverty, trauma, and lack of opportunity. This dual strategy reduces harm and fosters trust between communities and police.

- Invest in individuals at risk: help individuals manage anger, impulsivity, and conflict. Support programmes that interrupt cycles of violence – like the Peace Management Initiative (PMI) – and address the root causes of violent behaviour to reduce the likelihood of future offences. Provide training for employment and entrepreneurial opportunities.

- Rely on data and evidence: use rigorous data analysis to guide policy decisions, assess programme effectiveness, and ensure that resources are allocated efficiently.

The reduction in crime celebrated today is a step in the right direction, but the journey is far from over. Enforcement alone is insufficient. Jamaica must address the underlying conditions that perpetuate violence: inequality, social exclusion, and lack of opportunity. By building peace from the ground up, the nation can pave the way for a brighter, safer future.

Senator Peter Bunting is opposition spokesperson on citizen security and productivity and former minister of national security. Send feedback to peter@bunting.org.jm and columns@gleanerjm.com.