PNP gains ground
Anderson poll reveals opposition party’s growing popularity over ruling JLP
Published:Sunday | October 27, 2024 | 12:14 AMRochelle Clayton - Staff Reporter
As the countdown to the next general election continues, the opposition People’s National Party (PNP) appears to be gaining ground over the governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), according to the latest opinion poll by the Don Anderson-led Market Research Services Limited (MRSL).
In the national survey, which captured the voter intent of 1,012 Jamaicans aged 18 years or older, 39.3 per cent indicated that they would be more inclined to vote for the PNP when the election is called, while 30.2 per cent said they would likely cast ballots for the JLP.
The figures amount to a 9.1 percentage-point lead for the PNP, the widest margin the PNP has held over the JLP in recent months.
At the same time, 28.4 per cent of respondents shared that they were still unsure who would get their votes. The remaining 2.1 per cent are ready to vote for a third political party.
The survey was carried out from September 27 to October 3 and has a margin of error of +3%/-3% at a 95 per cent confidence level.
Anderson noted that the research was funded by non-aligned, publicly traded private-sector interests, with the survey parameters determined solely by MRSL.
In breaking down the poll results, Anderson told The Sunday Gleaner that the PNP’s lead over the JLP “represents a marginal increase of just over 1.3 [per cent] since the last published poll of April 2024”.
He further noted that more youngsters have also indicated their intention to vote for the PNP, compared to previously commissioned polls.
Young voters
“More persons in the age group 18-24 now say they will vote for the PNP, a factor which has helped to shift the overall support for the respective parties. As a result, the PNP now has good levels of support across the age groups. There is relatively no difference in the level of support for the parties by gender,” Anderson explained.
Anderson noted that historically, the JLP had maintained a substantial lead over the PNP in polls conducted by MRSL between 2018 and 2023, often averaging over a 10-percentage point advantage, peaking at 16 per centage points just before the 2020 elections, in which the JLP secured a landslide victory, winning 49 out of 63 parliamentary seats. The PNP won the remaining 14 seats in that contest as no third-party or independent candidate was given the nod.
“The poll results clearly indicated that the writing was on the wall,” Anderson said in relation to the 2020 general election.
“This pattern of JLP dominance was reflected in polls up to 2023 though it was noticeable that the gap in stated support for the respective parties had narrowed by the middle of 2023. This was partly due to a number of unpopular decisions made by the JLP regime, including the salary increases granted to MPs (members of parliament) and officials of both parties, amid a contentious decision regarding other public-sector salary decisions. This was the largest single factor [that] began to erode the public support for the JLP Government,” Anderson told The Sunday Gleaner.
Anderson further highlighted a notable change in voter intent at the start of 2024, when the JLP’s lead shrank to just one percentage pont prior to the local government elections.
“The results of the February 2024 local government elections were a direct reflection of the poll findings over this period ... . Both parties claimed victory in that election, the JLP winning more parish councils and the PNP winning the popular vote. This represented a serious reversal of the trends in the poll findings from 2018 to 2023, during which time the JLP appeared to be invincible,” he added.
Retired JLP politician Derrick Smith expressed scepticism about the poll’s accuracy in predicting voter intent as the general election approaches. While questioning the timeline of the survey, he pointed out that it was commissioned “about 12 days after the PNP conference”.
The former Cabinet minister told The Sunday Gleaner yesterday that should the governing JLP continue on its current path, “when the electors are at the point where they have to make a decision, they will begin to reflect on the positives that this administration, under Andrew Holness, has done over the last few years”.
He further noted that Jamaicans have seen “the downward trend of murders, ... record-low unemployment, a stable dollar, and controlled inflation” in addition to infrastructural developments across the island.
“Don’t pay attention to the hype coming out of a party conference or the distraction as a result of the Integrity Commission’s report to Parliament, which is being contested in the court,” he added, referring to the September 17 tabling of a report in relation to Prime Minister Andrew Holness’ finances.
WANING PUBLIC CONFIDENCE
Conversely, Ronald Thwaites, a retired PNP politician and former Cabinet minister, interpreted the poll results as indicative of political fatigue. He suggested that public confidence in Holness is waning compared to the perceived freshness of PNP leader Mark Golding.
“The political momentum has shifted in favour of the People’s National Party. It is not an unusual phenomenon in Jamaica’s political history. There is a certain fatigue that the public feels after an administration has served for two terms,” Thwaites told The Sunday Gleaner yesterday.
“The Government has scored a number of own goals in recent months – they seem to multiply quite quickly. The reduced confidence in the prime minister is a major factor in comparison to the freshness of Mark Golding, who doesn’t carry the baggage that the prime minister has at this stage. Leadership is always a significant factor in people’s political choices,” Thwaites added.
Meanwhile, Dr Christopher Charles, professor of political and social psychology at The University of the West Indies, Mona, told The Sunday Gleaner that the national mood has swung in favour of the PNP for multiple reasons.
“It is a mixture of the work the PNP is doing on the ground and the governance problems plaguing the country with a Government touting achievements that the people are not experiencing,” he reasoned.
He cautioned that while the PNP is in a favourable position, it still has significant work to do to convert this support into votes.
“The majority of voters have made up their minds about which party they will vote for in the forthcoming general election. People usually vote based on the quality of governance they experience. Election campaigns only matter when the election is close. The PNP is in a good position, but not an excellent one, because the party is yet to put forward transformational policy ideas around which most Jamaicans can converge. The PNP also needs to convince the voters that it will fix the problems that have made the current Government unpopular,” said Charles.