Small turnout for big win

Just over 10 per cent of electors turned out in North East St Ann on Monday as the Jamaica Labour Party’s (JLP) Matthew Samuda secured his place as the nation’s newest member of parliament (MP).

With a voter turnout of 11.6 per cent, Samuda secured 4,838 votes to independent candidate David Anderson’s 222 and the 30 received by Chase Neil of the United Independents’ Congress of Jamaica.

Samuda succeeds the JLP’s Marsha Smith, whose resignation on September 3 necessitated the by-election. Ahead of nomination day on September 7, he resigned as senator and minister without portfolio in the Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation.

The 11.6 per cent turnout equates to 5,090 of the 43,800 electors on the voters’ list and represents a nearly six percentage point fall compared to the turnout for the last by-election in the constituency.

Former MP Shahine Robinson was first elected in 2001 and re-elected twice before she was forced to step down in 2010 because of her dual citizenship status. After renouncing her United States citizenship, she reclaimed the seat in a December 20, 2010 by-election in which there was a 17.4 per cent turnout. Robinson secured 5,082 votes to beat Devon Evans of the Marcus Garvey People’s Progressive Party, who polled 1,081 votes. As occurred yesterday, the Opposition People’s National Party (PNP) did not contest.

Samuda’s 4,838 votes represent less than 50 per cent of the 10,000 votes it was recently reported that he hoped to pull out on election day, which would have topped the 9,169 votes Smith received to win in the 2020 general election.

“I expect to carry Shahine Robinson’s legacy on to victory and will work very hard to achieve that,” Samuda said in an interview on Television Jamaica on September 5, two days before nomination day but after the PNP had already indicated it had no intention to field a candidate.

Despite the lack of competition from the PNP, the relatively low turnout of voters carries significant meaning, according to one political commentator.

Linton Gordon, who is also an attorney-at-law, said he believed the low voter turnout should be viewed as a clear message to the incumbent JLP.

Gordon said it was customary that, when there is no significant or serious challenge from one of the main parties, voters don’t take a by-election seriously and just a few turn out.

“On the other hand, where the incumbent or the party in power is under pressure, it goes the extra mile to call out as many of its supporters as possible to give the impression that there is no decline in popularity, there’s no decline in support and, if possible, there is a sign that there is solid and constant support. I think the JLP tried that,” Gordon told The Gleaner last night.

In the weeks leading up to the by-election, Prime Minister Andrew Holness and other members of his Cabinet made several trips to North East St Ann to shore up support for Samuda.

“The fact that they never succeeded in moving up to 15 per cent [voter turnout], or thereabout, is indicative that their popularity or support has declined for whatever reason and that is a signal alerting them that all is not well and you need to find out what is wrong in the camp why you were ignored,” Gordon said.

editorial@gleanerjm.com