Most Jamaicans expect election by June

A plurality of Jamaicans say they do not care when a date for the next general election is announced even as the country’s two main political parties charge their election machinery for what is expected to be a hotly contested poll.

Asked when they felt the next general election will be held, 27 per cent of the 1,012 respondents in the latest Don Anderson opinion poll said they did not know or care.

At the same time, 20.2 per cent of respondents believe that Prime Minister Andrew Holness will announce a date between January and March next year; 17.4 per cent said it would not be announced until next September when it is constitutionally due; 15.7 per cent have picked between March and June; 11.9 expect a date to be announced before the end of the year; and 7.9 per cent said it would be called after September.

The poll, conducted by Anderson’s Market Research Services Limited (MRSL) between September 27 and October 3, has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent at the 95 per cent confidence level. Jamaicans aged 18 years or older participated.

Anderson said non-aligned, publicly traded private-sector interests assisted in financing the research, the parameters of which were determined solely by MRSL.

Campaign activity

Yesterday, the veteran pollster said that while the next general election is not constitutionally due before September 2025, the level of campaigning activity suggests that it is unlikely that the election will go to term as scheduled.

Anderson said the majority of respondents interviewed echoed this view as cumulatively, over 52 per cent said the election would surely be called before the end of June next year.

This is broken down among the 13 per cent who feel the announcement is imminent, that is before the end of this year; 22 per cent who feel it will be between January and March 2025; and the 17 per cent who feel it will be during the second term of 2025, that is between April and June 2025.

There was no indication as to whether any respondents expected the election in July or August.

“Those expecting it to be called by March next are largely PNP (People’s National Party) supporters, suggesting a higher state of perceived readiness,” said Anderson.

He said 44 per cent of the PNP supporters feel this way.

“But there is also a solid body of JLP (Jamaica Labour Party) supporters who feel it will be before March next year, 28 per cent echoing this position,” said Anderson.

He said another 20 per cent of JLP supporters also feel the general election could be called before the end of the second quarter of 2025.

Anderson said over 60 per cent of PNP supporters expect it to be before the end of June compared to 47 per cent of the JLP supporters.

In principle, Anderson said there is a strongly held view that the general election will not go to full term.

At the same time, the majority of Jamaicans polled indicated that they would definitely vote or are quite likely to vote in the next election.

Respondents were asked to consider everything and then indicate how likely they were to vote whenever the general election was called.

Some 41.8 per cent said they definitely intended to vote, and 11.4 per cent indicated that quite likely, they would vote. Cumulatively, that is 53.2 per cent of respondents.

Conversely, 18.1 per cent said they definitely would not vote, and 5.2 per cent said that quite likely, they would not vote. Meanwhile, 23.5 per cent said they may or may not vote.

“There has been growing concern about the number of persons who have been turning out to vote in elections, whether general or local. Against this background, the stated intention to vote in the next election is appreciably higher than what we have seen in the last few elections,” said Anderson.

However, he noted that traditionally, voter intent is never supported by actual voter turnout and certainly not in recent elections.

He said there is the view that this high voter intent is a function of keen political interest at this time but noted that this tends to wane and not be realised on election day for one or more reasons.

“It is interesting to note, nonetheless, that both sets of supporters evince, at this time, a strong intent to vote, with 66 per cent of the supporters of the respective parties saying they will be going to vote.

“Correspondingly, those who say that they are unsure they will go out to vote are equally represented by the PNP and JLP supporters,” he said.

Yesterday, former Director of Elections Orette Fisher said he expects voter turnout for the next general election to be higher than the 37 per cent in the September 3 General Election in 2020 at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2016, it was 48.37 per cent.

Fisher believes that respondents who say they will quite likely vote will, in fact, do so on election day. He said this will push the turnout to upward of 50 per cent.

“While not where we want it to be as Jamaicans, I think it would be more in keeping with what one would hope as opposed to being in the 30s. If we are able to have a 50 per cent or higher turnout I think we can be optimistic in terms of the way forward,” said Fisher.

He said that in relation to the 18.1 per cent who indicated that they would not vote, that figure is more likely to increase than decrease come election day.

“Usually, such persons are not attracted to either of the political parties, and so they tend to say six of one half dozen of the other, so it doesn’t really matter in their opinion as to who is running the country. Things like they don’t see how they benefit personally, and so they usually stand by their position,” Fisher said.

kimone.francis@gleanerjm.com