Dead heat in PNP presidential race

The race for the presidency of the People’s National Party (PNP) is going down to the wire, a new opinion poll has revealed.

A week before a vote is cast in the party’s presidential election, St Ann South Eastern Member of Parliament (MP) Lisa Hanna and St Andrew Southern MP Mark Golding are separated by a razor-thin margin, according to a poll conducted by Don Anderson and his team at Market Research Limited.

Hanna was the choice for 46.2 per cent of respondents, who were asked to name the person they would prefer to lead the floundering main opposition party at this time. But Golding was breathing down her neck, with 45.2 per cent of respondents identifying him as their choice to succeed Dr Peter Phillips.

In fact, Golding turned the tables – 45.9 per cent to 45.3 per cent – when respondents were asked to name the person best suited to lead the PNP at this time, based on a list of qualities that were identified.

The poll was commissioned by the Golding camp and surveyed 1,077 persons in all 14 parishes over a five-day period starting on October 24. It has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.

The findings suggest an eight percentage point swing in favour of the St Andrew Southern MP, who, up to six weeks ago, trailed Hanna 34 per cent to 26 per cent in an internal poll commissioned by the PNP and conducted by Anderson.

CAMPAIGN TACTICS

Golding’s campaign manager, Dr Dayton Campbell, believes the “credibility and freshness” of his candidate are the reasons behind the momentum.

“Previous to September 3, Mark had not even contemplated leadership, and had not spent any time marketing himself nationally,” Campbell said in a statement yesterday, referring to the date of the last parliamentary election.

“Comrades and the wider public have been introduced to an authentic, decent and patriotic Jamaican. The more we expose Mark and his track record, the more people respect and love him. The Go With Golding campaign has the momentum, and we anticipate that Mark’s appeal will continue to grow,” he added.

Calls and messages to Hanna’s campaign spokesperson, Donna Scott Mottley, went unanswered yesterday.

For political commentator Shalman Scott, the eight-percentage point swing over a near one-month period raises “serious eyebrows”, especially among those persons who understand the various elements that will determine the outcome of a public opinion poll.

“I am not here questioning what the pollster has found. I’m saying it appears unusual. It does raise eyebrows and raises curiosity about what would be the contributory factors that could cause such a turnaround in the fortunes of one of the contestants,” said Scott, a former Montego Bay mayor.

“What could have happened in 30 days for there to be such a dramatic turnaround?” he questioned, pointing to what he described as Anderson’s record of “hit-and-miss” polling.

SURVEY FINDINGS

According to the survey, 39 per cent, or the largest bloc of respondents, who view the St Ann South East MP as the person best suited to lead the PNP believe she is a people person, while 26 per cent see her as the person who can best unite the fractious 82-year-old political organisation.

Seventeen per cent believe she is more respected and 12 per cent say she will be more accepted by the people.

For Golding, 29 per cent of those who see him as the person to lead the PNP believe he is the person who can best unify the party, while 24 per cent said he is the “stronger” candidate.

Twenty-six per cent of respondents believe he is a people person, while 13 per cent believe he is the kind of leader the PNP needs.

Forty-eight per cent of respondents suggested that the PNP “stop the infighting” as part of the efforts to reverse the declining support from the wider society, while 45 per cent proposed that the party “reconnect with the people”.

livern.barrett@gleanerjm.com