Analysts: Golding faces destiny-defining PNP conference

With no overseas guest set to address the public session of the People’s National Party (PNP) 86th annual conference today, President Mark Jefferson Golding will take the spotlight. This event might be the final major gathering of this magnitude before the next election, and while the party is calling it “Golding’s moment”, analysts argue that it’s more than just a notable occasion – it’s a pivotal one.

Just shy of four years since becoming leader, it is also Golding’s first annual conference leading into a general election.

“The spotlight is entirely on the party leader. Firstly, it is his conference, then the Comrades’ conference, and together, it’s Jamaica’s conference. This is an election conference for the PNP. This election will not go [full] term to September 2025,” PNP General Secretary Dr Dayton Campbell told The Sunday Gleaner on Friday night following the completion of the first of two days of private sessions.

“The party leader will be articulating his vision and some plans, bearing in mind that many plans [executed] by the [current Jamaica Labour Party] Government were PNP manifesto ideas. So we are careful what will be shared, but he is very aware of the political climate and that the country is in full political campaign mode,” Campbell said.

While not revealing any details about the nature of Golding’s message for today, the general secretary said that it was intended for the entire nation.

Political commentator and publisher Lloyd B. Smith believes today’s address will be the most consequential so far for Golding.

“... He has been trying to build an image of the leader in charge of the party, and he has been stressing the fact that the party is united, which means he has a greater command of what was a very fractious body. Therefore, he should now be in a position to focus primarily on policies and whatever direction that he as leader will want to take the party in terms of it wanting to form the next government,” Smith, a former member of parliament elected on a PNP ticket, told The Sunday Gleaner on Friday.

“I think the country knows sufficiently about him by now. Much of the baggage he carried with respect to his citizenship matter is now settled,” Smith added, referring to Golding’s announcement last week that he had completed the renunciation of his British citizenship which he acquired at birth.

“So outside of any information from the Integrity Commission reports, he appears to be squeaky clean without a lot of baggage. But the fact is, he has never faced the electorate in a general election, and as party leader. It means he has to define himself: What does he want to accomplish and what does he bring to the table as against Prime Minister Andrew Holness, who is an experienced political campaigner?” he further reasoned.

Smith believes it will be a “tall task” for Golding, who he noted was still young to political leadership and took over a party badly divided by internal leadership challenges.

“He has to use the conference to sell himself as the genuine and effective alternative to Andrew Holness. This can only be achieved if he focuses on a vision – policies in terms of what the PNP will be bringing to the table – and I hope that he does not spend a lot of time tracing or excoriating the JLP (ruling Jamaica Labour Party). People are tired of that and it’s an overkill,” he added. “He has to show us the beef and not just the skeleton and not reduce issues of conference to crowd size.”

BIG MOMENT

Trade unionist Helen Davis-Whyte agrees with much of Smith’s views, but offered her own advice.

“I understand why the party would put the focus on Golding, given the political climate and the results coming out of the local government elections. They didn’t win, but they are clearly more united and would have been pleased with the results of the local government elections under his leadership. Persons felt he could not have taken the party far, but the results proved them wrong. So, I think he is now fully solidified and established in that position as leader,” she told The Sunday Gleaner.

It is on that basis that Davis-Whyte believes the party has made the right decision to “focus on the leader and present him as someone who can deliver a victory for the general election”, which she, too, believes is very close.

The PNP has only won once in four general elections since 2007. The polls are due every five years, but since 2007, all have been held early. The JLP is in its second term since 2016 and the next polls are constitutionally due in less than a year.

“So, he cannot only speak to the members, but to the country as well, especially remembering that the PNP’s conference comes before the JLP’s. I think they must put the ruling party on the defensive in terms of what he and the PNP have to offer. He has to go close to presenting a manifesto. It is a big opportunity/moment for the leader and party,” the trade unionist suggested.

Going forward, Golding must become prime-ministerial and appeal to more uncommitted voters, whose numbers have been steadily rising as many shift to non-voters, Davis-Whyte said, noting that many teenagers would have come into adulthood knowing only a JLP government in power, similar to what obtained in the P.J. Patterson years, when the PNP ruled from 1989 to 2007.

In 2020, only 37 per cent of Jamaicans voted in the election, which was held at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Davis-Whyte said more Jamaicans must come off the wall and become involved in the process, noting that the continuous disengagement is a danger to democracy.

“So, they cannot afford to slip, or they will slide, as they have no largesse to give. They must demonstrate in tangible ways they will be different from the JLP both in philosophy and with governance,” she suggested.

PHILOSOPHICAL PUZZLE

Political scientist Dr Paul Bourne believes that the PNP and its leader are in a difficult position philosophically, struggling to define themselves.

“He (Golding) needs to define himself and determine what the PNP base wants and deliver that. He needs to deliver a manifesto that not only resonates with the PNP but the general public. He is not a charismatic or transformational person by virtue of his personality – all of those things will be a problem for him,” suggested the university lecturer.

Bourne said an announcement days ago that Holness now holds a doctorate and the holding of nomination day for the St Ann North Eastern by-election in the week leading up to the PNP’s conference showed a clear strategy to take some of the spotlight from Golding and the PNP.

“What you have is a JLP fighting for the academic class, one which heavily supports the PNP. The academic class will never slaughter their own, and even if they disagree, they would rather not say anything. Holness, moving into that rank – as are several other JLP politicians also doing doctoral studies – is political genius by his handlers to split the academic base, which has strongly supported the PNP. So, the announcement was a genius political campaign move. Plus, he is a bit more confident and charismatic despite the political baggage of alleged corruption which defined several years of his administration,” Bourne argued.

“The problem the PNP is having is trying to redefine [itself] ... . It cannot call itself socialist or capitalist, as its history and base bore the brunt of the political trauma and economic destabilisation between 1976 and ‘80 when it was declared democratic socialist. The PNP can’t utter those words or even insinuate their thoughts and that has frustrated its academia support for years. That is a big part of Golding’s problem,” Bourne argued.

Golding, an experienced businessman, cannot sell capitalism as it will wipe out the party’s base, who are largely socialists, and will invoke the political wrath of external forces if he goes liberal.

“I believe that situation is frustrating the PNP and Golding, and that is why what he says today is of so much importance to himself, the PNP, and Jamaica,” Bourne suggested.

Meanwhile, the general secretary said Friday’s private session heard reports from officers, regions, arms, affiliates and commissions. At Saturday’s private session, the general secretary accounted for his stewardship and the policy commission conducted a workshop. Both sessions opened and closed with addresses from Golding.

Today’s session will be marshalled by PNP Chairman Dr Angela Brown Burke.

erica.virtue@gleanerjm.com