POLITICAL AWAKENING

Pollster Don Anderson says the base of the opposition People’s National Party (PNP) appears to have awakened from its slumber and is showing a renewed interest in the political movement.

The findings of the survey, which was commissioned by the PNP and conducted by his Market Research Services Limited team, were released at a PNP-hosted press conference on Tuesday.

The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent, found that if an election were called today, 30.2 per cent of Jamaicans would vote for the PNP, while 25 per cent would vote for the governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP). In February, a similar PNP-commissioned poll conducted by Anderson and his team had shown both parties in a statistical dead heat – the PNP having 28.1 per cent of electors in its corner to the JLP’s 27.9 per cent.

MASSIVE LEAD

A year ago, an RJRGLEANER-commissioned poll had shown the JLP leading by a massive 13 points, with 31 per cent support compared to 18 per cent for the PNP.

Anderson said the apparent awakening of the PNP’s base accounts for the pep in the party’s step.

“I keep making the point that divided parties don’t win elections, and one of the first things the [PNP] would need to do is to portray a greater degree of unity,” Anderson said in a Gleaner interview when asked how the PNP could capitalise on its momentum.

“There is no question that the Government has lost a lot of its shine, and if you look at the history, between 2011 and 2020, [some] 160,000 persons [fewer] voted for the PNP. Over the same period, the JLP (Jamaica Labour Party) lost 4,000,” he noted.

In the 2011 general election, the PNP won 42 seats to the JLP’s 21. By 2020, the JLP had 49 and the PNP 14. The glaring difference, Anderson noted, was the number of persons who voted for the PNP in 2020 compared to 2011.

“That the JLP has 49 seats now is directly related to the PNP losing 160,000 persons. I am seeing from the February polls that we did, a kind of coming back of some of those 160,000 people. So it’s not that the JLP lost necessarily, but the PNP gained. So the PNP is making inroads into its own base which had gone silent,” he explained.

The June 2023 poll shows that some 44.8 per cent of the electorate remain undecided or do not intend to vote, a slight increase from the 44 per cent in February. Last year June, that figure stood at 51 per cent.

With the majority of Jamaicans believing that the country was heading in the wrong direction, Anderson said he cannot recall conducting a poll anywhere where the result was dramatically different.

Some 53.3 per cent responded in the negative, while 31.1 per cent said things are about the same or there was no change. Those who said Jamaica was heading in the right direction amounted for 15.6 per cent.

Anderson said that this question usually records the highest percentage response of well into the 40s, acknowledging that 53.3 was rather high.

“It does matter which Caribbean country. People are always thinking negatively about the country,” he explained, however. “It is traditional that a number of people think that the country is going in the wrong direction. An opposition party will latch on to it as it suggests that the Government is not doing the right things.”

Meanwhile, buoyed by the findings, the PNP said it would not be sitting on its laurels.

LEAD OVER JLP

“We have continued in the trend we have seen over the last 12 months, wherein the fortunes of the party with the Jamaican voters have increased significantly to the point where we now enjoy a lead over the JLP of a little over five per cent ... ,” President Mark Golding told journalists.

“This is a significant improvement, close to 100 per cent over the 12-month period for the PNP. Similarly, the JLP’s fortunes have declined steadily over the period, and hence, having more or less caught them up in February this year, the PNP has now surged ahead. While encouraged by this, we are by no means complacent. We do not take this for granted, and indeed we recognised that we have more work to do,” he added.

“By no means does this mean that our work has been completed,” PNP General Secretary Dr Dayton Campbell remarked after the findings were presented.

The governing party labelled the poll as contrived and fictitious.

“The poll is sponsored by the PNP and its findings are designed to artificially influence public opinion. The release of a party-sponsored poll is part of the PNP’s propaganda and misinformation campaign intended to shore up a weak leader, sow discontent, and distract the country with political mischief ... ” JLP General Secretary Dr Horace Chang said.

But Campbell fired back, saying that posture is unfortunate.

“When a poll was done last year and we (PNP) were 13 points behind, we did not question the credibility of the pollster. The fact is that we commissioned the polls, we paid for the polls, we agreed to the questions. We don’t tell the pollster when to start or where to go. He does that,” Campbell said.

erica.virtue@gleanerjm.com