COVID-19 fallout could cost billions

Should half of Jamaica’s 2.8 million population contract COVID-19, the country could see a potential 47,600 fatalities and an estimated $1 billion in productivity losses.

This is according to a Ministry of Health & Wellness modelling projection of coronavirus impact that was seen by The Gleaner.

At the same time, health officials are surmising that if COVID-19 affects Jamaica more aggressively, the potential death toll could reach 66,640 taking into account a worst-case infection count of 1,960,000 people. The projection is based on the World Health Organization’s (WHO) fatality rate of 3.4 per cent for novel coronavirus infection.

With a less aggressive impact of the virus on the population, health officials have estimated that the cost of intensive care unit (ICU) treatment for 30 per cent of the 47,600 potential deaths would be US$628,748,400 (US$3,145 per person per day).

On the other hand, if COVID-19 has a more aggressive impact on the population, the cost of ICU treatment for 30 per cent of the estimated fatalities would be US$880,247,760.

Productivity losses could rise to an estimated J$39 billion with a more aggressive impact of COVID-19 on Jamaica.

The viral infection has had the most severe impact on the elderly population in countries hit hardest by the virus.

Approximately 13 per cent, or 364,000 of Jamaica’s population, are above 65.

Data on COVID-19 show 182,000 persons infected with the virus, resulting in 7,152 deaths with a little more than 79,000 persons recovering.