12-y-o among COVID-19 deaths as pandemic squeezes economy

The COVID-19 pandemic and measures introduced to contain its spread have continued to batter the island’s economy, with the Planning Institute of Jamaican (PIOJ) estimating an 18 per cent contraction in the April to June quarter compared with the corresponding period last year.

The news came as the island recorded two additional deaths from the pandemic, bringing the total to 38. The latest victims are an 80-year-old female and a 12-year-old male, both from Manchester.

Four more deaths in COVID-19-positive individuals are under investigation, the Ministry of Health and Wellness said last night.

Yesterday, the number of COVID-19 cases also increased by 114, making the total number of cases identified in the island 3,437. Recoveries also increased by 27, bringing total recoveries to 1,019.

Of the newly confirmed cases, there are 66 females and 48 males, with ages ranging from four months to 93 years. The cases were recorded in Kingston and St Andrew (47), Portland (14), Manchester (13), St James (12), Clarendon (12), St Catherine (10), St Thomas (2), St Ann (2) and Hanover.

LOWER DEMAND

In a quarterly report released yesterday, PIOJ Director General Dr Wayne Henry highlighted the crippling effects the pandemic was having on the island’s economy, noting that there was weakened consumer demand associated with lower income due to job losses and reduced work hours and continued slowdown in construction-related activities.

He said that the goods-producing industry contracted by an estimated seven per cent, with activities in the services industry declining by 20.6 per cent.

All goods-producing subsectors also declined, with mining and quarrying recording the greatest reduction of an estimated 25.2 per cent due to lower alumina production outweighing increased bauxite output. The closure of the JISCO Alpart refinery has resulted in lower capacity utilisation within the mining and quarrying industry.

In addition, the agriculture sector declined by 8.5 per cent; manufacturing, 2.9 per cent; and construction, three per cent.

As it relates to the services industry, four of the five subsectors declined, with hotels and restaurants falling by 87.5 per cent.

Henry said that this out-turn reflected a sharp decline in visitor arrivals resulting from the closure of Jamaica’s borders to incoming passenger traffic for two of the three months during the quarter and decline in the number of persons utilising restaurant services.

“This led to a significant falloff in stopover arrivals by 98.9 per cent to 7,188 visitors. Total visitor expenditure, at US$16.2 million, was 98.1 per cent lower than that recorded in the corresponding period of 2019. Restaurant services were also negatively impacted by measures implemented to stop the gathering of persons as well as the curfew implemented, which led to a reduction in opening hours,” the director general said.

The other subsectors contracting were transport, storage, and communication, down 29.6 per cent; wholesale and retail trade, repair and installation of machinery, down 20 per cent; electricity and water supply, down 8.8 per cent; and finance and insurance services, down three per cent, with producers of government services remaining flat.

The six-month out-turn for January to June is for the economy to contract by an estimated 10.2 per cent and by between eight and 10 per cent for the July to September 2020 quarter, largely due to the impact of COVID-19.

Henry said that the PIOJ estimates that the 2020-21 fiscal year will contract within the range of eight to 10 per cent.

“Growth is expected to resume during fiscal year 2021-22, given the cycling-out of the impact of the closure of the Alpart refinery as well as an expected reduction in the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic activities. However, gross domestic product levels are not anticipated to recover until two years after the pandemic,” he noted.