Democracy at risk?

Eighty years after Universal Adult Suffrage was granted to Jamaicans on November 20, 1944, voter disengagement has become a serious issue. While every Jamaican over 21 years old, who is not incarcerated or mentally incapacitated, has the right to vote, political participation has steadily declined. This growing disengagement is now a major concern for political parties, academics, and electoral officials alike.

Professor Christopher Charles, a political and social psychologist at The University of the West Indies (UWI), Mona, argues that the continued erosion of voter participation could “turn democracy on its head”.

He explained that Jamaicans have lost confidence in the political system because they do not see politics improving their lives.

“There is an issue with governance, and people don’t see politics impacting their lives in a positive way. So it (voting) is left to hard-core supporters,” Charles told The Sunday Gleaner.

This growing apathy, according to Charles, means that only the most dedicated supporters, or “hardcore” voters, are turning out. As voter turnout decreases, political parties end up responding primarily to their loyal base, giving them more leeway to govern without considering the broader public.

“The outcome is left to these supporters who respond to the beck and call of their political masters,” Charles said. “That turns democracy on its head, because, in a democracy, the politicians are supposed to respond to the people.”

While the decline in voter turnout is not a direct threat to democracy, Charles argues it weakens it, as governance is increasingly left to a small, unrepresentative group of voters.

When Jamaica held its first election under Universal Adult Suffrage in December 1944, some 389,109 out of 663,069 registered voters participated, resulting in a turnout of 58.7 per cent.

Participation improved over the coming years and, by 1980, participation averaged about 82 per cent per election. The People’s National Party boycotted the 1983 general election and, when Jamaicans were summoned to vote in 1989, there was a 78 per cent turnout.

Since then, there has been a precipitous fall, with an average general election turnout of 52 per cent between 1992 and 2020, with an all-time low of 38 per cent in 2020.

By-elections have also been shunned by many voters, with the recent contest in St Andrew North Western seeing a historic low turnout of six per cent.

The growing apathy has prompted academic studies on the causes and effects of this trend. The Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies (SALISES) has initiated a national study to understand political disengagement in Jamaica.

ERODEN TRUST

Professor Lloyd Waller, director of SALISES and co-principal investigator of the study, told The Sunday Gleaner that political apathy has eroded trust in institutions, with widespread disillusionment among citizens.

“This study sought to not only find out why people don’t vote but what can encourage them to vote,” Waller said.

The study also aimed to identify demographic and ideological factors influencing voter behaviour.

Waller said while the data analysis has not yet started, the research has so far revealed that there are several groups of voters in Jamaica, each with different attitudes towards political engagement. Waller noted three main categories of voters: diehards, those who vote strictly based on party allegiance; issue-based voters, who prioritise governance, leadership, and economic performance; and the apathetic middle, who are disillusioned by corruption but may still engage with politics if parties address governance issues effectively.

Waller highlighted a particularly interesting finding from the study: for voters in the middle group, corruption is a big issue.

“The ones on the extreme right and the extreme left, they do not business about the corruption, and they are on both sides. They vote for the party regardless, because you get the benefit from it. But the ones in the middle, which I found so fascinating, they are like the ones on the extreme. They’re not diehard and they like issues like governance and performance and other things, like roads and water, basic rights. Corruption is only an issue when you’re not doing your job. Yes, they’ll turn a blind eye if you are keeping with the promises, and I can tell you this from the focus group: They won’t have a problem with you being corrupt, insofar as you’re doing your job,” he told The Sunday Gleaner.

The study also focused on how political party conferences might influence voter behavior. Waller’s team conducted surveys before and after the Jamaica Labour Party’s (JLP) conference, to measure its impact on voter intentions. While the results indicated that political events might briefly shift public sentiment, they found that opinions typically returned to their original state after the events. This suggests that while party conferences can generate temporary excitement, they do not significantly alter long-term voter apathy.

Charles said the the declining voter turnout for national elections will have a deleterious impact on governance.

“There are several things. Voter turnout at the national level has been declining. One way to look at that is that the reason for that is that the people don’t really have a choice … because both parties are on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreements and are following the neoliberal path. So there is no real choice,” he explained.

“So, people will not be as interested as they were in 1980 when the country was divided and people were looking in different political directions. Then, people were more interested in that way. So that’s one reason for the general low turnout. Then the issue of the quality of governance, which has been declining,” he reasoned.

“If the voter turnout is going down and the quality of governance is going down, it is a loss for both [major parties], but, when you are in power, yes, it’s a bigger loss. It’s worse for you. When you are the incumbent, and when you’re in an election, you don’t expect them to put all the stops and only bring out even 37 per cent in a general election,” he argued, pointing out that a low turnout signals a failure in government legitimacy.

Charles said many people, including politicians, often misunderstand voters, noting that they do not need a university degree to know how the economy is impacting them or whether the country is being efficiently run.

“You’re seeing it, you’re feeling it. So, obviously, we have to make a distinction between announced policies and actual policies. So the Government will make announcement and do things, but ... the actual policies do not have the kind of impact that came with the announcement. And that is what makes people vote or not vote.

“So, where the JLP is concerned and how the people see them, ‘prosperity’ is a word rather than experience. ... They’re only hearing the word. It’s a brand that has not manifested in their lives,” he explained.

According to Christopher Henry, head of the PNP Patriots, the sense of political disillusionment is widespread among younger Jamaicans, especially young professionals.

“Many believe that the two parties are two sides of the same coin; that there’s no real difference between my party, the PNP, and the JLP, and that it doesn’t make any sense for them to vote,” he said, reflecting a sentiment of political fatigue.

“I think, though, that, in 2020, which had 37 per cent voter turn-out, was an anomaly, in my view, because of COVID, and a lot of people stayed home for health reasons,” he added.

Henry is expecting the voter turnout for the upcoming general election to better the 2020 showing.

He pointed to issues such as the affordability of housing, which has become a major concern for young professionals. While new developments are being built, many young people, especially in the public sector, cannot afford them, he said, criticising the National Housing Trust (NHT) for outsourcing its mandate to private developers, leaving young Jamaicans with limited affordable housing options.

“The houses aren’t there at all. A lot of the housing that is there is apartments. Developments by private developers who take properties that are outside the reach of young professionals,” Henry said. “What is adding more insult to injury is the fact that the NHT has been repurposed from offering low-interest mortgages. Young professionals are forced to go to banks and pay high-interest mortgages they can barely afford.”

This frustration with governance, including issues like crime and low wages for professionals, is further fuelling the sense that politics is not working for ordinary Jamaicans.

He said The Patriots and the PNP Youth Organisation will be pushing to encourage more young Jamaicans to exercise their franchise in the upcoming polls.

Shane Kerr, president of the JLP’s Generation 2000, did not accept a Sunday Gleaner invitation for interview.

erica.virtue@gleanerjm.com